Deadline Deals: Hader, Montas, and Mancini by Paul Sporer August 1, 2022 Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports Jeff and I will be covering the fantasy impact of the deadline deals over the next couple days! To SD: P Josh Hader To MIL: P Taylor Rogers, OF Esteury Ruiz, P Dinelson Lamet, P Robert Gasser WOW!!! Who had Hader getting dealt?? Put your hand down, no you didn’t. Nobody did!! This stunner feels particularly crazy because Milwaukee sits with a 3-game lead in the Central right now, but when we dig in deeper, you that both lefty relievers are coming off horrendous Julys and while Hader is the much more dominant arm (42% to 28% K rate), they haven’t been that different on the whole this year. Rogers is a rental while Hader still has a year of arbitration after making $11 million this year and the Brewers likely don’t want to be on the hook for a mid-teens million price tag on a closer, even someone as good as Hader. It’s just not the best use of money, even if you aren’t on a shoestring budget. Gasser and Ruiz were 14th and 25th respectively on SD’s prospect list coming into the year. Gasser is the 71st pick from the 2021 draft and having a great first full season in High-A with a 31% K, 7% BB%, 13% SwStr, and 1.26 WHIP in 90.3 IP (4.18 ERA, too, for those interested in such a thing). Ruiz made his MLB debut after dominating in Triple-A but hasn’t done much in his first 27 PA (53 wRC+). I haven’t seen word yet on whether or not the Brewers will keep him in the majors. Dinelson Lamet will probably head to Triple-A. SD impact: Hader will take over the closer’s role immediately… or at least, I imagine he will. As mentioned, he was also struggling so maybe they still let Luis García get a save here and there while Hader irons himself out. García was a hot pickup last night with Rogers taken out of the role temporarily, but that obviously doesn’t feel as strong now. I would still hang onto him in the short-term while things get settled as the Padres have a game on Monday night and a doubleheader on Tuesday. MIL impact: Devin Williams will take over the closer’s role and becomes a must-get in all formats. He isn’t that available (79% Y!, 38% ESPN, 91% OC*, 100% ME*) and will certainly go for a mint in SV leagues where he is on the wire. *OC = 12-tm Online Championship, ME=15-tm Main Event – both are NFBC contests — To NYY: P Frankie Montas and P Lou Trivino To OAK: P JP Sears, P Ken Waldichuk, P Luis Medina, and 2B Cooper Bowman The 2nd-best starter behind Luis Castillo is now off the board! He has recently returned from the IL and looked pretty solid in 8 IP across two starts. The velo was down almost 2 mph last time out, though, so there is some cloudiness to his status. The Yankees will have him through next year, too. These two teams are no stronger to trades like this and always in this fashion with Oakland getting the prospects. This looks like a strong haul for the A’s who are the beginning of a down cycle. These usually last about three seasons and all three pitchers could be part of their next quality squad with Sears likely joining the team right away. They were all in the Yankees prospect list this year with Medina at 3, Waldichuk at 15, and Sears at 25. Bowman was in the Notable Young Bat segment after getting drafted in the 4th round last year. NYY impact: Montas leaves the friendly confines of the Coliseum and he does have a stark home/road split this year (2.36 ERA/1.09 WHIP/28% K in 72.3 IP at home | 5.01 ERA/1.24 WHIP/21% K in 32.3 IP on the road), but I’m reluctant to put much stock in 32.3 IP and predict a collapse for him. Some ratio trade off could easily be offset by an influx of wins, too. Trivino’s core skills are still fine (29% K, 9% BB, 13% SwStr), but even if he figured out his HR issue (1.4) – which doesn’t feel super likely in New York – he’s buried for saves and no longer has fantasy relevance. OAK impact: Sears could join the rotation immediately. He was solid in 22 IP with the Yankees (2.05 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 12% K-BB in 2 starts and 5 relief appearances) and totally dominated Triple-A with a 1.67 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and 29% K-BB rate in 43 IP across 9 starts and 2 relief appearances. He hasn’t found his dominance in the majors just yet with an 8% SwStr rate, but he’s always had swing-and-miss stuff in the minors with nothing lower than an 11% SwStr at any of his 7 minor league stops. If the slider gets going, he could be a sneaky starter pickup down the stretch at a time when waiver wires seemed starved for viable arms. I’m speculating in 12s and deeper immediately while keeping a close eye in 10s, particularly if I’m hurting in pitching. If Waldichuk gets the call, he is someone to speculate on, too. He is having a fantastic season split across Double- and Triple-A with a 2.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 26% K-BB rate across 76.3 IP. — To HOU: Trey Mancini from BAL, Jayden Murray from TB To TB: Jose Siri from HOU To BAL: Seth Johnson from TB, Chayce McDermott from HOU It’s tough to see fan favorites move. Even when you know it makes sense on the field, it’s a bummer. Mancini has been a fan favorite for quite some time and one of their consistently strongest hitters since his great rookie season in 2017 (113 wRC+, 4 20+ HR seasons). Part of the question about trading him was a concern that he might not bring enough back to take the clubhouse/fan hit, but the O’s did very well, netting a pair of 23-year-old starters. HOU impact: I imagine both Mancini and Josh Bell appealed to HOU because they can play some corner outfield in addition to 1B. While Yuli Gurriel’s season line is down to just 97 wRC+ thanks to a meager .293 OBP, he has been on fire over the last month-plus, hitting .298/.344/.447 in 122 PA since June 23rd so I don’t think he loses all his time here. Mancini, Gurriel, and Yordan Alvarez will fill 1B/DH/LF in some way on most days. It hurts Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Mauricio Dubón as there is one less spot for them. Meyers has played 4 of the last 6 in center so Roster Resource has him penciled as the starter. Taylor Jones will likely be sent back down to make room for Mancini. The park move ends up being a colossal upgrade for Mancini and he could be a game-changing power hitter down the stretch and hit like 20 HRs with Houston (that’s not the projection, but he could put up a major outlier run!). TB impact: Siri slots into CF with the rash of OF injuries that have overtaken the Rays (Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot, and Harold Ramírez all on the IL). Brett Phillips just wasn’t cutting it with a 42 wRC+ in 208 PA and he was DFA’d after the trade. Siri has shown flashes in 196 PA across the last two seasons, though a 33% K rate and .247 BABIP this year have really torpedoed his numbers (55 wRC+ in 147 PA). The 26-year-old has dominated in Triple-A (.290/.344/.523, 25 HR, 31 SB in 587 PA since 2019) and his speed-power profile has some appeal if the Rays commit to playing him. Well, with the injuries, they simply might not have a choice for now. I’d pick him up in 15s for sure and then assess this week to see how the playing time shakes out for 12s and lower as you prepare for Sunday’s FAAB run. BAL impact: Terrin Vavra (#11 prospect) was just called up over the weekend after an excellent run at Triple-A, posting a 145 wRC+ with a .324/.435/.451 line, 2 HR, 5 SB, 17% K, and 14% BB in 208 PA. He is a 2B/OF and could see time at both positions. If you need some SBs with a potential AVG spike, he could be your guy, but I’m not looking beyond 15s just yet. At the NFBC, he comes as UT-only since he debuted at DH unfortunately which definitely cuts into his appeal. Yusniel Diaz – the prize of the Manny Machado deal at the time… it’s now Dean Kremer – was called up to take Mancini’s roster spot. A disastrous 2021 took him off the Orioles prospect list and I’m not sure the power-free 85 wRC+ this year is going to get the 25-year-old back on the list any time soon. Injuries have stifled his ascent, topping 100 games in a season just once (114 in 2017). He’s also 34-for-75 in SBs as a minor leaguer. I’ll still keep an eye on him in case he recaptures some of that buzz from his Dodger days.