Deadline Coverage: Berrios Loses Value in Canadian Exchange

The Toronto Blue Jays added some much-needed starting pitching with the addition of José Berríos

The Twins have traded Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays for prospects Simeon Woods Richardson and Austin Martin.

Berríos was one of the hottest starting pitchers on the trade market. He’s been having a career season with a 3.48 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9. The ERA and WHIP are career bests because of a .261 BABIP (.289 career BABIP). I could not find anything new in his batted ball profile to support a lower BABIP, so I expect some upward regression.

Besides the possible regression, he’s moving to the AL East. While fantasy managers aren’t likely to sit him against the other powerhouses, his rate stats will likely balloon since he no longer mainly faces the flailing AL Central. Besides possibly trading him away, there is not much fantasy managers can do about the downgrade but just suck it up and keep grinding.

One interesting factor is that Toronto doesn’t have an obvious void in their rotation. While Robbie Ray and Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 will remain in the rotation one of Steven Matz (4.58 ERA), Ross Stripling (4.84 ERA) or Alek Manoah (2.90 ERA) will need to go to the bullpen or be demoted. Another option would be to go with a six-man rotation. If I was a betting man, I’d go with Stripling back to the bullpen where he’s had more success.

As for Berrios’s (and fantasy irrelevant J.A. Happ’s replacement), the Twins rotation has needed help for a while. Bailey Ober should get a little more run in the rotation. I’m not sure who else gets added. Possibly the Twins don’t either.

Finally, it looks like Simeon Woods Richardson and Austin Martin won’t be major league ready, so they are non-factors in re-draft leagues.

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR once, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Paul Campbellmember
9 months ago

Plus Rogers Centre park factor is >10% worse