OK right out of the gate I gotta say that Lucas outshined me here! His fantastic charts were a great addition to his pitcher breakdowns. I do not have charts… but I do have thoughts!
Jack Flaherty to LAD: The team context improvement is a massive upgrade and easily dwarfs any sort of park/division difficulty losses.
Erick Fedde 페디 to STL: An even bigger team context improvement than Flaherty’s that also comes with a little park upgrade in terms of HR suppression (99 in CHW to 93 in STL), though it is worth noting that Guarantee Rate plays to a 99 composite Park Factor while Busch Stadium is at 101.
Lucas Erceg to KCR: Breakout RP star lands in KCR at just the right moment with James McArthur toting a 5.31 ERA (including 9 ER in 8 appearances this month) and recently acquired Hunter Harvey nursing a back injury. The former hitting prospect sits 99 mph, has a healthy 19% K-BB, and probably deserves better than his 3.58 ERA (3.08 SIERA). A worthy SVs spec this weekend.
Trevor Rogers to BAL: Team context alone lands Rogers here in the upgrade portion. He hasn’t been the 2021 stud we saw, but I’m certainly not out on him and excited to see what Baltimore can do with him. This might pay bigger dividends in 2025, but I like it. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his L9 which is nice but still comes with a meager 9% K-BB rate in 48 IP of work.
Neutral
Alex Cobb to CLE: Cobb’s just too much of an unknown to say this an upgrade as he’s yet to throw a major league pitch this year. Team improvement is mitigated by the park downgrade He is slated to make a rehab start on Saturday, August 3rd and he could join Cleveland after that. I’m OK speculating on Cobb in 15-teamers for the stash, but keep your expectations tempered with the oft-injured-but-talented righty.
Frankie Montas to MIL: Yes, it’s a team context upgrade for sure but will Montas actually be able to leverage it while eating up some innings? His 9% K-BB is half what it was during his 2019-22 run (3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 18% K-BB in 480 IP) and his 1.4 HR9 won’t get a total reprieve in Milwaukee as American Family Field still sits 8th in HR Park Factor (Cincy is 1st, so it is a noteworthy park boost).
Jake Bloss to TOR: There is more opportunity in Toronto as they aren’t contending, but he won’t yet be able to take advantage of it as he was sent to Triple-A after the trade and of course, it’s a worse team context. GM Ross Atkins has suggested this demotion might be temporary, though, giving Bloss a chance to breathe and process the trade before being thrust back into a big-league rotation. Stay tuned for his return as he could be a worthy streaming option in deeper formats. That said, I’m more excited about his 2025 and beyond outlook.
Downgrade
Paul Blackburn to NYM: Better team and better overall park, but it’s worse for HRs (83 OAK, 99 NYM) which is Blackburn’s biggest issue this year (1.4 HR9). Maybe it’s more neutral than downgrade because while I am already out for next week with a trip to COL on the docket, I love the OAK/MIA 2-step at home (yes, even w/the elevated HR outlook) that sets up for the following week. It’s still only a deep league play but not a bad downballot pitcher play this weekend as that Coors start should temper prices.
James Paxton to BOS: Worse team, worse ballpark, and still running just a 5% K-BB this year. On the other hand, he’s back with pitching coach Andrew Bailey and was moderately successful in Boston last year (17% K-BB, 4.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP). Could be streamable, but I don’t want his at KCR/v. HOU 2-step next week so I’ll pass on bidding this week in anything but maybe AL-Only where anyone breathing has some intrigue.
Closers No Longer Closing… At Least For Now
Essentially just a subset of the downgrade category
Carlos Estévez to PHI: He is the best positioned amongst this group because while he joins a deep bullpen, they do not currently have a locked in A-tier closer. Jeff Hoffman is having a brilliant season and could no doubt handle the role, but they like having flexibility to bring him in whenever they want so adding another stud in Estévez could push Hoffman to a more permanent fireman role with Estévez getting the bulk of the SVs. José Alvarado isn’t going anywhere and leads the team with 13 SVs, but I think Hoffman/Estévez are the plays for SVs. Even still, he was the full-time close in LAA so this is a loss.
Tanner Scott to SDP: Fantasy folks really wanted him to head to LAD and take over their shaky closer’s role, instead he joins arguably the strongest pen in baseball. He should still garner occasional SVs when a throng of lefties are due up in the 9th, but Robert Suarez is pretty locked in as the guy.
Yimi García to SEA: Stuck behind Andrés Muñoz, but having a truly brilliant season (2.45 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 30% K-BB in 33 IP) so should be the first man up should something open up. This one stings a lot less because he wasn’t the full-time guy with Toronto anyway so not many were banking on his limited SVs (5 so far this yr).
It’s difficult to predict how a trade will impact a pitchers fantasy value, but we’ll try to do it anyways. It mostly seems that relievers lose value because they tend to shift out of the high leverage roles that made them a trade target in the first place. Starters provide a little more support thanks to measurable park factors, team defenses and winning percentages. In this article, I’ve provided a comparison of those statistics from one team to another and attempted a best guess at whether the trade was an upgrade, a neutral move, or a downgrade.
Paul Sporer will cover the rest of the pitchers in a Part 2 coming soon
I am once again asking @mlb for a trade deadline docu-series type thing.
Put cameras in the front offices of all the teams in the hunt. A running clock counting down in the corner of the screen. It would be must see tv. pic.twitter.com/kuxMg3VU5Q
Here is my best estimate on which hitters gained or lost fantasy value because of trades. Over the next few days, I’ll note any changes at the end as news comes on how teams plan to utilize each player. Also, several teams are going to need to promote some players to fill their roster.
Note 1: This ranking is by how much a player’s value changed, not the best players. Randy Arozarena and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are the top two talents, but since both were already regulars hitting near the top of lineups, their fantasy value after the trade didn’t change much.
Note 2: All these trades and roster moves happen in the last few hours and days. I’m sure some batters will play more or less than I predict. My goal here is for a quick look.
Major Upgrade
Miguel Vargas: Goes from a short-side platoon role to a top-of-the-order bat.
Austin Hays: Goes from a short side-platoon bat to what seems a full-time gig with the Phillies. Check back after a week on the playing time situation to ensure he’s not in a platoon.
Jonny DeLuca: Three starts (one vs LHP) since the Arozarena trade.
Dillon Dingler: Detroit called up Dingler to catcher with the trade of Kelly. Batting .308/.379/.559 with 17 HR and 5 SB in AAA.
Alex Call and Harold Ramírez: Both from zero contributions to regulars. Keep an eye on Call. He might end up in a platoon.
Marco Luciano: Sounds like the Giants are going to give me full-time at-bats as note here (7/31 update):
The Giants recalled Luciano, who hit six home runs and has a .416 on-base percentage for Triple-A Sacramento in July while drawing as many walks as strikeouts. Zaidi and Melvin made it clear that Luciano will get everyday at-bats and most of those opportunities will come in Soler’s place as the DH.
Kyle Stowers: Batting third in his first game with the Marlins (7/31 update).
Upgrade
Joey Loperfido: Should get most of the DH at-bats in Toronto but might not hit enough to stay in the majors.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Better park and surrounding cast with the Yankees.
Amed Rosario: Rosario’s value will drop going to the Dodgers but he has a huge range of outcomes based on his usage. The team needs middle infielders and outfielders and he could fill in at any position. He’ll start as the team’s shortstop until Edman and/or Betts come off the IL.
Rays infield includingTaylor Walls, José Caballero, Curtis Mead, and Junior Caminero: After trading away Paredes, the third base job opened up. Knowing the Rays, it won’t be one player getting all the playing time but spread around.
Alejandro Kirk: With Jansen gone, he’ll get most of the catcher reps.
Marlins Outfielders: Nick Gordon and Cowser got the first starts. Dane Myers is an option when he comes off the IL (update 7/31)
Slight Upgrade
Heston Kjerstad: More playing time but still splitting time with the other outfielders.
Jorge Soler: Better ballpark. Maybe a better lineup.
Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan: With Edman gone, both should see more time at second base. I’m not sure they will play enough to be rosterable in any league except NL-only.
Neutral/Unknown
Josh Bell: Might be taking over for Walker (oblique) at first base.
Ty France: On on the Reds with no obvious roster spot.
Joey Wiemer While all played in the majors, there are no obvious roles for them right now. I could see Norby and Stowers move up as plans come out of Miami.
Kevin Kiermaier: A part-time player moving on to be a part-time player on another team.
Mark Canha: With Soler traded away, Canha will get the DH at-bats and might cycle them with the other outfielders.
Austin Slater: Weak-side platoon bat with a career 122 OPS against lefties and 84 OPS against righties. Could slide into Austin Hays’s previous role.
Dylan Carlson: A short-side platoon bat with the Cardinals and remains in the same role with the Rays.
Sight Downgrade
Danny Jansen: He seems to have moved from being the primary catcher to the backup (7/31 update)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Looks to be a super sub. When healthy with the Blue Jays, he was playing every game. He might not with the Pirates.
Jesse Winker: I don’t think Winker will get more plate appearances with the Mets than with the Nationals and he will almost certainly run less as the Mets have nearly half (76) as many SBs as the Nats (147).
Isaac Paredes: Park downgrades his pulled home runs.
Paul DeJong: In my first take, I might have been too harsh on DeJong calling him Royals’ luggage boy. He seems like he’ll be playing more than I expected (7/31 update).
Christopher Morel: I suspect he’ll sit more as the Rays take advantage of matchups.
Tommy Edman: The Cards seemed to love Edman and had no problems batting him at the top of the lineup. With the Dodgers, I’m not sure how much he’ll play with the Rosario add, a hot Gavin Lux, and Mookie Betts returning.
Alex Verdugo: He might sit against lefties (career 113 OPS vs RHP, 79 OPS vs LHP) with Chisholm playing in the outfield.
Johan Rojas: Will be splitting time in center field with Brandon Marsh. I might be ranking him too high.
Carson Kelly: Goes from full-time at-bats with Detroit to the backup job with Texas.
Eloy Jiménez: Huge team improvement but Orioles are loaded with hitters so I don’t think he’ll play much. Originally, I didn’t take into account how much of a playing time hit it will be for him (7/31 update).
Mitch Haniger: Fewer DH at-bats and Arozarena will steal outfield starts. Might belong in Down Hard.
Michael Siani and Tommy Pham: The pair will split time in the outfield, killing their values.
As expected, there have been a flurry of trades as we approach the trade deadline, though none have reached blockbuster status as I type this. Perhaps the most fascinating one involved the White Sox, Cardinals, and Dodgers, as each team sent players all over the map. Let’s focus on the two players the White Sox traded to the Cardinals, Erick Fedde 페디 and Tommy Pham, as they are probably the most fantasy relevant names at the moment. The new White Sox arrival Miguel Vargas and new Dodgers acquisition Tommy Edman also have the potential to contribute over the rest of the season.
Gosh, I love trade deadline time as it’s always fun to see if any players switch to new teams and home parks that might dramatically affect their results. Like a hitter departing T-Mobile Park, the Mariners home, for Coors Field to join the Rockies. Or vice versa. Of course, with only about two more months of games left to play, small sample size randomness is likely going to overshadow any effects a change in park might have. That said, it’s still worth reviewing the factors for team switchers, as it could affect rest of season projections.
Fantasy baseball trades are difficult to pull off. Everyone feels like the offer is too one-sided. You either have to be willing to give something up or, you have to be in a more realistic “buyer” versus “seller” type of situation. This is exactly where I find myself, believe it or not, as a buyer. After a few days of clicking, calling, and chat-boxing like Billy Beane, a counter-trade offer has come my way looking like a deal worth taking: Read the rest of this entry »
