Archive for Uncategorized

Updated Consensus Ranks: Catcher

It’s time for the updated catcher ranks.

I do actually like the process of ranking players. It’s enjoyable to weight different inputs, and consider a player’s long-term track record as well as their short-term work. I like taking a look at the few things that stabilize quickly — contact and swing rates, and (soon) batted ball mix — and looking for legitimate change in the early season.

But it does seem to get us all riled up. And that can be exhausting.

It’s cool, it’s the way of the world. But the number one thing that seems to drive a lot of the discussion is power. And almost every power metric takes a long time to stabilize. Hit a couple of home runs and suddenly your ISO looks fine. Drive a few balls and your batted ball distance improves. As the weather improves, the balls go further.

So it’s not that worrisome to me that Jonathan Lucroy’s power is down. You didn’t own him for power anyway, and he’s still just as likely to hit ten out. Brian McCann doesn’t jump in the rankings because of the homers — well not because of the homers themselves, but because they represent possibly decent health — and Miguel Montero looks to be about the same as ever (with a ground-ball asterisk).

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Updated Consensus Ranks: First Base

It’s time to update the rankings!

Hopefully these rankings will allow you to find your own buy-low and sell-high opportunities. The disagreements between our different rankers should help. Jeff Zimmerman’s rankings are largely built upon a mix of Steamer and ZiPs, Zach Sanders has his own secret sauce, and Mike Podhorzer and I are a little more intuitive, even while we both use the projections as a basis. Hopefully we are representative of the different types of fantasy managers out there.

The first basemen shuffled the cards around a bit, but the elite are still the elite… except for one Anthony Rizzo, who is zooming up the ranks. To the point where we are wondering if he’s the number one fantasy first baseman going forward. Well, someone knew it was coming, and yet that same someone wouldn’t yet make Rizzo the number one guy. There are still the matter of his strikeouts and his final batting average.

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Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 5.13-5.19

Let’s first start with results:

Week 1: 1-3, 30 IP, 3.00 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP (Kevin Slowey, Ubaldo Jimenez, Joe Saunders)
Week 2: 2-3, 25.1 IP, 5.69 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP (Joe Blanton, James McDonald, Eric Stults)
Week 3: 1-2, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (Wade Davis, Carlos Villanueva, Patrick Corbin)
Week 4: 2-1, 22 IP, 6.14 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 1.95 WHIP (Julio Teheran, Jason Hammel, Garrett Richards)
Week 5*: 1-1, 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 4.9 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 1.09 WHIP (Scott Diamond, Nick Tepesch, Andrew Cashner)

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Total: 7-10, 127.2 IP, 4.16 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.41 WHIP

Last week got pretty ugly, though the strikeouts were certainly a welcome addition in light of what this crew has accomplished so far this week.  Read the rest of this entry »


Taking a Look at Changes in Contact Rate

Back in 2009, Eric Seidman wrote a piece here that looked into when samples become reliable for certain statistics. The piece was based off work done by Pizza Cutter. You can read the piece here for a full explanation of how the conclusions were reached, but below is a list showing how many PAs it takes for a statistic to become reliable. Read the rest of this entry »


Scheming For Relief: Rosenthal, Blevins and Delabar

Fantasy baseballers in non-holds leagues often look past middle relievers who don’t appear to be in line for saves. But these late-inning arms can provide support in the wins, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and even K/BB categories for those in alternative formats.

Here are three middle relievers who could help you stabilize a few categories in your standard non-holds leagues.

All ownership percentages reflect Yahoo! leagues.

Trevor Rosenthal | Cardinals | 15% – Trevor Rosenthal became a household name late last season when his rocket of an arm first went on display in the bigs. Based on this showing, industry analysts quickly pegged the fireballer as the favorite to succeed Jason Motte for ninth-inning duties in St. Louis when Motte went down with what would eventually be a torn ulnar collateral ligament. And Mike Matheny provided Rosenthal with the opportunity to do so, but he blew two saves in his first four outings, resulting in Edward Mujica’s ascension into the Cardinals’ closing role.

Despite the fact that Rosenthal may not get the nod in the ninth frame doesn’t suggest the right-hander isn’t valuable for fantasy purposes. Sure, a large portion of the 15% of leagues that own shares of Rosenthal are likely to be holds leagues where he carries the most value, but it’s time for owners in all leagues to consider adding the 23-year-old for steady production in the strikeout and ratio categories.

Rosenthal’s 30.9 K% isn’t exactly Kimbrelian, but it places him among the top 25 relievers with at least 10 innings on the hill — and it reeks of upside. His current 2.95 ERA (2.85 FIP) and 1.31 WHIP also leave a lot to be desired — especially if you’re adding him for ratio support — but it appears he’s made some strides as of late. In Rosenthal’s last six trips to the bump (5.2 IP), he’s posted a 0.00 ERA with a 0.76 WHIP and a 33% K%. Seems helpful, right? It is.

Parlay the fireballer’s recent success with the understanding that he has just 41 major league innings under his belt and he has the potential to be a future closer.

Jerry Blevins | Athletics | 4%  – Blevins, the Athletics’ 29-year-old southpaw, is 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA (1.78 FIP), a 0.71 WHIP and a 27.9 K% in just over 18 innings of work. He’s missing bats and inducing weak contact at career rates — 12.5% SwStr% and 25% IFFB% respectively — meaning his stuff is either better than ever or he’s due for some regression. In addition to the spike in swings-and-misses and weak contact, Blevins has earned more fly ball outs in ‘13 (50% FB%) versus his career (43.7% FB%), but luckily, most are falling in the field of play (4.2% HR/FB — also a career best).

Blevins may get bit by the regression bug sooner-or-later, but in the meantime, allow him to provide your team with some scab wins, strikeouts and ratio support. Leaving a middle reliever like Blevins in your starting lineup is a relatively low-risk strategy to gain an edge in those categories since they pitch so few innings per week.

Steve Delabar | Blue Jays | 2% – Speaking of scab wins, Delabar is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA (2.83 FIP) and a 28.2% K%. Fantasy owners love the three scabs wins, but we can’t expect them going forward since there is a bit of luck associated with them. The downfall for the 29-year-old is an unimpressive 16.5% BB% — the root of a 1.35 WHIP — but sometimes we have to take the good with the bad. Streaming middles like Delabar in deeper rotisserie or head-to-head formats is an intriguing strategy for owners looking for a few extra strikeouts and some possible wins.


Is Roy Halladay Done Done?

It looks like Roy Halladay is done — at least for a while, as he is expected to hit the disabled list with a shoulder problem — but the real question is if he is Done. He’s about to turn 36 and he’s aching in the worst body part for a pitcher. Just how bad is this news?

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Trades in a Vacuum

One of the most popular questions I get on Twitter is something along the lines of “Was just offered player X for player Y. Should I take it?” And I always do my best to answer, but the reality is analyzing a trade without a ton of context is really tough.

Where are you in the standings? Are you building for this year or next? Who else is on your roster? Are there other offers out there? Without answers to these questions, and quite a few others, any answer I give requires an asterisk: warning – trade advice woefully short of information. But, like I said, I still try to answer, so I thought I would provide some color on how I analyze ottoneu trades when presented without context.

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The Power Will Not Return for Adrian Gonzalez

At the beginning of last year, we took some heat for leaving Adrian Gonzalez near the top of the first base rankings. Our reasoning, if I can speak for the consensus ranking crew, was that power takes the longest to stabilize and we didn’t know for sure whether or not the power was going to come back. The player himself said his shoulder didn’t hurt any more. As the season progressed, the truth became more obvious, and he dropped in the rankings.

Going into this season, we had three consecutive half-seasons of evidence that his power was gone. We dropped him in the rankings, and I even made a bet that the other former Padre first baseman — Anthony Rizzo — would outperform him this year. Now the player himself has admitted what we’ve known for a while and suspected for even longer.

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Scheming For Relief: The Lesser Owned Lefties

Alarm goes off. Slam snooze. Slam snooze again. Wake up. Grab some coffee. Flip on the laptop. Check your fantasy baseball team(s). Check the box scores. Navigate to Fangraphs. Rummage through the leaderboards. Sort. Analyze. Grab a second cup of coffee then sort again.

It’s a vicious cycle. But we all do it, right? Right? Maybe it’s just me, but, I’m eternally on the prowl for something different when scouring the leaderboards.

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The New Nate McLouth

Dude is 31 years old. Nate McLouth probably isn’t a new player. But there are reasons to believe in him, to believe in the changes he’s made.

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