Trades in a Vacuum

One of the most popular questions I get on Twitter is something along the lines of “Was just offered player X for player Y. Should I take it?” And I always do my best to answer, but the reality is analyzing a trade without a ton of context is really tough.

Where are you in the standings? Are you building for this year or next? Who else is on your roster? Are there other offers out there? Without answers to these questions, and quite a few others, any answer I give requires an asterisk: warning – trade advice woefully short of information. But, like I said, I still try to answer, so I thought I would provide some color on how I analyze ottoneu trades when presented without context.

1) If you aren’t getting the best player or the best value, you are probably doing it wrong. In any deal you make, you are trying to do at least one of two things – you are building for now or you are building for the future. If it’s the former, you probably wan’t to make sure the best player in the deal is coming to you; if the latter, you want the best value. If you are getting neither, you probably don’t want the deal.

2) If a guy is injured, do not trade for him with the expectation that he will be back as scheduled or at full strength. In one of my leagues, someone recently traded for Ryan Madson, when other closer options were on the table. Yes, Madson is on a rehab assignment, but who knows how that will go, if he will suffer a set-back, etc. And I am not even getting into a question of whether or not he will be a closer when he finally does return. If you are trading for a player on the DL or even a player who is banged up and hasn’t played in a few days, assume things are worse than the reports suggest. Considering Jason Heyward? Don’t expect him before June. Thinking about Andrew Bailey? Factor in a DL stint. If they come back on time, all the better – you get a bonus. But if you EXPECT them to return quickly and they don’t, you have probably lost the deal already.

3)When in doubt, get the younger and cheaper players.ottoneu is a game of value as much as it is a game of production, and any time you can get younger and cheaper, you are likely making a good move. Obviously the production and talent have to figure into this, but almost any team can benefit from getting younger and cheaper. That said, do not mistake youth and low price for value. An established player at a good price with a track record of success can still be young enough and can still qualify as a great value. I was asked about a deal the other day involving Adam Jones and Dexter Fowler, and the first thing I noticed when comparing the players was their birth dates: 8/1/85 and 3/22/86. Jones established himself a couple years back, has a solid track record and seems like a veteran. Fowler seems like a guy with the promise to someday become Adam Jones (and maybe today is that some day, based on his start). But despite this disparity in perception, Jones is less than eight months older than Fowler. Trading the “older” player here to get “younger” is a waste.

Finally a couple tips if you are ask me (or any other fantasy writer) to review a trade you are considering: First, let us know your intention – trying to add power? Selling an abundance of speed? Building for next year? All of this matters. Second, let us know how this will impact your lineup (if you can). Trading Miguel Cabrera for Ryan Braun could be a great deal if you have David Wright on your bench and your fifth outfielder is barely rosterable. But if either guy would be your Util, and you are just swapping one for the other, a lot of other factors come into play.

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A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's is the Managing Editor for RotoGraphs, and can be heard on the Keep or Kut Podcast. You can follow him on Bluesky @chadyoung.bsky.social.

92 Comments
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CJ
13 years ago

I have a stacked outfield in a 12 team league, Trout, Cargo, A.Jones and Bruce. Some via trade. My pitching staff is decent but not great. A guy has Greinke and Weaver and he is in 11th place. If I trade an outfielder and a lesser pitcher, I’d have Ryan Howard in my utility spot. I sent Jones and Quintana, rejected and I sent Howard and Peavy, rejected. He countered for Cargo and Peavy, which I rejected. What would you send, if anything?

James
13 years ago
Reply to  CJ

I wouldn’t trade for either Greinke or Weaver, both are question marks due to health or age this season. You sent a few fair offers and it looks like this guy doesn’t want to play ball. Don’t reach for those two pitchers.

CJ
13 years ago
Reply to  CJ

My league is a 12 team head 2 head non-keeper. My offense is good all around except Perez at my catcher spot. Encarnacion, Kinsler, Beltre and Zobrist are my other position players.

Dan
13 years ago

What about trading for position of need? Would you sell for less than full value to make your team more well rounded? For instance, my pitching is well above average so I traded gio Gonzalez for Jose altuve. Not fair value in a vacuum but considering my 2b are walker and matt carpenter (who I like for his multi pos eligibility) I thought it worked out well.

criffrock
13 years ago

i have hanrahan bailey and hallady on the dl with beachy in my dl slot. is harahan worth keeping and also doc?

Cliff

Johnny Come Lately
13 years ago
Reply to  criffrock

I’d drop Halladay yesterday. Shoulder injuries are the worst for pitchers.

Raff
13 years ago

When posting questions on fantasy forums like this, what’s the best way to do so? Is there a standard set of phrases to describe your league? Like, “12-team, head-to-head, no-keepers, standard 5-by-5” would be a clear and necessary preface to any question?

Thanks.

PR
13 years ago

in a dynasty league, i trade Ryu for Kipnis. Was that an ultimate buy low sell high or my thinking too much?

Nate
13 years ago

I’m in a a4 team standard points league and currently considering the following trade. My pitching is excellent IMO, but offense is struggling.

Give
Matt Moore
Paul Konerko

Get
Evan Longoria
Mark Reynolds

I would slot Longoria at my CI, moving Mark Trumbo to the OF and slot Reynolds at the 1B spot.

Nate
13 years ago
Reply to  Nate

*14 team and by standard I mean the points set-up. And that’s just an assumption since this is the only one I’ve played in, but it seems fairly standard points set-up from what I’ve read.

Nevin
13 years ago
Reply to  Nate

I wouldn’t do it if your league counts -1 for hitter Ks. Reynolds will be a killer.

Nate
13 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

Trumbo moves from CI to the OF to replace Ichiro or Chris Denorfia and Moore is replaced by matchups plays between Estrada, Millone, Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, or Jason Marquis. Also Have Gio Gonzalez, CC, and Verlander. With Garza returning eventually.

And yes we have the -1 for K’s during ABs

Sean
13 years ago

I just dealt Max Scherzer for Matt Cain. The guy was obviously scared that Cain would not be back, and he loves Scherzer’s strikeouts. Did I just trade away one of the best K guys for a pitcher on the decline? Or did I just steal Matt Cain for a 7th round pick?

FS54
13 years ago
Reply to  Sean

You picked Scherzer with a 7th round pick is more impressive than trading him straight up for Matt Cain. I think Cain will bounce back.

AF
13 years ago
Reply to  Sean

Good trade for you.

k_r_i_s_k_o
13 years ago

14 team keeper, the best catcher on the wire is ryan doumit and I have Jesus Montero. Hitting categories are R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, and OPS. I’m thinking of offering Jesus + Kyle Seager for Kipnis and McCann. 2B is so shallow that I’d even replace Seager with Alex Gordon if he wants. Any thoughts? I do need another 2B/SS so Kipnis also fills a need

AF
13 years ago
Reply to  k_r_i_s_k_o

How many keepers? Unless you can keep your whole team, Montero has very little value right now — he’s not looking like a top-100 player now or in the future. I can’t see the other guy making that trade.

k_r_i_s_k_o
13 years ago
Reply to  AF

I’m very deep in the outfield so I am getting Kipnis and McCann one way or another. We have 5 OF spots in our league and he has 2 holes every day because of injuries and stashing a prospect in one of the OF spot.

3 keepers.

k_r_i_s_k_o
13 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

Seager qualifies just at 3B, lol McCann isn’t that great. It’s not a flat out steal like you’re making it out to be especially in a league with five outfielders. Also he might ask for Adam Jones, I’m not sure yet. And I already said that the best available catcher is Ryan Doumit and his .086 ISO

k_r_i_s_k_o
13 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

Thanks for the lengthy response Chad. Just wondering about Jesus Montero, any chance he turns it around? I’m looking at the numbers and I can’t figure it out. His .220 BABIP is interesting and he is also hitting less GB and hitting more flyballs compared to last year. The LD% is way down this year though compared to 2012 (24.6% vs 16.9%).

mymaus
13 years ago

Great article! In my H2H 5×5 each cat redraft league and am thinking about punting average. I do fine on R’s and SB’s. HR and RBI are current weakness. I have noticed there are many guys on WW who have either have HR/RB or SB/R. Is punting average a good strategy? If so, do you think a trade of my Mauer, Lee, Melky, Rios for his Napoli, Scherzer, Stanton, Bruce is fair or insulting? I could substitute Kershaw for Lee. Would that then be an over pay?

Nevin
13 years ago
Reply to  mymaus

Serious underpay. You’re basically telling him, “give me all your power guys, and I’ll give you back a catcher from a bad offense who’s all batting average, a pitcher with a similar-to-worse strikeout rate for a worse offensive team so that you drop in wins, a borderline unplayable outfielder who’s hitting .260 with no power just like he was before his unexpected burst of power and subsequent PED bust, and one balanced worthwhile guy in Alexi Rios who’s not going to lead at any one category. For that, give me the expected top power hitting catcher from a dynamic offense and good park; a top 5 K pitcher backed by a strong offense; and 2 of the 5 or so legitimate threats for 40 HRs”. You’re offering him nothing with high ceiling, and taking nothing but ceiling guys in return. You gotta bring the expectations of your own guys down, or give more back.

mymaus
13 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

Thanks for the comments. Does Kershaw instead of Lee make it fair?

Rags
13 years ago

But how do they breathe?!?

Jordan Tuwiner
13 years ago

In an Ottoneu league. Have David Wright at $33, and Nolan Arenado at $6. I am in 3rd place and will contend this year, but also want to build for the future. Deal Wright or keep Wright? I have no true weaknesses on my team, besides maybe my pitching staff (Gallardo, Latos, Fister, Miley, Jackson, Grimm, Tillman, Cueto).

Jordan Tuwiner
13 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

Thanks for the response, Chad. Before Arenado was called up I was using a mix of my bench in the UTIL spot, basically whoever had the best matchup/splits from: Melky Cabrera, Vernon Wells, Travis Hafner, Leonys Martin, and Vernon Wells.

Yeah, I may deal Wright + a SP for a better SP.

tylersnotes
13 years ago

whenever i read trade q’s i always want to know “who would you be able to drop/pick up from waivers if you didn’t make this trade?” it’s one thing to say i need 2b help and salary room and want to trade Andrus at $17 for Kipnis at $11, but if i could drop Keppinger at $4 for Raburn off waivers, maybe that’s the better deal.

What info would fantasy experts prefer to have to make better trade recommendations– info that would fit neatly in a tweet, for instance.

Matt
13 years ago

Got offered Salvador Perez for Patrick Corbin. I need a catcher and am very deep with pitching. Do you think its good to sell high on Corbin since he is on my bench anyway?

KB
13 years ago

Been offered Shields/Rivera for Craig/Beachy. My SP is so terrible that I felt the need to start Capuano last night. I also only have one no-doubt closer at the moment with Chapman since Frieri could lose the 9th in the near future. Based on Beachy and Rule #2, I’m assuming you’d accept?

KB
13 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

It’s a 16-Team H2H, 25 man rosters + 4 DL. Craig is currently one of three OF in my everyday lineup. Votto is 1B. Would be a big hit on OF for the time being w/ Ross, Swisher, DeJesus and Werth remaining – but I am stashing both Taveras/Myers. And I find that OF is always the easiest thing to replace in this league – players like Jay, Rasmus, etc. currently available in FA. You can start 4 RP each day, Holds are a category. Current RP are Smyly, Chapman, Frieri, K. Jansen, Doolittle w/ Fujikawa on DL. Holds are strong but Saves could be real weak real quick if Madson returns. Right now my top pitcher is Samardzija followed by Slowey and then a horrid trio of CJ Wilson, Felix Doubront and Edwin Jackson. There are no better SP to pick up.

KB
13 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

Thank you! Very quick. Very helpful.

PillsburyFlowboyMember since 2024
13 years ago

in my redraft roto league i’m currently leading in every pitching category but wins, so i had some pitching to spare. my rotation was kershaw/darvish/latos/smardzija/cahill/milone. my offense has been lagging due to an accumulation of injuries and suckitude, so i traded latos/headley (still have panda at 3b)/balfour for stanton/matt carpenter/pettitte. and then stanton immediately gets hurt. do i still win? when i made the trade it felt like i did and now a bit less so.

PillsburyFlowboyMember since 2024
13 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

headley was my util, yes. carpenter is filling in until bourn comes back. since he got injured ive been hurting in stolen bases too…

mervdiddyMember since 2017
13 years ago

In a 12-team league with limited (4 max) keepers. 6 cat (standard batting + OPS, standard pitching + QS). I’m pretty stacked at 1B (Pujols, Craig, Rizzo, Berkman, Belt in a league with one 1B and two UTIL spots) and my starting pitching is great but could use some depth to be more dominant in W/K/QS. Is it crazy to move Rizzo for Matt Moore, knowing I’ll be on the wrong side of the return to mean for both this season? Would give me a rotation of Verlander, Medlen, Brett Anderson, Moore, Shelby Miller, Minor, Fernandez, AJ Griffin, and eventually Beachy.

mervdiddyMember since 2017
13 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

It’s a strange pitching league. Since there aren’t Holds and there are QS, about half the managers have punted RP to focus on the other pitching categories. It’s head to head, and I’ve been 3-2 in ERA/WHIP/Ks and 2-3 in W/QS so far. Other than RP (Rodney + Rosenthal), only glaring need is probably 3B depth behind Panda or OF (currently going with Holliday/Craig/Crawford/Werth with Taveras and Billy Hamilton stashed away).

mervdiddyMember since 2017
13 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

Yeah, definitely getting worried about Hamilton as well. Thinking his value might be highest now and could be worth dangling as trade bait.

Bart
13 years ago

I’m in 12 team standard 5×5 league with 5 OF and 3 Util spots. My 5 OF’s are Cargo, Ichiro, Hamilton, Reddick and Span and Util spots are Ozuma, Smoak, Duda and Hafner on the bench. Is now the time to try to trade Hamilton (sell low?) and get a Choo or Gordon or should I hold him and wait for him to get hot and then try trading him later on?

Joey Belle
13 years ago

When trading prospects for prospects, do you give a premium to ETA? is quantity better than quality? For example, would you trade 2 prospects ranked in the 20’s for 1 in the teens? Also, I never know whether to trade a guy like K.Wong (closer but worse) for a guy like A. Russel (further away but better).

CarRamRod
13 years ago

What do you think about McClutchen for Longora? I have Headley in a utility slot and my fifth outfielder is Nick Markakis (small league). I want to add speed (sbs, runs) but obviously not sacrifice too much in the process.

Hunterfan
13 years ago

12 team roto, standard categories, yahoo format. Had Arenado, Panda, and Headley in a league where there are no MI, just 2 utility spots. My catcher was Gattis with Doumit like players available on the waiver wire. Pitching mid pack. Traded Headley for McCann and Gallardo. Getting buyer’s remorse. Did I do ok or bad trade?

The Rajah
13 years ago

Dynasty points league where there is no cost to keep a player from year to year. I have McCann and Arencibia at catcher and would like to trade one for a quality arm. Whom would you keep?

Aaron
13 years ago

14 team dynasty mixed league. In a vacuum, Posey for McCann and Strasburg. Who wins that deal this year? Who wins that deal in the future?

Nick
13 years ago

In a mixed 12 team league, 4 Keepers, 6X6 with 5 OF spots 2UTIL spots and no bench. My OF; Trout, Cargo, CarGomez, BJ Upton, with Stanton, Eaton and Bourne (who should be activated thursday?) on the DL. Im in 6th place, need RBI help and am totally fed up with BJ Upton and Ike Davis. They’ve played their way off my squad and i want to package them for a different outfielder or MI combo. I was thinking something along the lines of Upton and Davis for Jay Bruce straight up sounds good, with Bourne and Eaton replacing Upton’s STL’s and Bruce replacing Davis’ power, but maybe something more ambitious, like a Hamilton, Gyorko package could work. Any thoughts? Thanks.

Kemper
13 years ago

16-team H2H standard 5×5, 5 keepers. Getting impatient with Kemp (who can’t be kept at end of season). Is it time to look around for a Choo at this point? Really worried about him. Other OF (play 2 of these) are Victorino, Gardner, Kubel, Seth Smith.

chongo
13 years ago

I am picking up Josh Willingham; I need to drop ONE of three pitchers- Haren, Volgelsong, or McCarthy- to make the transaction. Which pitcher seems the least likely to return to their former levels? I just need a steady, Quality Start guy, not a super elite season saver (I have plenty of other pitching). Haren seems better but still not trustworthy; Voge has been terrible and so has McCarthy.

Steve
13 years ago

Deep 12 team weekly H2H 5×5 categories league. My Cingrani for his Ortiz? I need hitting help, but don’t have a ton of pitching depth (strong up top, but don’t have any bench pitchers at this point).

Springfield
13 years ago

Took over a team in a keeper league this year and the cupboard was left dry. I won’t contend this year and am looking to build for the future. I was offered Billy Hamilton (19th rouhd) for Howie Kendrick (16th round). My other 2B is Kipnis and, as previously stated, I’m not too worries about contending this year. Make the trade?

Steve
13 years ago

Any thoughts on my Cingrani for his Ortiz in a deep keeper 5×5 weekly H2H league? A few points 1) Ortiz only qualifies at UTIL in my league, 2) I have strong pitching, but not much depth, and thus sometimes need help in Ks and Ws, 3) It’s unlikely I’d keep Cingrani given my other potential keepers.

Greg
13 years ago

I’m looking to buy Ike Davis or BJ Upton low and sell Cuddyer high.

Is Cuddyer for Upton fair in a 5X5 head to head league?

What about Cuddyer for Ike Davis?

My other OF are Carlos Gonzalez, Alex Gordon, Angel Pagan, and Duda (I think he breaks out this summer)

Matthew
13 years ago

I just traded Adrian Beltre and Vernon Wells for Manny Machado and Adam Jones. I also just picked Headley off waivers because someone thought Arenado would do better. My outfield used to be Alex Rios, Austin Jackson and Vernon Wells. Think I got the better end of the deal?

Jay
13 years ago

18 team keeper (H2H points) 25 man roster no DL. Pitcher wins worth 10 points. Pitcher heavy emphasis. I am a second year team in the league. Started with nothing. Traded Goldschmidt, Archer, Cobb and Odorizzi for Bautista, Encarnacion, Lee and Santana. Flipped Bautista and Harrell for Shields and Harrell. I have Lee, Shields, Guthrie, Santana, Davis, Masterson, Cingrani, Cashner, Happ and Harrell. Other people in the league think I made a mistake flipping Bautista. I have a strong offense without him. Was trading Bautista a mistake? Thanks

Jay
13 years ago

Mcallister not Harrell was part of my Shields trade.

Jay
13 years ago

Forgot to add this . I am in win it now mode. 260 salary cap . I increased my salary by about 50 dollars.

Jake
13 years ago

I was offered Mat Latos and Taijuan Walker for David Price in a 16 team dynasty league and have pretty good pitching, C. Lee, Fister, and Cain. I accepted the deal in hopes that I gained a future ace and with Latos still being 25 he may not have hit his ceiling. Good deal for me or not?

Morgan
13 years ago

What is Adrian Gonzalez’s trade value? I am in 10 team Mixer with 5 keepers per team. I am loaded at OF with Trout, McCuthen, Carlos Gomez, Bautista and Eaton on the DL. I also have Goldie at 1B.

I am looking to move Gonzalez for an upgrade in the IF (Rutledge, Segura, Carpenter, Gyorko and Porfar).

What can I get for Gonzalez?