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Know When to Fold’em

Last week, I sent out a tweet (Follow me! @chadyoung) asking readers & ottoneu enthusiasts what they wanted to see in this space this week. Amidst a handful of “should I trade this guy for that guy” responses, came this:

‏@ChikeErokwu: How/when do you know you’re a contender for the year? Is there a point/date benchmark? I’d like to see a story about that.

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Roto Riteup: April 30, 2013

On this day 20 years ago, CERN announced that the World Wide Web would be free to everyone. Let that sink in as you read this on your desktop, laptop, tablet or phone.

On today’s agenda:

1. The return of Hanley Ramirez
2. Brandon Beachy watch
3. Wilson Ramos is back
4. Friendly reminder regarding Carlos Ruiz
5. Stephen Strasburg’s forearm tigthness
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Let’s Talk About Justin Masterson

Perhaps I should have written this piece last week. Because last week, Justin Masterson had a sub-two ERA and people were talking about him and his new approach against lefties. Then again, this week he still has a 2.25 ERA and he’s ostensibly the same person. That’s the whole problem with believing in him, though — he’s still the same person.

In order to believe in change in an established pitcher, I want to see something change. Velocity. Pitching mix. Pitch usage. The quality of a pitch. First-pitch strikes.

I see none of these changes in Masterson, and least not at a level that would make me interested in a mixed league.

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Scheming For Relief: Deep(er) League Holds and Whiffs

When possible, we try to avoid one-trick ponies in fantasy baseball. That’s why hitters like Mike Trout, Carlos Gonzalez and Andrew McCutchen are as valuable as they are — they’re balanced and typically contribute to each of the traditional five hitting categories. But when honing your search for the perfect middle reliever in your deep holds league, the task becomes a bit trickier. In order to get the best bang for your buck, you want to look for the middle reliever who can earn the scab win, grab a save when the anointed closer has the night off and posts eye-popping whiff rates.

Let’s take a look at the four middle relievers who currently have at least one hold with a K% of 30% or better and a fifth reliever you should be paying attention to.

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Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 4.29-5.5

Let’s first start with results:

Week 1: 1-3, 30 IP, 3.00 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP (Kevin Slowey, Ubaldo Jimenez, Joe Saunders)
Week 2: 2-3, 25.1 IP, 5.69 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP (Joe Blanton, James McDonald, Eric Stults)
Week 3 (incomplete): 0-1, 19.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 1.19 WHIP (Wade Davis, Carlos Villanueva, Patrick Corbin)
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Total: 3-7, 74.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.35 WHIP

In the words of the NBA Jam announcer, “He’s heating up!” But in all honesty, this week has been a lot better in a lot of ways, most notably in strikeouts and limiting baserunners. Now to just get some wins going here. Read the rest of this entry »


Kicking Rocks: These Trade Winds Blow

I don’t know if anyone has told you people yet, but it’s only April and the data we are looking at right now comes from what is known around these parts as a very small sample size. What that means is that there are still five more months….yes, months….of baseball still and numerous players will receive anywhere from 400 to 500 more plate appearances between now and the end of the season. Take a moment. Drink that in. Think about it for a few seconds. And while you do, remember this: a bad trade reputation spreads a lot faster around your league than a good reputation. Unless your league is filled with complete idiots (and that may very well be the case for some of you), your testing of the waters with ludicrous trade offers that you yourself would never accept in a million years is going to potentially come back and bite you in the ass. Read the rest of this entry »


Early Batted Ball Distance Gainers and Losers

Those of us who write for Rotographs know that inspiration is all around us. I have all sorts of places I often look for something to write about, including ongoing ottoneu auctions, recent call-ups, and more.

But nothing “inspires” me more than players whose struggles are sinking my fantasy teams. And this morning, I am writing an article looking at fly ball distance, inspired by Jay Bruce.

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Anthony Rendon Is Healthy And In The Bigs

Any long term discussion about Anthony Rendon is full of caveats:

Yes, but He can’t stay healthy — he hasn’t put up more than 160 plate appearances at any level or in any calendar year. Yes, but he’s probably a third baseman and the incumbent is pretty good — no matter how bad Ryan Zimmerman’s throws look, there’s still a first baseman signed to a fairly decent contract staring at Zimmerman accross the diamond. Yes, but we don’t know how good the power will actually be — power takes the longest to stabilize, and Rendon has not yet put up a one-year, one-level sample that’s big enough to really be predictive.

Yeah those caveats are all fine and good, but Anthony Rendon is healthy and in the big leagues. Right now.

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Pitchers & Catchers to Exploit, Avoid When Chasing Steals

The value of a stolen base may vary from daily site to daily site, but on the site where I play my daily cap contests, a steal is worth five points. Throw in the fact that a runner has to get on base to be able to steal another one and a steal becomes worth seven or eight points. And that’s assuming they don’t come around to score or do anything else in their other plate appearances. You could certainly do worse than seven or eight points from a slot. Needless to say, I like guys who can run a little (or a lot) in daily leagues.

In order to be able to better pick base stealers in daily salary cap formats, I decided to look at the pitchers and catchers who are the most and least friendly to base stealers. Read the rest of this entry »


Middle Relievers: Holds, But No Free Passes

As we approach the end of week three in fantasy baseball, it’s probably safe to say we can do a decent job of evaluating our team’s strengths and weaknesses. The general rule-of-thumb encourages owners not to panic too early with regards to our stars, but now could be a good opportunity to try and acquire some middle relief as a throw-in via trade (to an owner that IS panicking) or simply from the waiver wire.

Thus far, there have been 77 relievers who have earned a hold. But, there have been just four middle relievers who have notched at least three without allowing a free pass. Now we’re talking! Some are willing to accept the fact that “holds guys” are there to earn you “holds” and will sacrifice their ratios and whiffs to acquire said holds. Don’t settle for mediocrity. Get the reliever who will positively contribute to as many categories as possible.

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