Looks like we’ll have to wait a little while longer until the real exciting blockbuster trades are made. In the meantime, a pair of lower impact moves were completed involving starting pitchers Jordan Lyles and Jason Vargas. Unfortunately, the park factors suggest both are going to be hurt by their new home digs. Let’s get to the comparisons.
After the Andrew Cashner and Homer Bailey moves, I thought the floodgates would open for deals and prepared to write several trade write-ups. Things are starting to heat up with a big move on Sunday and already a pair of starters getting moved by Monday afternoon.
Marcus Stroman to the Mets
This was a shocker! Not that Stroman was traded, but rather where he was traded. The Mets weren’t expected to be buying anyone, but I guess they felt that Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson was too good of a price to pass up. Stroman does get out of the AL East, but the Mets aren’t exactly the defense that can maximize Stroman’s major groundball lean. There’s still a benefit of switching from the AL-to-NL, but overall this feels like a neutral move.
In our first big trade of the non-waiver trade deadline season, Marcus Stroman joins the New York Mets, at which point Mets fans know all too well that he’ll turn into a pumpkin and never be effective again until he’s traded away. In all seriousness the knee-jerk reaction is that this move is fantastic for his fantasy value, given a more pitcher friendly venue and a switch to the National League. Let’s dive into the park factors to get more clarity on the change in home parks.
We are now rapidly approaching the major league trade deadline of July 31. In our own fantasy baseball leagues, we often try to mimic real-life – and trading is no different. We set up an arbitrary date in the 2nd half of the baseball season, in which we agree to cease trading with our league mates for the remainder of the season.
Some leagues set their internal deadline a few days following the major league one. Some leagues set the deadline to be the All-Star game. Whatever your league’s trade stopping point may be, the idea is to prevent last minute unfairness or possible collusion. As a natural byproduct, having that set date often sparks some league excitement in the waning trading hours!
The title of this article is, The Mathematics of a Fair Fantasy Trade. Often, leagues will allow its individual team members (or commissioner) to vote upon and potentially veto a trade which they deem as “unfair.” These leagues will often state in their constitutions ideas resembling:
All trades should be “fair.” A trade does not necessarily need to be “good” for both sides.
The above verbiage is taken verbatim from the constitution of one of my home leagues. For a number of my other leagues, their bylaws also state something similar. League guidelines often emphasize the notion that fair trades aren’t necessarily good for both sides. They claim that a fair fantasy baseball trade does not necessarily have to be a good one.
I completely disagree with that premise. The truth is that they are one and the same. Any trade that is good for both sides is a fair one. Any trade that is fair, has the realistic potential to benefit both teams.
Trade season kicked off with a couple of smaller moves over the weekend as Boston and Oakland bought in on a pair of once-solid arms trying to recapture their past glory. While the deadline isn’t loaded with top-flight players, we could still see a blockbuster trade period by volume. Of course, that second wildcard keeps a lot of teams thinking they are alive when they really aren’t legitimate contenders… lookin’ at you, San Francisco.
Mark Feinsand did a piece at MLB.com highlighting a player per position who could be dealt later this month, a good look at the early market that I recommend you read. What I’d like to do is look into the aftermath of those potential trades and highlight some guys who could fall into jobs. If you’re light on FAAB like I am in some leagues, you may consider acting early – especially with those who are almost certainly on the move – and scoop some of these guys in the coming weeks instead of waiting until August 1st.
Dictionary.com defines the word commission as “the act of committing or entrusting a person, group, etc. with supervisory power or authority.” I’ve been playing and commissioning fantasy baseball for almost 25 years now and have on occasion abused that authority to influence change within my leagues. Always with the long-term good of the league in mind, I have encouraged owners to adopt a wide variety of incentive structures that have included elaborate prize payouts, keeper contract systems, supplemental minor league drafts, arbitration and inflation offsets, and a few other random gimmicks. Furthermore, as a regular member of an active, daily fantasy baseball community, I’ve seen countless other versions of these ideas and have had all the common debates about incentives vs. penalties, owner competitiveness vs. engagement, and all the nuances that make for good, healthy ownership and game play. In short, I’ve kind of seen it all.
I’m now ready to admit defeat. Despite my best efforts, there are no universals when it comes to motivating every type of owner to engage fully over the course of a long 162 game baseball schedule. This revelation should be obvious, and perhaps only fellow commissioners will sympathize with this drive to create the perfect league, but it has taken me some time to finally come to grips with this truth. To be clear, it’s not that some of these ideas haven’t worked (I have years of anecdotal evidence that they can and do), it’s just that they are usually designed to address the symptoms that plague poor leagues rather than the core issue.
In an effort to alleviate their outfield/first base/DH logjam and perhaps begin the dumping process, the Mariners traded Jay Bruce to the Phillies, marking his return to the East Coast where he spent parts or all of the previous three seasons. He’s expected to act as the strong side of a left field platoon, with Andrew McCutchen shifting to center field. Let’s check the park factors to determine how the park switch might affect Bruce’s offense.
Last season I kicked off April with some early trade reviews from the Ottoneu community, and today I’ll do the same, hoping to peek under the hood of some early player perceptions as transactions start to take shape across the fantasy baseball world.
As a quick reminder, Ottoneu is a keeper system by design that shifts the balance just short of traditional dynasty leagues, and offers a variety of scoring systems (including H2H).
