Redrafting the First Round

With three full months in the books, it’s time for some of us to move from active participation into reminiscing, wishcasting, and dreaming. 

Opening back up the draft board. Peeking back, ever so reluctantly, at your preseason rankings. The notes you left yourself to take a flyer on a handful of spring training stud pitchers, from Kyle Harrison to Johan Oviedo. The highlighter on your desk reminds you of when you used it to circle Kyle Tucker as a late first-round bargain as a bat in the middle of the Dodgers order. 

We’re coming up on July, and for some of us, if not the majority of us, the World Cup is offering a pleasurable respite from what has been a miserable start to the fantasy baseball season. 

That is to say, we’re getting the likeliest outcome for what we signed up for. The 50th percentile outcome. We weren’t going to win! But the point is to try. Chasing that little smidgeon of hope like it’s the golden snitch. 

In this article, I’ll redraft the first round for the rest of the season. To get there, I’ll meander back through the projected first rounders from the preseason, wind down into the current top performers according to the Fangraphs Player Rater, and finish with how I’d redraft the first round today, for the rest of this season, with all of the benefits of hindsight, a little foresight, and a gentle drop of dreaming on unrealized upside. 

We’ll start with the expectations heading into the season. 

All of these familiar names look, well, familiar. 

Now for the downright heartbreaking. The current top players this season according to the Player Rater. 

Where do we go from here?

There’s no point in some grand reveal for this exercise, so we’ll start with the consensus number one. Who, for all of the hemming and hawing about slow starts and underperformance at the plate, is still the best, most bankable investment in fantasy. And then we’ll work our way down. 

1. Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Los Angeles Dodgers, ADP 1.3, Player Rater $27.2/$26.8

You probably noticed his name twice on this season’s Top 20 Player Rater table above. Yep, as a pitcher and a hitter, Shohei is giving lucky managers an incredible return, really regardless of the league format you selected him in. 

If there are knocks with Ohtani the hitter, it’s that he isn’t stealing anymore, with just six bags through 80 games at the dish. So maybe, if you’re in a league format that allows it, just play him as a pitcher most weeks? I guess? 

The flexibility here is unmatched, and after his first few seasons as a Dodger were purely about his skill with the bat, he’s returned to true two-way player status for the first time with the Boys in Blue and is a top-20 player individually in each aspect of the game. The power this season is down relative to his last two 50-homer campaigns, and his blast swing rate, max EV, xSLG, and most hitting metrics are not showing any signs that his especially prodigious power is lurking under the surface. All of those values are as low as they’ve been since 2022, his last full season as a starting pitcher. 

So if you’re looking for a final line, look to Ohtani’s 2022 season, where he finished with 34 homers, 11 steals, and just under 100 runs and RBI with a .273 AVG in 157 games for the Angels. He finished as a $25.9 hitter that season, 21st in the majors. He was worth $26.9 as a pitcher.

2. Kyle Schwarber, OF, Philadelphia Phillies, ADP 24.7, Player Rater $28.4

For the rest of these, we have to speed things up. And sometimes to speed up, you have to slow down. Schwarber isn’t a power-speed threat, though he did steal 10 bags last season. 

What he is, is consistent. Building on last season, the 33-year-old is up to 30 home runs with 54 runs and RBI apiece. He’s up to a .591 SLG. He has a barrel rate over 20%, a hard hit rate over 50%, and he unleashes his fast swing more than 75% of the time. 

Any potential fears of aging haven’t come to fruition yet. And while in 2027 redraft leagues he shouldn’t go in the top three picks, his reliability is certainly worth something, especially in deeper leagues, where a volatile first round pick can spell a death sentence. 

I plan to lead the campaign for First Round Schwarbo next season.

3. Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics, ADP 19.9, Player Rater $33.4

The bats who don’t steal bags are just mashers. They mash so much that they can still win you Roto leagues. And in head to head leagues, if it was even possible to rank these guys any higher, I would. 

For Kurtz, the case is pretty clear. He’s followed up his breakout debut with an encore that is worthy of some serious props. I’d put it right up there with Empire Strikes Back in terms of best sequels. And he hasn’t even had a full summer in Sacramento yet. 

Big Amish started the season off cold. Or at least, without much power, as pointed out back in May by Ben Clemens. Through his first 15 games, Kurtz had one homer and was hitting .192 with a 38.8% strikeout rate. But he was also walking 22.4% of the time. In 309 plate appearances since then, the first baseman has 18 homers with a .297/.434/.574 slash.

If fantasy baseball is about fun, then Kurtz is the crème de la crème. And last summer at home, with the weather over 80 degrees, Kurtz hit .350 with 9 homers and a 220 wRC+ in 98 plate appearances. Let’s hope for another hot summer.

4. Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays, ADP 16.5, Player Rater $25.4

Another bat with no speed. Who is ranked 28th on the Player Rater so far this season. Why the top tier ranking? Position scarcity and security. 

Third base hasn’t been the barren wasteland I expected prior to this season. Miguel Vargas, the current leader at the position, was drafted outside of the top 300. And the rest of the position’s top ten was primarily drafted well outside the top 100, with rookies Sal Stewart, Kevin McGonigle, and Kazuma Okamoto all performing well, and young breakouts Brooks Lee and Casey Schmitt representing the undrafted and scrap heap. 

Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jose Ramirez are the only other third basemen in the top 10 so far who were drafted in the top 100 this year, and both were top-20 players in drafts.

So, the top heavy position may be less so heading into drafts next season. But for the rest of this year, I don’t really trust any of the aforementioned breakouts to keep it up at this level. And so compared to your opponents, Caminero will present a weekly advantage. And he’s heating up. In June, the 22-year-old is hitting .323 with 9 homers.

And while we often say prospect growth isn’t linear, Caminero’s approach at the plate has continued to improve as his career has gone on, and the results haven’t been far behind. 

At this rate, he’ll need to supplant JoRam in the first round next season. That may just be my second campaign.

5. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals, 3.1, Player Rater $26.3

I promised to go quicker after Shohei, and instead I gave you some plodding sluggers. Bobby can help us get back up to speed. Ranked 26th on the Player Rater thus far, the star shortstop has 10 homers and 28 steals while hitting .288. 

After putting up only 23 homers last year, those of you who thought the power would return back towards 30 with the shorter fences in Kansas City haven’t been rewarded yet. And it may just be that Witt is more Trea Turner than Alex Rodriguez. I think that’s okay. 

Even without the power, he’s walking more and striking out less. He could reach 40 steals for the first time since 2023. And he may even have been a bit unlucky so far. Witt’s xAVG, xSLG, and xwWOBA are all above his actual numbers, with the 58 point gap between his .456 SLG and .514 xSLG representing a clear sign that a few more doubles and homers could be on the ledger in the second half for Witt.

6. Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks, 14.1, Player Rater $22.4

Ranked 41st on the Player Rater thus far, Carroll saw his stock fall a bit in drafts due to a Spring Training hamate bone injury. But unlike fellow bone breaker Francisco Lindor, Carroll recovered quickly and has posted up like nothing happened. 

In fact, he’s made some changes to his stance and has had spells of dominating lefties. He’s just a plain fun player. A team with Carroll and Kurtz, which is more than possible this season, has got to be one of the most fun starts to a team you could have had. He’s up to 13 homers, 9 steals, and a .278 AVG. The steals should come at some point this summer and should boost Carroll’s final Player Rater value into the top 10.

7. Yordan Alvarez, OF, Houston Astros, ADP 33.4, Player Rater $35.3

The thing with Yordan coming into this season was injury. The buy low case, if you can call a player with an ADP in the thirties a buy low, was that he’s still only 29 years old and that last season’s injuries, at least in part, were a bit fluky. He also has never needed a full season’s worth of games to put up a full season worth of fantasy production. 

And this version of Yordan seems to want revenge. He has his second best barrel rate of his career, his highest launch angle, his highest xBA, and his highest xSLG. That .707 xSLG is almost 100 points above his actual .613 SLG. He’s really putting it all together this season, and, as Dan Szymborski pointed out earlier in June, Yordan is a real Triple Crown threat.

8. James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals, ADP 37.8, Player Rater $34

The rest of the list could really go in a few different ways. For every James Wood, there’s a PCA, to give one example. Or a Juan Soto. Really there are a lot of bats in this projection range for the rest of the season, with $20+ of value. But none outside of Soto have the power potential of James Wood. And somehow, the Nationals have better vibes than the Mets right now. And Soto has been battling nagging injuries all season.

Meanwhile, Wood has put his dismal second half in the rear view mirror. The 23-year-old outfielder has racked up 21 homers with 13 steals and a .258 average. A power and speed threat, who is the only player on this list outside of Shohei Ohtani who could threaten a 40-20 season. 

And for Wood, he’s hitting the ball in the air more this season than he did during any stretch last season, signalling a true approach change. He should be locked in as a first rounder, as long as he can keep his strikeout rate right around the Kurtzian 30%.

9. Juan Soto, OF, New York Mets, ADP 4.7, Player Rater $20.8

Soto has been one of the most reliable fantasy contributors since debuting as a teenager in 2018. In his second season with the Mets, injuries have limited him to just 65 games and less than 40 runs and RBI, respectively. 

But the 27-year-old is walking more than he strikes out. Because of course. And he’s got 17 homers with a .300 average. While he has eclipsed 30 homers in three consecutive seasons, Soto has not hit .300 or better since 2021. It’s impossible to bet against him.

1o. Jacob Misiorowski, SP, Milwaukee Brewers, ADP 114.1, Player Rater $42

And now, for a trio of historic arms. Perhaps none have been as well-documented as Jacob Misiorowski’s. The Mizard of Awes has been the top player in fantasy thus far according to the Player Rater, and is rewarding upside-happy drafters with an incredible sophomore season thus far.

A dubious All Star last season, the Mis has 11 quality starts in 16 starts, including a complete game shutout. That is worth emphasizing given the Brewers’ coddling of their young ace just last year, when he averaged 4.4 innings per start. This season, Misiorowski is averaging 6.19 innings per start. 

Some of my favorite analysis of Misiorowski this season has come from Sam Miller with his Pebble Hunting Substack, where he broke down how the Brewers’ ace basically doesn’t need to do anything other than throw his fastball. And he doesn’t even need to throw it this hard. But he has been throwing it 100.3 mph on average, while mixing in a cutter, slider, curveball, and occasional changeup. This reminds me of peak DeGrom, with a Gen Z twist. 

His health may not last forever, but I’m willing to bet on it lasting for the rest of this season.

11. Cam Schlittler, SP, New York Yankees, ADP 116.6, Player Rater $32.6

The three-headed fastball monster, as broken down by Jack Martin for Rotographs, has been well-covered as one of the biggest breakouts in baseball this season. The most impressive thing thus far about the 25-year-old ace has been his command. 

Schlittler is throwing plenty of early strikes, with a 64.5% first pitch strike rate, building off of his 62.5% mark from last season. The sophomore starter is getting more chase out of the zone, more swing and miss in the zone, and has a 1.62 ERA with a 10.62 K/9. 

He set a new career-high in strikeouts against the Reds earlier this month. 

12. Cristopher Sánchez, POS, TEAM, ADP 24.8, Player Rater $26.9

Going from historic young flamethrowers to crafty sinkerballers is what makes baseball so incredibly fun to watch. Sánchez has long been one of my favorite players (and was the subject of my first article at Fangraphs prior to the 2025 season). 

Chasetopher’s signature sinker is running a negative pitch value to start this season, after running a 19.9 pitch value in 2025, but the changeup and slider are making up for it, helping the 29-year-old to a 37.6% chase rate, the best of his career, and a 31.4% CSW, tied for the career-high he set last season, despite throwing less than 50% of pitches in the zone. 

Living on the outside edge to righties and dialing it up inside to lefties, Sanchase is continuing his run to acehood and the record books. His 50.2 innings of scoreless ball set the all-time record for lefties.

13. Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves, ADP 48, Player Rater $26.7

Now in his 11th season in the majors, Olson continues to rack up the counting stats. With 20 homers and more than 50 runs and RBI each, he is perhaps the standard bearer at first base now as many of the old guard age. 

The 32-year-old has been swinging much harder than he had been over the last two seasons and is seeing the results, as his SLG has eclipsed .500 for the first time since 2023. And he plays every day.

14. Bryce Harper, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies, ADP 47.9, Player Rater $27.4

Olson has a clear health advantage over Harper over the last few years. But Harper still has some of that swagger that makes him fun to own. 

And he’s been raking, with 20 homers and more than 50 runs and RBI apiece. He’s also striking out less. If he can keep his K% below 20% for the full season, that would be Harper’s first time doing so since 2016. The 33-year-old still has it.

15. Ben Rice, C/1B, New York Yankees, ADP 53.2, Player Rater $36.1

A favorite among drafters this offseason, Rice has stepped up, even in the absence of Aaron Judge, and delivered the second most valuable season according to the Player Rater. 

As a catcher-eligible player, Rice has completely exploded at the plate, rewarding managers with 22 homers and a .272/.362/.566 slash, and more than 50 runs and RBI, respectively. 

Young Ben Arroz has continued to do all the things that made drafters swoon this offseason, hitting the ball hard more than 40% of the time, pulling it nearly 50% of the time, and keeping it in the air nearly 60% of the time. He’s a Savant fan’s dream. 

Perhaps the only wart is a declining walk rate and wOBA. In June, Rice hit just .202. Summer in the City should do him well, but perhaps the league is adjusting without Judge sitting behind him. 

Honorable mentions: Tarik Skubal, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Pete Alonso, Jordan Walker