Buying low and selling high. That’s the classic value proposition we all shoot for in trades. We’re trying to win after all!

It’s hard to win if you aren’t extracting value from your opponents, or at least adding value to your own team via the wire. 

And at this point in the year, with less than 40% of the fantasy baseball season remaining, it’s time to get serious. It’s time to really consider what holding onto struggling stars means for your playoff chances. It’s time for top seeds to load up on upside and injured players that the bubble teams can no longer afford to hold onto. It’s time to sell the young aces that got you here, for shelf stable veterans, or at least for pitchers we trust to pitch into September. 

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, I wrote about the importance of looking at a hitter’s performance on a per-game-started basis, particularly if you are in a daily lineups league. There are real risks to considering a hitter’s overall line without considering what they do when they start, and those risks can cut both ways. If you look at their rate stats and dream on the value of that .350 wOBA, you might miss that they lose plate appearances to pinch hitters, which might cost them 10% or more of their PA, even when they start.

If you look at their per-game stats, you might underrate a player’s power output or stolen base contribution because those numbers look bad overall, but they are actually on pace for 20/20 over 160 games. Today, we’ll account for those risks and look at a set of players whose overall and per-game performance might be hiding how good they have been on a per-game-started basis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Building on the bat speed piece from last week, I wanted to explore some deep-cut young finds based on swing length, blast contact rates, and all the rest. It turns out that if you swing fast, swing fast often, and make consistent contact, you are already highly valued, not just in fantasy but in baseball. Sorting these different metrics gives you a pretty similar list of names at the top of a chart.

For the first piece, I intentionally stuck to bat tracking metrics as much as possible, rather than outcomes, to compare the mechanical profiles of young hitters and to see whether we can use that on its own to predict future success. The problem is that the swing data on its own cannot tell the difference between an MVP candidate and a prospect who has been overmatched. Pete Crow-Armstrong sits in the same neighborhood as Marcelo Mayer, and no amount of bat speed or blast rate separates them.

Read the rest of this entry »

“I think you know my opinion on RP.”

• Trusted leaguemate and fellow fantasy writer Sam Lutz

Read the rest of this entry »

Bill Buckner and Steve Bartman know better than most that baseball is a haunted sport. Downright spooky even. Curses range from the Bambino to the Billy Goat to Seattle-area Etsy witches, baseball fans subscribe to and are victims of decades long vexing hexes.

And by baseball standards, the Home Run Derby Curse is akin to the curse of being on the cover of MLB the Show. FanGraphs writers have taken hacks at diminishing this curse over the years, but the popular consciousness still loves to tout it. Their theory is fairly straight forward, relying on the idea that derby participants change their swing to try and win the derby, and can’t find their game swing again in the second half, leading to a slump.

In this article, I’ll seek to answer two questions:

In recent years, has there been a fall off between halves for derby participants?

And is there a way to try and predict who will fall off to help us humble fantasy managers sell high?

Read the rest of this entry »

[DISCLAIMER – The latter half of the show comtains a few audio issues.]

The Mid-Season episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Fred Zinkie

Tout Wars Champions League

• Format
• Draft strategy
• In-season strategy
• What plays in this league and format?
• Trading

First Half Heroes and Zeroes

• Fantasy MVP
• Fantasy Cy Young
• Fantasy Busts

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

Strategy Section

• Second Half Strategy
  • How to determine if first half risers will continue to soar, and if first half fallers will continue to drop?
  • Are there any roto categories you should protect more than others?
  • Is it too early to punt categories at this point in the season at the all-star break?
  • Is it better to pick up a closer in waiting now, or trade for one in order to acquire saves?
  • Other second half strategies

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

Injury Update

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

In fantasy baseball, it’s sometimes safest to avoid platoon hitters. That’s the conventional wisdom, anyways. And in many cases, that’s the right advice. 

During drafts, hitters tagged with platoon risk, like Jarren Duran and Oneil Cruz, are often best avoided, as their upside is severely capped. In shallower leagues, when chasing upside and  racking up counting stats is particularly important, they should be especially eschewed. 

But there are formats and circumstances when platoon bats are worthwhile.

Read the rest of this entry »

Writing about red hot chili players can be fun. When an otherwise mediocre Curtis Mead starts slamming the ball, that is objectively entertaining. Especially for the fantasy manager, players who are far exceeding their draft price or FAAB cost just give us a bit of extra enjoyment when they perform well. 

Junior Caminero is certainly red hot. And considering the 45 home runs he hit last year, in his first full season, which he finished as a 22-year-old, this really shouldn’t be a surprise.

Sure, the fact that he’s hit bombs in six consecutive games, and that the stretch in question started with a three-homer game, is wildly impressive. But it’s easy to forget there were some who doubted the phenom third baseman. 

Read the rest of this entry »

With three full months in the books, it’s time for some of us to move from active participation into reminiscing, wishcasting, and dreaming. 

Opening back up the draft board. Peeking back, ever so reluctantly, at your preseason rankings. The notes you left yourself to take a flyer on a handful of spring training stud pitchers, from Kyle Harrison to Johan Oviedo. The highlighter on your desk reminds you of when you used it to circle Kyle Tucker as a late first-round bargain as a bat in the middle of the Dodgers order. 

We’re coming up on July, and for some of us, if not the majority of us, the World Cup is offering a pleasurable respite from what has been a miserable start to the fantasy baseball season. 

That is to say, we’re getting the likeliest outcome for what we signed up for. The 50th percentile outcome. We weren’t going to win! But the point is to try. Chasing that little smidgeon of hope like it’s the golden snitch. 

In this article, I’ll redraft the first round for the rest of the season. To get there, I’ll meander back through the projected first rounders from the preseason, wind down into the current top performers according to the Fangraphs Player Rater, and finish with how I’d redraft the first round today, for the rest of this season, with all of the benefits of hindsight, a little foresight, and a gentle drop of dreaming on unrealized upside. 

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »