Archive for Trades

We are one week (mostly!) through the baseball season. In Ottoneu, this specific period of time feels more gut-wrenching than in other fantasy sports formats. I have no facts to support this – maybe it’s the negative points players can score? – other than noting that when multiple -4 scores come in from Russell Martin, or you see Greinke put up a -30 line, it is easy to feel like the most desirable outcome is to lay at the bottom of a large body of water. Ottoneu can be a difficult game, and (especially) if you have any idea of the points thresholds it takes to win, it can feel even more daunting to see your squad trudging along. However, it is important to remember that the season is VERY long, and that every team will have several bad weeks. During this period of the season, it is easy to overreact and make a rash move to counteract a poor start. Everyone wants  to own Trevor Story when everything he hits is a home run. Meanwhile, a Michael Pineda owner might be a little more fearful about how this coming season will go after his -14pt start against Houston.

In the midst of this, you may start to see some trades in your leagues that could give you pause. Ottoneu has many variables which play into trades that are often ignored in standard fantasy leagues (salaries, loans, dynasty, etc.) so sometimes you can see a deal pass through your league that looks a little strange (even if not on the basis of talent being exchanged). Today I want to highlight some of these trades and also take a little time to echo patience if you are considering selling off – especially if you are in a brand new league, it’s far too early. Let’s look at some interesting trades from the past week! Read the rest of this entry »

This is a topic I probably should have brought up earlier in the draft season when more owners could use the concepts to select their keepers. I’ve decided there’s still a reason to talk about keeper value and inflation as it could inform your trade talks or how you think about the game in general.

A couple of my auction keeper leagues included hefty inflation this year. We’re talking prices over $10 above retail. As I’ve said in previous posts, the best way to handle the craze is to join the fray for a few big names then position yourself to be the king of dollar days. But let’s take a further step back. How should we prepare for rampant inflation before the draft even begins?

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In the real world of baseball, the Orioles recently agreed to terms with Yovani Gallardo on a $35 million contract. Then they ran their classic bait-and-switch physical, cried “shoulder,” and leveraged Gallardo down to a $22 million guarantee. This is not the first time the O’s have killed a player’s leverage. Usually they go on to sign with another team for much less money.

You’d be hard pressed to find any 30-year-old pitcher without some kind of radar blip in their shoulder or elbow. In his prime, Gallardo threw 93 mph. This was back when 93 mph rated among the hardest throwing starting pitchers. Now he throws 90. There’s a pretty decent chance that whatever’s wrong with his shoulder is already assimilated into his game. Furthermore, given the contracts signed by Ian Kennedy and Mike Leake, decline appeared to already be priced into the original $35 million figure.

Gallardo and his agent should have anticipated the Orioles. They should have laid groundwork to co-opt the false leverage gained by the Orioles with the physical. Before any figures are exchanged, it’s the agents job to say, “we know you’re going find something when you run your physical. Let me be clear, we aren’t renegotiating.”

That statement doesn’t mean what it says. Here’s the sub-text. If you, the Orioles, find something in my client’s physical, we’ll budge. A little. Like a very tiny bit. Maybe we’ll accept a small percentage of the contract as very easy to trigger incentives. It depends what it is too.

Put another way, do you think Scott Boras would have taken a $13MM reduction in guaranteed pay? Doubtful.

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You’ve just signed up to play Ottoneu – now what?

Ottoneu is growing, and while you’re going to see a lot of ink spilled here on RotoGraphs about this premier fantasy game, the learning curve for rookies can be a little steep.  Below are ten critical tips you should consider when embarking on your first Ottoneu fantasy baseball season.  What follows is based on the assumption that you’ve either joined an existing Ottoneu league or are creating a new league and are now preparing to draft in your first spring auction.

1) Join the Ottoneu Community

One of the best aspects of Ottoneu is the massive contingent of game players discussing all things baseball (and football) 24/7/365.  You can find the most active Ottoneu gamers on the official community site and on Slack. Complementing the already feature-rich platform, the Ottoneu community brings all owners together in one place to crowdsource player information, trade feedback, auction tips, keep/cut decisions, enhanced league communications, and a forum for recruiting new league owners.  Even if you don’t play Ottoneu (yet), the community is a goldmine of daily baseball dialogue, strategy, and advice, and it also the perfect place to dip your toe in if you have any interest in learning more about playing and joining Ottoneu.  When you do play Ottoneu, you’ll want to get acquainted with the community as soon as possible, as it is an excellent resource for new Ottoneu players.

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In the aftermath of Corey Dickerson being traded to the Tampa Bay Rays last week, we have seen numerous thoughts and predictions on his future fantasy value in Tampa. The prevalent belief being that he is no longer mixed league worthy. I actually saw someone in a Facebook discussion group post a tombstone with his player card on it. Photoshop aside, it is time to examine Dickerson’s fantasy value in Tampa. Read the rest of this entry »

Hard to believe, but it’s almost February.  Almost all the top free agents have signed.  It’s almost prospect season, and it’s almost time for pitchers and catchers to report.  All these things add up to a baseball season that is almost here.

Patience.

But patience is a luxury we don’t have these days in fantasy leagues like Ottoneu that have a keeper deadline (January 31st) fast approaching.  Auction formats make player valuation even more complex, and now that it’s crunch time, tough decisions need to be made.  How comfortable are you hanging onto that $20 Corey Dickerson while the risk of a possible trade out of COL remains a real possibility in February or March? Despite the power and the incoming fences, how does Giancarlo Stanton’s unavoidable injury history influence your decision to keep at $56? How much value, if any, has Zack Greinke really lost moving to Arizona? Is he a $35 starting pitcher? Everybody loves Kyle Schwarber as the next best thing (C and OF!), but where’s the line? $20? $25? $30?

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It’s cliche, but January is as good a time as ever to consider changing some behaviors (probably in response to learning from our mistakes).  Let’s dive into how this annual opportunity to manufacture inspiration can help us improve our fantasy trade skills by reviewing why we trade in the first place.

The foundation of trade is mutual gain.  It really is that simple.  Whether we’re discussing economics or fantasy sports, trade is beneficial because it enables each party to get more of what they want at a (perceived) cost lower than what they could produce it for themselves.

If trade is mutually beneficial, it stands to reason you should consider doing it more often.  In the context of your Ottoneu league (where trading is active and sophisticated), if you’re going to make more trades, you’re going to have to make more trade offers.  Some owners are reluctant to make trade offers, so let me encourage you to live a little more dangerously this year because, in addition to improving your roster, making trade offers will provide you with a lot of additional benefits.

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The ottoneu Slack community continues to be a great place to discuss strategy, get feedback, and more. One of the more active channels is Trade Review, where you can talk about ongoing trade discussions and get feedback from the crowd, and on that channel, there tend to be two camps in this off-season window – those who only care about player values and those who care about roster construction.

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Playing a little catch-up from the holidays, here are the fantasy implications from the latest impact moves and they aren’t all former Cincinnati Reds:

(Remember, you can follow all the move analysis here)

Johnny Cueto signs with SF

If a pitcher who struggled mightily like Jeff Samardzija gets a major boost by joining the Giants, then you can only imagine what it could do for Cueto. Overall, he had a fantastic season and has been  one of the best pitchers in baseball for the last five seasons. He sputtered some with KC, allowing a ton more hits while striking out two fewer batters per nine innings. He closed strong with a World Series complete game, but he’s likely thrilled to return to the Senior Circuit.

Homers usually get Cueto when he’s off. He had a 1.1 HR/9 with KC including outings of 4 and 3 HR. AT&T Park is the spot to stifle homers. That’s something Fangraphs, Statcorner, and ESPN can all agree upon when it comes to measuring park factors. This is a great move for the Giants to solidify their rotation with a big three in Madison Bumgarner, Cueto, and then Samardzija. All of a sudden, the burden on Jake Peavy and Matt Cain is much lower and Chris Heston is now the fill-in if one of them fails.

Impact: ++ for Cueto, – for Heston

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My headline would’ve been way better if Todd Frazier was traded somewhere south of Cincinnati. It’s pretty dope, though, right? RIGHT? He was the centerpiece to a three-team trade with the Dodgers, White Sox, and of course the Reds. The Dodgers and Reds each got a three-pack of prospects which we’ll get to shortly, but first let’s focus on Frazier with the White Sox.

Third base has long been an issue for the White Sox. In fact, when they first hired Robin Ventura it was to be the third baseman again, but after informed them that he was 44 years old and wouldn’t be any better than the dregs they were running out there already, he shifted into the manager’s role and they went with Orlando Hudson (50 wRC+ in 51 games) and Brent Morel (11 in 35) before getting the last bit of juice out of Kevin Youkilis for the second half of the season (110 in 80 and then he was done after just 28 games with NYY the following season).

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