5/15/22
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!
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4/10/22
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!
Follow us on Twitter
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
The Streaming Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Michael Simione
Joes vs. Pros Congratulations
Strategy Section
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In last week’s “Who is Being Dropped & Why”, I noted the following on Jeremy Hellickson
At home, he faced the Mets and Cubs and they lit him up. I went back over the previous two weeks in the NFBC Main Event to see if owners targeted him for this two-step. In the Main Event, owners typically look two weeks ahead on the two-start pitchers to get a jump on the crowd.
Week: Add Count, Avg Bid
8: 7, $14
9: 5, $5
First, I found it a little funny that the owners hoped to get a jump on the bidding paid more. Second, almost all of the Hellickson shares added were then dropped (12 of 13).
A diverse pitching arsenal can help a starter successfully navigate a lineup several times since hitters have a harder time sitting on a single pitch. I went through the 2018 starters and found four pitcher groups who are the two ends of the spectrum. Either they rely on two pitches or have a diverse arsenal.
Many articles have been written about times through the order but the Holy Grail of research articles is the one MGL wrote a few years back. In it, he quantified how much having a third pitch helps. The research holds up even now. I took the 206 starters who threw at least 30 innings and found the percentage of pitches which were fastballs and next highest thrown. Normally, the average was around 75%. Then, I divided up the pitchers into 5% increments. Next, I subtracted the ERA from an average of their ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP, kwERA, SIERA) and here the average values. Read the rest of this entry »
I hope no owner is needing a free agent starter to use as it’s a rough group of lowly owned pitchers. When Ian Kennedy is the top choice, the pickings are slim.
Here are the pitchers owned in 20% or fewer FanTrax leagues.
The 33-year-old righty should not be in play, but he’s Sunday’s best option with the chance for a Win (vs Twins) and some strikeouts (8.3 K/9). His flyball nature has helped him post a HR/9 over 1.5 over the past 4 seasons so he’ll have a high ERA. Experienced owners should know what they’re getting with Kennedy.
I’ve never been able to trust Ramirez and I’m not sure I can against the Yankees. There are a couple signs for optimism. Most of his ERA damage happened in his first start when he posted a 10.24 ERA. After those two starts, he went on the DL (shoulder).
Since returning, his ERA has been 3.70 with ERA estimators near 4.00. He’s in the mold of a slightly below average starter with a 7.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. He’s facing CC, so he has a chance for a Win. There are worse choices.
Read the rest of this entry »
We’ll be writing each day up again like last week, but here’s a quick primer on the pitching slate next week for possibly available arms.
*all stats cited for the 2nd half unless otherwise noted
Lefty
Tyler Anderson v. MIA – It is in Coors, but MIA has the 4th-worst wOBA v. lefties (.304) in the second half thanks to just a .126 ISO.
Brent Suter v. CIN – CIN has the 26th wOBA v. lefties (.305).
The season numbers aren’t great but we’ve picked up some steam over the last few weeks and hopefully will finish strong. As always, if you have any suggestions or tips, please feel free to mention them in the comments section, and thank you for reading.
Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 23). Since this is the last column of the year, find me on twitter or on the #2xSP hashtag for end-of-season results:
45-41 record
4.73 ERA
7.8 K/9
2.4 K/BB
1.40 WHIP
45 quality starts
Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):
RHP Jake Junis – 20.1% ESPN – v. DET (99), v. ARI (94)
Junis gets a couple nice offensive matchups here, though the numbers are certainly deceiving in that the Diamondbacks will be tougher than the true-talent Tigers. But nevertheless, it’s two nice matchups for Junis before considering how good he’s been lately. Since more or less moving back into the rotation — save for one relief appearance — to begin August, he’s been terrific: 3.02 ERA, 41-6 K/BB ratio in 50.2 innings and an OPS against of .632. Four of the 17 earned runs he’s allowed in that time frame came in one relief appearance, which is worth noting as well. I’ve already grabbed Junis in my deep keeper for safe winter storage — you might want to do the same. Read the rest of this entry »
Ottoneu, like most fantasy leagues, uses a soft innings cap. This is pretty standard. You have an innings limit of 1,500 IP, and the day that you go over that innings limit, you are able to exceed it by as many innings as possible. How can we use this rule in our pursuit of a league championship?
Looking at Ottoneu specifically, though easily adjustable to any league format, you would want to get as close as possible to your innings limit, then on the last day, fill out your pitching lineup with players who are pitching that day. For example, start the day you plan to go over with 1,499 IP and throw 5 starters that day, with 5 RP in your lineup as well. Practically, this could get you another ~25-40 innings. Even if these innings fell below replacement level, they are still valuable as they would not be points you would otherwise accrue. Even if your pitchers were terrible across the board you would be looking at a lower bound of around 50 points, with an upper limit in the 250 point range. That’s a big gain on competitors who may not deploy the same tactic.
This is the main reason I recommend pacing your innings at 1,550 to 1,600 all year. It allows the flexibility to wait a week or two to pick your last day to blow up your pitching totals. Read the rest of this entry »
The season numbers aren’t great but we’ve picked up some steam over the last few weeks and hopefully will finish strong. As always, if you have any suggestions or tips, please feel free to mention them in the comments section, and thank you for reading.
Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 22)
41-40 record
4.74 ERA
7.8 K/9
2.5 K/BB
1.40 WHIP
44 quality starts
Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):
RHP Dinelson Lamet – 36.6% ESPN – v. ARI (95), v. COL (86)
Lamet dueled with Ervin Santana at Target Field on Wednesday night, and while his team came out on the short end of a walk-off loss, it was a giant step forward for the 25-year-old righty who has put together an intriguing season, to say the least. He’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last 10 starts, and that’s good for a 2.44 ERA, .553 OPS against and 66-28 K/BB ratio over 59 innings. However, this week he not only has matchups against two teams with so-so or worse offenses, but he’s also pitching at home, where he’s been markedly better (3.59 ERA) than on the road (4.73).