Tyler O’Neill homers on Opening Day. Mike Trout homers on his birthday. And new dads homer what feels like all the time.
So in honor of Father’s Day, I’ll comb through the Fangraphs Transaction Tracker to find a few newly minted pops, check in on how their season has been going, and offer a bit of not at all fatherly advice.
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At this stage of the season, the impact of luck, or lack thereof, starts to take form and become a meaningful predictor for the rest of the year.
But BABIP can be a noisy stat in isolation. I wanted to identify which hitters were getting lucky when putting balls in play, but also wanted to add a layer that allows us to assess that luck relative to fantasy value and overall offensive production.
The idea for this piece actually came from a curiosity around one specific hitter, which I will come to later, but it is a useful exercise to get a broader sense of the BABIP landscape as we enter the summer months.
So which hitters are potentially providing an unsustainable output, and which could be worth buying low on or holding onto?
I fought the law and the law won. And that law is the law of starting pitcher attrition. To make up for losing starters to season-ending injuries and the regression monster, turn to IL stashes.
This article won’t be for all of you, or at least the advice won’t be universally applicable. For those of you with limited IL room, or limited IL slots, this may not be as actionable today. But for most of these pitchers, you can likely hold off a few weeks before others in your league are ready to pull the trigger.
But if you do have room to hold onto a player with a little upside, you are unlikely to be outbid in FAAB at this point. That would be the biggest value add of bringing on these pitchers now — not having to outbid opposing managers once more news is out.
I will run through a handful of pitchers worth considering, sticking to blurbs unless a pitcher excites me to the point of digging in a bit deeper. I will focus on players who are rostered in less than half of CBS and Yahoo leagues (sorry Kris Bubic and Logan Henderson).
With all of the preparation that goes into draft season, it’s easy to throw that all out of the window when you come into June and a guy is hitting .180 and has fallen far outside of the top-ranked players in the majors.
This is especially true for managers in 10- and 12-team leagues. In these formats, the quality and depth of the waiver wire is never better than it is in April and into early May.
Contrast that with the struggles and small sample size bloated ERAs and miniscule counting stats, and it is easy to see why so many of us contemplate dropping players we considered ourselves excited to draft just a few weeks before the season.
In this article, I’ll look back at some of the hitters the industry liked heading into this season, noting their current roster rates and player rater values, and why you should consider buying back in while you still can. I’ll start with players who have already demonstrated some value of late and wrap up with blurbs on some names who could be next.
You must be able to see it, Mr. Manager. You must know it by now. You can’t win. It’s pointless to keep fighting. Why, Mr. Manager? Why? Why do you persist?
Because you choose to. Because sifting through recently discarded hitters is your jam. Because the occasionally interesting platoon bat may just be set up for an interesting occasion.
So, why do we persist? Because we all do. Why play fantasy baseball if not to savor the constant oneupsmanship. Oh yeah, pal o’ mine, you’re going to burn your FAAB on the hot young prospect? So what, I’ve got the entire Rockies lineup in Bing Bong Ballpark in Vegas this weekend.
Beat that.
In this article, I’ll use the Fangraphs Lab Baseball Sim tool to highlight some potential hitters to stream in this weekend’s juiciest matchups. And I’ll show you just how deep the rabbit hole goes and the extent of how you can use the Sim tool yourself.
As we move deeper into the season, teams are starting to ask themselves if it is time to buy or sell and, if so, what buying or selling looks like. How aggressively do I want to ship out potential keepers for a shot at a title? How far do I have to get in rebuilding my roster before the deadline so I am ready for 2027? In at attempt to dig into some of this, I have been looking at 2025 roster and results data. I have a long series of questions I want to look into – how much is too much to spend on top players? Stars and scrubs or balance? – and today I am going to start with this one:
If you are trying to build a strong 2027 team, is it best to do that via keepers you held through the off-season? Players you trade for during the off-season? Or the auction?
I think this is a pretty useful question to answer right now because it impacts sellers and buyers. Sellers are already thinking about 2027 directly; but buyers are trying to determine how willing they should be to break apart their core to win right now. So they are also wondering how they can/will build a 2027 roster if they are giving up keepers today.
Streaming pitchers is a much cleaner exercise than streaming hitters. And oftentimes, the expected production is relatively more guaranteed. But in an offensive environment where hitting seems to be increasingly hard to find on the wire, then playing hot hands, and even better, trying to predict hot hands, becomes worthwhile.
That’s what I’ll try and do in this article. At the team level, I’ll point you to the teams who are playing the most games this week, the teams playing in the friendliest hitter’s parks. Then, I’ll look more into platoon splits, playing time, and how hot they are heading into the week to try and identify a crop of hitters you should consider streaming. To limit the player pool to hitters who are likely to be available, I’ll only use hitters who are around 50% rostered or less in either Yahoo or CBS leagues.
This is my first attempt at this exercise. I’ll try and provide plenty of information to help you make decisions that apply to your league and team context, from position eligibility to rostership rates.
Please let me know in the comments if there’s other information that’d be helpful, format changes, or any other potential changes!
I know the headline is a little alarmist, but now that I have your attention, I’m here to let you know that not all of these struggles are cause for alarm.
In this article, I’ll take a look at a handful of starting pitchers who struggled to maintain their strong starts to the season, sorting by the biggest ERA increases from April to May amongst those with at least 25 innings pitched. Based on underlying numbers and vibes, I’ll bucket these starters into guys you should look to cut or trade and who to buy or hold.
And remember, try not to worry just because a guy shows up on this list! For the most part, to have a big gap in ERA between any two months, you need to have done pretty well during one of them.
So here we go. Read the rest of this entry »
“You don’t know how to play first base value assets, Scott?”
“That’s right.”
“It’s not that hard, Scott. Tell him, Wash.”
“It’s incredibly hard.”
“Hey, anything worth doing is. And we’re going to teach you.”
By now, 25 years hence, Moneyball concepts are likely old hat to your average RotoGraphs reader. With the suite of technical tools available to the modern fan, it can be easy to forget just how powerful those insights can still be. Read the rest of this entry »