Is Roy Halladay Done Done?
It looks like Roy Halladay is done — at least for a while, as he is expected to hit the disabled list with a shoulder problem — but the real question is if he is Done. He’s about to turn 36 and he’s aching in the worst body part for a pitcher. Just how bad is this news?
David Murphy, writing in his High Cheese blog for philly.com, might have put the central question best in his stream-of-consciousness style reaction to the news that the Doc will have to see more doctors:
To say that Halladay is “injured” is to suggest that there is something about him that can be fixed. Since last summer I have gotten the sense that Halladay knows that whatever is wrong with his body is irreversible, and that his only option is to grit his teeth and make some changes and battle through. Shoot, it might not even be accurate to say that there is something “wrong” with his body. His body is acting quite normal for a human body its age.
If you knew nothing about the current news, you’d be forgiven for thinking that Halladay was just naturally aging and that he could right the ship somewhat. After all, he has the highest swinging strike rate of his career, he’s not even a mile per hour off of his fastball velocity from last year, and his ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio — though lower than it was earlier in his career (over two in Toronto) — remains unchanged from his work in 2012 (1.39 last year, 1.31 this year). It’s just that he’s averaged a walk rate under two per nine for ten years and suddenly he’s walking a batter every two innings.
But that last thing is really strange. Of course, it takes a half a year for walk rate to stabilize for pitchers, but watching the Doc flail in the zone is novel. And the walk rate peripherals are no kinder to him. He’s never had a first-strike rate under 60% (that’s usually where the league average sits), and now he’s in danger of falling below 50% in that category. Batters aren’t reaching on pitches, either, so they’re not helping by turning balls into strikes for him.
We could look into his cutter usage (it’s down) and try to see which pitch is failing him. Or try to dissect his heatmaps. It certainly doesn’t look like he’s got no more usefulness left if you’re just looking at his stats.
But the mere fact of his age (35+) and going on the disabled list for a shoulder injury, that mere fact is a harbinger of doom. Players over the age of 35 that went on the DL for any sort of shoulder injury only averaged 59 innings over the course of the rest of their career. So if Roy Halladay pitches 60 innings next year, he’ll be ahead of the game.
There are worse ways to slice the numbers. Of the 62 old pitchers that have gone on the DL for a shoulder injury since 2002, 32 never pitched another inning. 44 of them never managed 50 innings over the rest of their careers. A grand total of six starting pitchers managed more than 100 innings — John Smoltz (106), Pedro Martinez (153.2), Kenny Rogers (173.2), John Burkett (181.2), Tim Wakefield (424.1), and Orlando Hernandez (438.1).
In other words, you’re banking on Roy Halladay to be Orlando Hernandez from here on out if you think he’s even got a full season left in his arm after this year. And Orlando Hernandez himself wasn’t that fantasy relevant for most of that time.
If you’re still looking for good news… let’s look at this by age. 35-year-olds had better outcomes: Only five of the 15 never pitched again. Another five never managed 50 innings. But two of the best outcomes on the list — Tom Gordon and Orlando Hernandez — first felt shoulder tweaks at 35. And 36 is okay, although already worse. 11 of 17 never pitched again, another two didn’t manage five innings, and Elmer Dessens, Pedro Martinez, Brian Shouse and Trevor Hoffman are the happy stories.
Still. When the last two years of the careers of Elmer Dessens and Pedro Martinez are your good outcomes, you aren’t in a good place.
If you have space on your DL, by all means carry the doctor. But if you need every inch of your roster, you may want to consider dropping him, especially in keeper leagues where you don’t need 59 more innings next season.
Thanks to Jeff Zimmerman for the DL query.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
It’s getting dusty here at work all of a sudden.
All it is is dust in the wind.
Interesting post but let me suggest that a comparison based strictly on age and some type of shoulder ailment requiring a DL stint may not be sufficient.
Most of the pitchers on Zimmerman’s list either never were especially effective pitchers or hadn’t been effective for quite some time. Others had chronic arm and shoulder problems of which the latest DL stint was the last in a long line. Precious few had enjoyed sustained, recent success without a history of arm woes, and those who came closest to that mark tended to pitch considerably longer than 59 innings afterwards – Al Leiter at 142.1, Pedro at 158.2 and Hoffman at 379.2.
None of that suggests Halladay has many years on the horizon, not when he’s about to turn 36. But it does paint a less gloomy picture. The odds may very well be against him, just not as high as one might guess from a comparator group of pitchers who were largely hanging on by a thread to their careers before the shoulder injury struck. In a keeper league, if you could pick him up on the cheap, that may be a worthwhile chance to take.
No MLB clubs were willing to give a chance to the likes of Damaso Marte, Jim Mecir and Curtis Leskanic (three of the pitchers on Zimemrman’s list). But assuming the Phillies don’t pick up Halladay’s $20 million option for 2014 and he becomes a free agent, I suspect some clubs will give Halladay every chance to get back on the mound.
It’s true that starting pitchers and 35-year-olds do better on this list. But if he has surgery, he’s done, and he said so himself. If he doesn’t have surgery, then he’s probably got less than 200 IP left, even when put among starters that were doing well before the injury and were 35 or 36. If I drafted Roy next year, it would be to be my final pitcher and I’d expect about as much of him as if I had drafted John Smoltz for his final year in Atlanta.
To me, that’s done done.
It’s also true that of all the 35 and 36-year-old starters, only one was really comparable to Halladay pre-injury and that was Pedro Martinez, who pitched 158 after surgery. If Halladay doesn’t need surgery there are really no good comparators in the group. Martinez was give three years after his injury to show what he had. Martinez didn’t accumulate more innings because he couldn’t get his arm fully restored after surgery.
Not sure about comparing Halladay to Smoltz who was 40-years old and had multiple breakdowns of his arm over the years. Interestingly, in his last year, Smoltz pitched reasonably well with a strong FIP but bad luck (hign BABIP, low strand rate). With better luck he may very well have pitched the full season.
Any pitcher with a shoulder problem is a risk and those who are older have that risk heightened, Halladay included. What he is worth in a fantasy league depends on the rules of the league. In my main league we keep 17-man reserves along with a 23-man active roster. It’s A.L. only, but if it was N.L., I’d likely hold on to Halladay for now.
I read this week that Chris Carpenter is thinking of making a bullpen comeback (ridiculous!). I know Roy has said he is done if there is surgery–but done, done may not be what it used to be.
OK, this is 90% conjecture and 10% data, but if you look at Doc’s Pitch f/x Game Charts, he started off the season with a lower release point than normal. After a couple rough starts, Doc started to inch his release point higher, finding more success as he did so against MIA, STL and PIT — there’s a noticeable difference from 4/3 vs. ATL and 4/24 vs. PIT — then after feeling pain at PIT, his release point was back down vs. CLE and MIA.
My guess is that to “save” Doc’s shoulder after last seasons’ DL stint, he and the Phillies tried to change his delivery to lower his release point. They were able to find a level where Doc could keep his velocity, so they gave it a shot, but it left the rest of his pitches flat. Being a gamer, Doc went back to the higher release in the MIA, STL, & PIT games, and ended up feeling a twinge, so he went back the lower release point at CLE/MIA.
That leaves the question as to whether he will ever be able to get that high release point back, or if his shoulder is so messed up structurally that he can’t keep that motion. My guess is that is that he’s going to be on the DL through June, trying to get that high release point back and build shoulder strength around release point. If he gets it back, he’ll be back, if not, he’ll probably hang it up.
If Roy Halladay said he was coming back as a sub-mariner, knuckleball pitcher or whatever reinvention he dreams up I would give him every chance to fail, but expect success. Roythebest.
wait, David Murphy has a blog?
Best case scenario he has a shoulder impingement, causing him to lower his release point and lose his command (perhaps movement as well). Maybe he can strengthen the arm and deal with it for a bit. But yeah, if he needs rotator cuff surgery, he’s probably done even if he decided to try to come back. First Johan, now Doc. Makes me sad.
If he has something like a frayed labrum, rotator cuff of just general weakness, one would think that once it is repaired / stabilized he’d be able to compete after rehabilitation. if he can even be a #4 after rehab, maybe he’ll change his mind on retirement. Once accepts what the “new” Roy it may take the pressure off.
Roy Halladay is the Steven Montgomery of baseball.