On June 29th, as the clock neared midnight ET, Jake Mailhot and I completed a trade in League 32 that saw us swap a couple of big names.

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The other day, I received a fascinating trade proposal in Ottoneu League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams: my $42 Bryce Harper for his $48 Corey Seager. If you’ve been following along with this series, I’ve covered my process of rebuilding this team, from the initial decision to rebuild, to the draft, to the breakouts that drove some early success. We’re two months into the season now and the ascent of The Wanderers has slowed a bit and now I’ve got to make a decision about this trade. I thought it would be an interesting exercise to run through my thought process as I consider whether or not to accept this trade, both as a case study for how to come to a decision on a difficult choice and as a way to check in on how my team is doing.

A straight swap of Harper and Seager is pretty interesting for a couple of reasons. First, upon first glimpse, these two players are even on value and production so the swap is simply addressing roster construction rather than a move born out of necessity. It’s also pretty uncommon to see two superstars like this traded straight up. So often, players like Harper are the centerpiece of a win-now move, with prospects or young MLB talent heading the other direction.

First, let’s do a little comparison of how Harper and Seager have performed thus far this season:

Due to injuries, they’ve both missed about the same amount of time this year and have the same number of games played so far. Harper has returned from his Tommy John surgery and has essentially picked up where he left off last year, though that isn’t up to the level of his MVP campaign in 2021. His power output is a little down which probably isn’t surprising considering the nature of his injury and his extremely quick recovery. After undergoing his own Tommy John surgery in late 2018 and exclusively hitting during the 2019 season, Shohei Ohtani’s power was significantly diminished until 2021. I’m assuming the same will hold true for Harper and we won’t see a return to his full, healthy self until next season.

Seager has his own injury concerns, though they clearly haven’t affected his ability to crush the ball. Last year was the first time he had played in a full, 162-game season since 2017. He’s already missed a month with a hamstring injury, though he’s been absolutely dominant when he’s been on the field. His hard hit and barrel rates are up to career highs and it finally seems like he’s settled in Texas after signing his mega contract last year and struggling in his first season as a Ranger.

Using four of the projections hosted on FanGraphs, we can get a rough glimpse of how the computers think these two players are going to perform over the rest of the season.

The projections think that Harper is going to have no trouble continuing to produce at his current pace. It’s certainly possible his power will return sooner rather than later, but that’s not necessarily something I want to bank on. For Seager, the projections are a little more bearish, with ZiPS being particularly pessimistic. I think they’re still weighing his down season last year a little too heavily and it certainly seems like he’s back to producing like he was in his final seasons in Los Angeles.

Without any other context, I think I’d pick Seager over Harper over the remainder of the season. But team and league context matter a great deal, especially in a format like Ottoneu. The Wanderers have fallen to ninth place in League 32, though they’re within 450 points of fourth place. The problem is that the teams in first through third place are an additional 250 points ahead of fourth which makes any dream of a Cinderella run a really long shot this year. Both Harper and Seager are keepable at their current salaries, though the former is likely a big target for arbitration during the offseason. Picking one over the other wouldn’t hamper me financially as I continue my rebuild into next season.

So then it comes down to roster construction. Ottoneu teams have to field a MI and five OF spots in addition to the traditional positions. As you might have guessed from the team name, I’ve already got Wander Franco holding down shortstop so adding Seager would really solidify MI for the future. Finding five consistent producers in the outfield is often a much harder struggle than filling out another infield spot. Here’s what my roster currently looks like at these to positions with each player’s FanGraphs Depth Charts projection listed:

Middle Infield is definitely the stronger position group right now with Muncy, Polanco, Steer, and Lowe all looking like solid contributors. Muncy will likely fill my 3B slot everyday so it’s really down to the latter three to fill two spots, 2B and MI, with Steer acting as my backup SS. My outfield group is a little weaker with just two or three solid options available to me depending on if you think Kelenic’s breakout is for real. There are a bunch of question marks for the remaining options; Hernández has been elite in the past but he’s really struggling in Seattle this year and injuries have derailed Haniger’s and Chisholm’s seasons.

Because a surprise competitive season isn’t looking likely this year, I’m less concerned with how these two position groups are shaping up this season. Looking towards the future, I’d guess I’d keep four players from each position group, though Muncy, Steer, and Chisholm are likely going to lose their MI eligibility next year. Franco is an easy keep as the centerpiece of my roster with Polanco and Tovar on the bubble depending on how they finish the season. That means I’m heading into next year with Franco as really the only guaranteed option in the infield. Happ, Gurriel, Kelenic, and Chisholm look keepable in the outfield which actually gives me a pretty decent foundation to build off of next year.

I let the other owner know that I was going to write up this trade decision so he’s privy to all these thoughts. I honestly didn’t know where I was going to land when I started writing this, but I think I’m leaning more towards Seager at this point. Does anyone have any other thoughts or things to consider that you think I missed?

The Trade Deadline Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Steve Gardner

MLB Trade Deadline

• Closers / Relievers
  • Braves – Raisel Iglesias / Kenley Jansen
  • Brewers – Devin Williams / Taylor Rogers
  • Phillies – David Robertson / Seranthony Dominguez
  • Orioles – Felix Bautista / Cionel Perez / Dillon Tate
  • Twins – Jorge Lopez
  • Angels – Jose Quijada / Ryan Tepera
• Starting Pitchers
  • Mariners – Luis Castillo
  • Athletics – JP Sears
    • Are traded pitcher prospects good short term fantasy investments in redraft leagues?
  • Yankees – Frankie Montas
    • Where should Montas be drafted amongst starting pitchers in 2023 drafts?
  • Cardinals – Jose Quintana & Jordan Montgomery
    • Dylan Carlson – Are we missing something on him?
  • Twins – Tyler Mahle

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R.I.P. to a true legend of the game:

The voice of our game.

MLB Network mourns the passing of Vin Scully. pic.twitter.com/BgJwsxqij7

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) August 3, 2022

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8/2/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

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Jeff and I will be covering the fantasy impact of the deadline deals over the next couple days!

• To SD: P Josh Hader
• To MIL: P Taylor Rogers, OF Esteury Ruiz, P Dinelson Lamet, P Robert Gasser

WOW!!! Who had Hader getting dealt?? Put your hand down, no you didn’t. Nobody did!! This stunner feels particularly crazy because Milwaukee sits with a 3-game lead in the Central right now, but when we dig in deeper, you that both lefty relievers are coming off horrendous Julys and while Hader is the much more dominant arm (42% to 28% K rate), they haven’t been that different on the whole this year.

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One of the only decent things to come out of the lockout is the compressed timeframe for teams to get their rosters ready for Opening Day which will create an NBA/NFL-esque free agent and trade frenzy in the next weeks. I will posting these regularly until the season starts.

Covered in this article: Cruz, Olson, Winker, Suárez, Williamson, and Dunn

Previous editions: March 14th Pt. 1 |

Nelson Cruz to WAS

Was his time with the Rays a BABIP-fueled blip (96 wRC+, .252 BABIP) or the start of legitimate decline? He also struck out in 27% of his 238 PA after being traded over. Maybe he hated the Trop, too, because that’s where he really struggled, posting just a .603 OPS in 101 PA. Even a Cruz who is more his 2021 line (122 wRC+) than the guy who put up a 164 in 735 PA from 2019-20 is totally fine. The top half of that Nationals lineup is coming together with Lane Thomas, César Hernández, Juan Soto, Cruz, and Josh Bell giving them a strong top five while Keibert Ruiz could give it a bit more length in the 6-spot. His bat plays everywhere, and Nationals Park is a bit of an unheralded offensive gem, giving righties a 103 Park Factor (5th in MLB) over the last three seasons. At age-41, it is worth planning for fewer plate appearances, but anywhere north of 450 should be enough to be an impact bat.

Bottom line: Premium slugger aging gracefully at age-41 and all of sudden this Washington lineup isn’t so bad, either.

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8/1/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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Jeff Zimmerman and I will be covering the fantasy relevant deals this week, highlighting the winners and losers and pointing out the actionable items for you in your leagues.

BOS gets: OF/DH… 1B? Kyle Schwarber

WAS gets: RHP Aldo Ramirez

Schwarber is still on the IL nursing a right hamstring strain he suffered in early July. The latest is that he been jogging a bit but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s due back soon. He is expected back before the end of the year, but this is definitely a playoff move for the Red Sox.

It is hard to assess things before Schwarber is ready to return, but I would believe this is bad news for Jarren Duran with Alex Verdugo moving to center and Schwarber in left. Duran has struggled mightily in 37 PA so far with a 29 wRC+ and 32% K rate. The time between now and Schwarber’s return will essentially be his audition to stick around. If he does somehow turn it around, I wonder if the Red Sox could see Schwarber as a first base option.

He apparently stood there once but doesn’t have any formal experience as far as I can tell. And it’s not just as simple as putting someone there and they will automatically get it, but Schwarber is an adept defender and I think he could take to 1B well. But again, that really only becomes an option if Duran turns it around. In Washington, this will keep Gerardo Parra in the outfield even once Schwarber is healthy but that isn’t particularly fantasy relevant.

Ramirez was 14th in Boston’s system and he’s a decent arm who is still young enough to develop. If he continues to improve his command, he can reach a backend starter’s future and he is having a productive season at A-ball, particularly with the command. He has a 6% BB rate and 0.3 HR/9 in 31 IP while also fanning 25% of his batters with a 2.03 ERA/1.13 WHIP.

It might not feel like a huge get for how good Schwarber was playing, but in addition to being hurt, power corner infielders just aren’t going to draw major returns, even in a seller’s market like this. Ramirez instantly becomes a top 10 prospect for the Nats, though that speaks more to their thin system than Ramirez’s upside. It’s a solid trade.

The Toronto Blue Jays added some much-needed starting pitching with the addition of José Berríos

The Twins have traded Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays for prospects Simeon Woods Richardson and Austin Martin.

Berríos was one of the hottest starting pitchers on the trade market. He’s been having a career season with a 3.48 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9. The ERA and WHIP are career bests because of a .261 BABIP (.289 career BABIP). I could not find anything new in his batted ball profile to support a lower BABIP, so I expect some upward regression. Read the rest of this entry »