As a contractual obligation, the present author would like the reader to be aware of that fact Andrew Cashner is starting today. Plan your fantasy roster and baseball game viewing pleasures accordingly.
On today’s agenda:
1. A solid month from Melky Cabrera
2. John Lackey continues to impress
3. Anibal Sanchez’s gem
4. John Danks‘ return from the DL
Read the rest of this entry »
Let’s first start with results:
Week 1: 1-3, 30 IP, 3.00 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP (Kevin Slowey, Ubaldo Jimenez, Joe Saunders)
Week 2: 2-3, 25.1 IP, 5.69 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP (Joe Blanton, James McDonald, Eric Stults)
Week 3: 1-2, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (Wade Davis, Carlos Villanueva, Patrick Corbin)
Week 4: 2-1, 22 IP, 6.14 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 1.95 WHIP (Julio Teheran, Jason Hammel, Garrett Richards)
Week 5: 2-2, 30 IP, 3.60 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP (Scott Diamond, Nick Tepesch, Andrew Cashner)
Week 6: 2-3, 32.2 IP, 4.96 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP (Justin Grimm, Juan Nicasio, Hector Santiago)
Week 7*: 1-0, 17.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP (Julio Teheran, Phil Hughes, Scott Kazmir)
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Total: 11-14, 189.1 IP, 4.37 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP
I’ll sum up this week so far in just three words: (redacted) Scott Kazmir! Read the rest of this entry »
Recently I’ve taken a look at early season changes in contact rate and fly ball rate because of Russell Carleton’s research showing we’ve reached the point in the season where the sample for those statistics has become ‘reliable.’ There has been some debate in the comments about what reliable means and how much the small season sample can help us in predicting what a player will do the rest of the season.
I look at it like this. For the statistics that have crossed that reliability threshold, we can look at the players who have seen the biggest changes in either direction and feel safe that their skill has improved or decreased to some degree. That doesn’t mean regression isn’t coming. It just means that at the end of the year it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a player with an improvement or decline from their career mark in a particular category. Although the improvement or decline at the end of the year is not likely to be as extreme as it is at this point in the season.
Today I want to look at the hitters who have seen the biggest changes in ISO because a fair number of players have now crossed the 160 AB threshhold shown in Carleton’s research. Below are the guys who have seen the biggest increase in ISO. After that, we’ll examine whether some other statistics back up the power surge. And a little bit later we’ll see if we can’t figure out how much regression to expect. Read the rest of this entry »
The injury bug continues its rampage through the backend of bullpens across Major League Baseball. The most recent victims, the Atlanta Braves, lost two of their most reliable middle relievers this decade to season-ending elbow surgeries. Without Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty — who combined for 447 appearances and 160 holds since ‘10 — Braves skipper Fredi Gonzalez will be signaling for different arms during the middle innings.
And with a fresh set of faces trotting to the bump, the fantasy baseball community — more specifically those in holds leagues — should be able to find some hidden gems in the Atlanta ‘pen.
Let’s take a look at the middle arms currently on Atlanta’s 25-man roster.
We’re coming to an end of the series! We’ve pushed the consensus bullpen ranks over to the Bullpen Report guys, so they’ll have that to you soon. But for these four rankers, this episode is drawing to a halt. You can find all the updated ranks on your right, linked in that helpful little box.
The ranks, and the comments, have provided us with content for the coming weeks. Thank you for communicating which players are the most divisive. That allows us to know exactly which players we should be breaking down, RotoGraphs style. Add to that our timely coverage of players in the news, and we’re set.
Pitching changes on a dime though. While hitters give us their customary four or five plate appearances in a game, pitchers give us roughly five times that information every time they appear. So it’s fair that we break down every appearance for them and weight recent work heavily. And yet, every pitcher has a baseline, and we know how luck, park and weather factors can influence any one matchup. So we have to keep their careers in mind.
Whatever happened to the power of positive thinking? Obviously it’s a lost art form when you’re talking about a certain percentage of fantasy baseballers. If you recall a Kicking Rocks piece I did during the spring called Draft Characters, you’ll remember the outline I provided of the different types of people you’ll likely face in the war room on Draft Day. The first “person” discussed was the Know-It-All — the guy loaded with information and always willing to endow you with his wisdom. Well, what I didn’t tell you is what happens to this person once the season begins. The best way to describe it is to equate him to a petulant child who just learned the word ‘no.’ No player you like, does he like. No trade that you make, would he make, and heaven forbid you play with him in a league where you vote on trades. The transformation takes place shortly after the start of the season and your league know-it-all sadly becomes The Naysayer. Read the rest of this entry »
Ever since the boss, Mr. Eno Sarris, showed me how to use the VLOOKUP function in Excel, I can’t stop comparing recent numbers to past rates. The function makes it easy to put this season’s numbers in one sheet, past season or career numbers in another sheet, and then pull the past numbers and place them right next to the corresponding season numbers for any sample of players.
Instead of billing a client from 1:15-3:05 yesterday afternoon at work, I toyed around comparing 2012 and career fly ball rates to 2013 numbers. I chose those two because we’re at the point in the year where most qualified hitters have a sample of 80+ balls in play, which is the point at which FB% stabilizes according to Russell Carleton.
The first thing I looked at was whether the hitters with the highest fly ball rates in 2012 had seen a shift so far this season. The idea was that the guys who cut down on the fly balls would see a corresponding rise in average given that fly balls go for hits somewhere in the neighborhood of 13%-15% of the time, while ground balls are hits roughly 25% of the time and line drives about 71-73% of the time. Read the rest of this entry »
Should you short stop or just stop short? This year the position feels like it’s an injury magnet, even if the evidence doesn’t necessarily point to shortstops being injured more often.
But there you have Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Derek Jeter dropping because of injury. That’s allowed players that are not even performing well — Asdrubal Cabrera, I’m looking at you — to move up just because they didn’t go down with an ailment. Health is a thing. Troy Tulowitzki always had number one talent, and his health makes him number one now.
That isn’t to say that there aren’t any superlative performances that have pushed the needle. Ian Desmond is proving last year was no fluke, Josh Rutledge has shown enough power and speed for most of us to believe, and Jean Segura — though not a 25 homer hitting shortstop — has exceeded even our semi-lofty expectations. Maybe Andrelton Simmons will be next.
Third base is slowly creeping up on first base in terms of production. At least in standard twelve team leagues, look at the elite guys. One of them used to be an elite first baseman even. Where you might suffer a little in power when compared to the first basemen, you add a little speed with David Wright and Chase Headley. And where some first basemen make you choose between power and batting average, third base has some guys like Adrian Beltre and Aramis Ramirez that are good in both categories.
That said, once you drop out of the top ten, there’s been plenty of movement. New stars are on the rise — Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado skyrocketed — and some young players have cemented their status — Kyle Seager and Josh Donaldson come to mind. Mike Moustakas is missing some power, Ryan Zimmerman can’t get healthy, and Hanley Ramirez boasts both problems.
Still, this is a position that is likely owned into the low 20s even in twelve-team mixed leagues, because third basemen make decent corner infield fillers, and occasionally even man a utility spot.
Second base. Where you stick your shortstops that fail defensively and your third basemen that can’t hit. Second base, where a little agility can turn a tweener bat into an every day asset. Second base! Where fantasy team dreams go to die.
Second base. Where you hope you’re in a 16-team league or less, because the 17th-best second baseman might not hit .230 the rest of the way. Second base, where a guy like Darwin Barney — who may not hit six homers or steal six bases or hit .280 — may yet figure in to your deep league plans.
I make fun, but at least some sleeper two-baggers have shown us enough to solidify the back end in traditional mixed Leagues. Josh Rutledge has his flaws, but he’s already shown power and speed. Chase Utley has a degenerative knee condition, but he’s doing well for now. Neil Walker and Howie Kendrick haven’t been vintage Neil Walker and Howie Kendrick, but it wouldn’t kill you to run them out there for a while. Especially if you’re waiting for Aaron Hill, who showed enough in a short sample sophomore effort in Arizona to be exciting.
