Hot Stove Implications: Cueto, Chapman, Leake, and More…

Playing a little catch-up from the holidays, here are the fantasy implications from the latest impact moves and they aren’t all former Cincinnati Reds:

(Remember, you can follow all the move analysis here)

Johnny Cueto signs with SF

If a pitcher who struggled mightily like Jeff Samardzija gets a major boost by joining the Giants, then you can only imagine what it could do for Cueto. Overall, he had a fantastic season and has been  one of the best pitchers in baseball for the last five seasons. He sputtered some with KC, allowing a ton more hits while striking out two fewer batters per nine innings. He closed strong with a World Series complete game, but he’s likely thrilled to return to the Senior Circuit.

Homers usually get Cueto when he’s off. He had a 1.1 HR/9 with KC including outings of 4 and 3 HR. AT&T Park is the spot to stifle homers. That’s something Fangraphs, Statcorner, and ESPN can all agree upon when it comes to measuring park factors. This is a great move for the Giants to solidify their rotation with a big three in Madison Bumgarner, Cueto, and then Samardzija. All of a sudden, the burden on Jake Peavy and Matt Cain is much lower and Chris Heston is now the fill-in if one of them fails.

Impact: ++ for Cueto, – for Heston

Aroldis Chapman traded to NYY

It’s tough to see anyone benefit from a horrific incident like the domestic violence altercation that is currently under investigation involving Chapman, but it definitely diminished his trade value in baseball and the Yankees took advantage of that. They shipped a four-pack of prospects (Rookie Davis, Eric Jagielo, Caleb Cotham, and Tony Renda) to Cincinnati for a year (maybe two) of Chapman giving them a three-headed monster at the backend of their bullpen that makes even KC’s HDH combo from 2014 jealous.

Many believe one of the three – likely Miller – will be dealt, but I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion. The would-be trade to the Dodgers raised eyebrows as many couldn’t see Kenley Jansen ceding the closer’s role to Chapman, but it’s the same kind of problem with Miller and Betances. Betances has already shown that he’s fine handling the (arguably more important) bridge role that regularly covered the seventh and eighth innings. Meanwhile, Miller has just one of closing and is at least saying the right things about doing whatever the team needs from him.

The Yankees would have to entertain trading Miller if they got a Gilesian offer, but who is going to pony up? Houston was thirstiest for a closer and they’re now the ones with Giles. Maybe the other Texas team? Shawn Tolleson was great last year, but his one flaw is the one you just can’t have as a closer – home runs. He allowed 1.1 HR/9, third-most among closers (Glen Perkins 1.4, Brad Boxberger 1.3).

This cuts deep into an already-thin pool of NL closers. It’s actually a small upgrade for the ridiculously deep AL pool, though. Yeah, Miller is out which hurts because he’s elite, but Chapman is a tick or two better. Any suspension that Chapman faces doesn’t really hurt the AL pool, either, because then Miller or Betances just fills in. Speaking of a suspension, that is how the Yankees could get a second year out of this. If he’s suspended for 45 games, he won’t qualify for free agency so the Yankees would have him in 2017 as well.

Impact: = for Chapman, – for Miller, — for Betances, + for NYY SPs

Scott Kazmir signs with LAD

Sign a starting pitcher, take two! The Dodgers have had a weird offseason, losing out on the big arms of which everyone assumed they’d get at least one, if not two (including a re-sign of Greinke). Then they inked Hisashi Iwakuma to a three-year deal only to see him fail the physical. Kazmir is like when you have to get your car inspected (this could be Texas-specific, I don’t know how other states handle it) and your check engine just went back off, but you’re not sure if it’ll come back on and generate a failed inspection.

His career was over a few years ago or so it seemed. He was getting his clock cleaned in Independent ball back in his hometown of Houston in 2012 after a disastrous 2010 and just 1.7 IP in the majors in 2011. He resurfaced with Cleveland and even that looked sketchy for a while as he vacillated between good and impossibly bad. He had a 5.89 ERA through 11 starts before closing strong with a 3.06 ERA in his final 18 starts.

That yielded a two-year pact with Oakland where he carried over his Cleveland success for 50 starts (3.12 ERA) before getting traded to Houston last year. Stories like this are part of what makes baseball so great. A guy left for dead (career-wise, let’s not get morbid here) back in 2011 is now three contracts deep into his comeback.

Impact: + for Kazmir (first foray into the NL)

Daniel Murphy signs with WAS

Murphy moves within the division to join the Nationals. We knew he wasn’t going to return to the Mets once they acquired Neil Walker via trade. Meanwhile the Nats dealt Yunel Escobar and after a trade for Brandon Phillips fell through, they had a fit for Murphy. Washington gets a more stable bat in moving from Escobar to Murphy, while trading off a bit of the positional flexibility with Escobar capable of playing SS, 3B, and 2B while Murphy can play 2B, 1B, and 3B.

Impact: = for Murphy (joins a better lineup, but now has to face the NYM SPs)

Mike Leake signs with StL

Leake reminded us not to overrate park factors in a small sample as his 9-start run (he missed 20 days in August which made it shorter, too) with San Francisco didn’t exactly go as planned (4.07 ERA in 55.3 IP). Park factors definitely matter over a full year or five years as it were with this contract so leaving Cincy for St. Louis is an upgrade for the homer-prone righty.

As Jason Collette said on Wednesday’s podcast, Leake is kind of the right-handed Mark Buehrle. That’s not really a compliment on the fantasy landscape. Buehrle has been the definition of a workhorse, providing real, tangible value for big league clubs since 2001, but his fantasy impact has always been muted, often limited to leagues that reward innings (the one thing he always does well). Leake has a career 3.88 ERA and 1.27 WHIP while Buehrle is at 3.81 and 1.28, respectively.

Impact: + for Leake (but not enough to really move the needle on his fantasy value)

Bartolo Colon re-signs with NYM

Is Colon really that different from Leake? Leake gets an edge because Colon is 43 and could be done in a flash. Once you hit the late-30s, there isn’t necessarily going to be a decline phase that signifies the end and he’s now approaching his mid-40s. But on the field, the two aren’t all that different. Comparing the two since 2011 (Leake’s career started in ’10, but Colon missed that year) shows a small 41-IP edge for Leake, but otherwise it’s all Colon:

This probably says more against Leake than it does in favor of Colon, given that the perception between the two. Leake is the 78th SP off the board in early NFBC drafts while Colon is 139th! If you want to give Leake an edge based on age, that’s fine, but there’s no way they should be this far apart.

Impact: = for Colon

Mike Napoli signs with CLE

The sleep apnea surgery that Napoli had last offseason was supposed to rejuvenate him and allow him to get a good night’s sleep for the first time in eight years. Many – myself included – believed this could pay dividends on the field, too. If a guy can post a 126 OPS+ in 3731 PA while not even being able to rest comfortably at night, think about what he can do with better sleep!

After an 85 OPS+ in 378 PA with the lowly Red Sox, he was dealt back to Texas where he did his best work back in 2011. It was only 91 PA, but he looked a lot like that 2011 version: .295/.396/.513 with 5 HR in that time. I wasn’t expecting a .908 OPS for a full year, but I thought he’d jump back up into the .800s after 2014’s .789.

Now with Cleveland, he looks like the primary 1B (with Carlos Santana shifting to DH), but he might need a platoon partner if he can’t stifle his downward trend against righties. He has a career .804 OPS against them, but he’s in the midst of a four-year decline with the last two years being especially poor at .739 and .603, respectively. At least he still mashes lefties.

An impossibly bad .185 BABIP against them in 2012 saddled him with a .706 OPS (only his second season under an .828 OPS against southpaws), but he’s been on the rise every year since with a .954 mark last year that included a career-high 12 HR. Short-side platoon 1B aren’t a hot commodity in fantasy baseball, but I’m not certain he’s toast against righties.

If he is, we’ll get a 2015 repeat, but at pick 456 instead of last year’s 245 price tag.

Impact: = for Napoli, – for Jesus Aguilar

John Jaso signs with PIT

Jaso’s fantasy value is pretty niche, especially now that he has lost his catcher-eligibility. He’s a righty-killer who is best used in OBP leagues. He only played 70 games last year with the bulk of them coming at DH so he’s DH/UT only for draft season and while the Pirates plan to use him at 1B, he doesn’t really have the bat to carry that position so the eligibility won’t add much to his profile. Health has always been a concern, too, as he’s logged more than 361 PA just once (404 in 2010). He could be your last bat on an NL-only team, but his best value is against weaker righties in DFS so you can mitigate the ever-present injury risk.

Impact: + for Jaso, = for Josh Bell (this move won’t block the 23-year old prospect)

Rajai Davis signs with CLE

Davis has long made the most of his limited playing time, averaging 38 SB per season in just 390 PA from 2007-2014. He got 370 PA with the Tigers in 2015, but managed just 18 SB on a 69% success rate. It was his first season with fewer than 34 SB since 2008. Davis has a 144-point platoon split favoring lefties which is a big part of why he’s only once topped 500 PA. He had his second-best season against righties last year (.738 OPS), but I doubt he’s making a big skills change in his mid-30s. The fall off of speed league-wide gives Davis some value, even if he doesn’t return to his previous heights.

Impact: = for Davis