Archive for Stock Watch

I had some doubts about this list’s usefulness a couple of weeks back and yesterday I tried to find ways to improve it. I came to the conclusion that players in the 10% to 25% dropped range were the most interesting. This works out to players dropped in four to nine leagues. Before, I was just looking at those in 10 or more leagues. I was way off target.

After looking over the players, I’m going to squeeze the range a little more from those dropped in six to nine leagues which works out to 34 players this week. I’d like to focus on 20 or so players each week but know that there was a post-deadline frenzy pushing the total up.
Read the rest of this entry »

With so many trades going down, I’m just going to go through a few and what it means to their rest of season fantasy value

Trade 1

• Astros get Zack Greinke
• Diamondbacks get Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer, and Joshua Rojas

Zack Greinke: The Astros grabbing Greinke made all kinds of waves in the real baseball world but in the fantasy game, Greinke gets a small value boost. The deal is that he’s already a start-every-game player and he locks himself even more as one. His owners don’t have to do anything but pat themselves on the back for drafting him in the spring.

Josh Rojas: Of the players coming to the Diamondbacks, Rojas is the only one with any 2019 fantasy impact and it’s small. Alex Chamberlain has a soft spot for Rojas since he’s made the Peripheral Prospects twice. While not touted at all, he’s a nice power (15 MILB HR), speed (28 SB) threat with a good batting eye (12% BB%, 14% K%). He’ll need to be called up first but if he does, owners should take notice, and monitor his playing time.

Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer: No 2019 value.

Trade 2

• Phillies get Corey Dickerson
• Pirates get a PTBNL and cash

Corey Dickerson: This trade would normally be made at the second trade deadline. The Phillies would add some outfield depth as they near the playoffs. So now, they are adding Dickerson (.931 OPS) to take Adam Haseley’s (.811 OPS) spot in left field until Jay Bruce (.825 OPS) returns from the IL.

The problem is that these three (and Bryce Harper) all bat left-handed. No obvious platoons exist. It might take a week or two to see if the trade creates anything actionable. Owners need to be watching this lineup closely to see how the playing time gets allocated.

Trade 3

• Brewers get Ray Black and Drew Pomeranz
• Giants get Mauricio Dubon

Ray Black: The 29-year-old Black just throws smoke with his fastball averaging 99 mph this year. The problem with his fastball is that he doesn’t exactly know where it’s going (in the minors, his BB/9 top 9.0 several times) and when hitters do square it up, it flies for homers. In two partial major league seasons, the fastball has a 15% SwStr% and 22% GB%. Besides the fastball, he also features a slider with an 18% SwStr% and 57 GB%.

Black has had some issues staying healthy which have limited his major league chances. He’s not going to immediately slot into the closer’s role but I’d not be surprised if he does at some this season with Josh Hader going back to the fireman’s role.

Drew Pomeranz: The Giants were forced to remove Pomeranz from the rotation even though he was dominating hitters with a 10.7 K/9. The strikeouts were his only positive trait with a 4.3 BB/9 and 2.0 HR/9 helping lead to a 5.86 ERA. Most owners are just going to dismiss him but I’m intrigued to see if the Brewers tap into his potential.

One obvious change is to get rid of a pitch or two. His pathetic sinker is the obvious drop. While his change has been better this season (10% SwStr%), it has been historically bad (6% SwStr%). He could go four-seam (11% SwStr%), curve (10% SwStr%), and cutter (12% SwStr%) and be a serviceable streaming option. The Brewers added Wade Miley at the deadline last year, got him refocused, and now he’s one of the biggest surprised of 2019

Mauricio Dubon: Shelly Verougstraete covered Dubon in detail in a separate article. All I will say is don’t sleep on him one bit. I’ve been hoping he could get some major league playing time since he was with Boston. A five-tool player which will be mixed-league worthy if he could just get on the field.

Trade 4

• Astros get Aaron Sanchez, Joe Biagini, Cal Stevenson
• Blue Jays get Derek Fisher

Aaron Sanchez: Like Pomeranz, Sanchez has struggled to keep a reasonable ERA (6.07) with all the walks (4.7 BB/9) and homers (1.2 HR/9). By just logging onto his player page, I can see the first adjustment the Astros will implement, drop his s(t)inker. It’s only getting a useless 47% GB% and 5% SwStr%.

On the other hand, his four-seamer has an 8% SwStr% and a flyball inducing 35% GB%. After the Astros got rid of Gerrit Cole’s sinker, Sanchez’s sinker will some be history. Besides the sinker, his good curveball (15% SwStr%) and OK change (10% SwStr%) provide a swing-and-miss alternative to finish off batters.

It seems like Jose Urquidy is the odd man out of the Astros rotation with the additions Zack Greinke and Sanchez. If Sanchez can’t adjust and continues to struggle, don’t be surprised if Urquidy gets moved back into the rotation.

Derek Fisher: I don’t understand this pickup at all for the Jays. In 312 major plate appearances, he’s hit 10 HR, .201/.282/.367, 35% K% with 9 steals. While the being a power-speed threat is nice, he’s not much of a hitting threat. A sub-.300 OBP isn’t going to cut it in the majors. He’s Quad-A bat who may get on a hot streak once or twice during his career and become fantasy relevant.

Joe Biagini: A nice bullpen arm but has some fantasy value before the trades as the backup to Ken Giles. Now he has no value.

Cal Stevenson: Again, Shelly Verougstraete wrote him up.

The Rays and Brewers have swapped players with the Rays getting first baseman Jesus Aguilar and the Brewers adding reliever Jake Faria. Here’s my take on who gains the most value from now to end-of-season in redraft leagues.

Travis Shaw/Eric Thames: Not sure what is going on here. The Brewers are left with two left-handed bats for the first base job. I think both become two-thirds time plays with both splitting time at first and Thames playing in the outfield especially with Ryan Braun needing rest Lorenzo Cain getting banged up. Shaw could play around the infield once a week as he did before his demotion.

Read the rest of this entry »

What a great trade (and fight) last night. This trade has so many moving parts that I’m going to focus on those players seeing their in-season fantasy value changing enough for owners to act. I’m not going to touch keeper/dynasty values as league rules will determine much of the player’s valuation. I’ll try to get past the main characters and find those players who need to be picked up or dropped.

While I’m supposed to provide instant analysis on this blockbuster trade, the true fantasy value gainers and decliners aren’t going to be 100% known for a few days. Owners will keep sticking Trevor Bauer and Yasiel Puig in their lineup. While the park factors and league context will change their value a bit, it’s non-actionable. They aren’t going to be dropped or added so the trade doesn’t affect their value.

The exact gain rankings aren’t known yet as who replaces Puig and who Bauer pushes out of the Reds rotation. Owners in weekly FAAB leagues will have time to make a decision and see who the MLB teams use for replacements. In the wild, wild west of quick-click leagues, hopefully, I can provide the correct replacements, but I’m guessing what the Reds and Padres will do which isn’t the easiest. With the disclaimers out of the way, it’s time to get to the winner and losers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Compared to last week, more transactions occurred in the NFBC’s Main Event on Sunday. I’m seeing a few more borderline starters and hitters being dropped which normally would be kept. I wonder if teams are hoarding potential closers and aren’t able to roster as many replacement level talents.
Read the rest of this entry »

With so many new and predictive statistics available to people that follow baseball, we sometimes forget to look at some of our old staples. Often times, this is with good reason. Things like xwOBA, batted ball data and wRC+ are more predictive than counting stats of yesteryear.

But one old school stat that we shouldn’t overlook is platoon splits. If a player is performing significantly different than their career norm against pitching of a certain handedness, this could suggest a regression (either positively or negatively) is coming.

Platoon splits are not an exact science. Just because a player has posted a wRC+ of 140 against left-handed pitching doesn’t necessarily mean their true talent level is 40 percent better than league average. And as many have noted in far more thoughtful and extensive work, they also take more time to normalize than we typically think. It’s possible that the trends I’m observing aren’t quite as relevant as they appear. However, the hitters listed below have significantly under performed their career norms to one degree or another and could see a bump in their production if it does revert to their typical level of performance. Read the rest of this entry »

In Tout Wars this season, I’ve run Jose Ramirez out every week. I have no issues sitting a struggling star but in Ramirez’s case, I’m basically running out Billy Hamilton which helps with steals.

One of the following stat lines in for Billy Hamilton and the other for Jose Ramirez

A. .227/.302/.280 with 16 SB
B. .211/.299/.320 with 18 SB

Which one is Ramirez?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) June 24, 2019

I’ve been waiting for a rebound but nothing so far. He’s hit .286/.310/.500 this past week but it’s just acceptable. It’s not enough to offset the horrible weeks. The numbers are lower than his preseason projections. Today, I want to determine if any hope exists for an offensive rebound. How often has a hitter been projected to hit as well as Ramirez and then struggled so bad and did he rebound? It doesn’t look good.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last Thursday, I identified and discussed six starting pitchers worth targeting in trade given their dramatic SIERA underperformance. Today, let’s discuss the pitchers that SIERA is screaming SELL SELL SELL, if SIERA was human. These are the guys whose ERA marks are significantly outperforming their SIERA marks.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the first Prospect Stock Watch of 2019. This is a little feature I’ve been doing since 2012. It provides thoughts and observations about a handful of prospects each time out. Today, we have a chance to review prospects from the Red Sox, Mets, and Blue Jays.

Tanner Houck, RHP, Red Sox (AA):

It’s been a frustrating season for the Red Sox so far so any good news out of the barren minor league season would be very welcomed. Houck’s first Double-A start will not be included in the “good news” category. The former first-round pick, and top college hurler, struggled mightily in the low-50s F weather. He threw a number of deep counts early and was around (but not consistently in) the strike zone with his collection of offerings.

Houck’s slider had its moments in the game and he showed the ability to throw it for strikes or as a chase offering. The biggest issue Houck has was that his fastball command was just not strong good enough for a starting pitcher with only two pitches. It’s too easy for hitters to sit on one offering and fight off (or lay off) everything else. The heater was mostly 91-93 mph.

It’s early but this look at Houck underscores the concerns over his overall ceiling. He looked more like a No. 4 starter than a top-of-the-rotation arm, which was the hope early on in his college career. His stuff would probably play up out of the bullpen.

Bonus: On a side note, Bobby Dalbec showed some solid athleticism at third base. In one particular instance, he charged a slow roller and threw on the run to catch a solid runner. He showed a strong arm on a number of occasions. I really like the defensive side of his game but, despite the power, the question marks remain on the offensive side. Dalbec is off to a slow start with the bat as he returns to Double-A but he does have three walks in the first three games.

David Peterson, LHP, Mets vs Zach Logue, LHP, Jays (AA)

I wanted to get my eyes on this game because of the interesting contrast in starting pitchers. Both are southpaws but Peterson was the more highly regarded college hurler as a first-round selection in the 2017 draft. Logue, meanwhile, is a fast-riser in the Jays system. He was selected in the ninth round of that same draft and, like Peterson, was making his first Double-A appearance.

Peterson showed a nice, easy arm action that made the fastball look faster than it was. He utilized his height well and kept the ball down. He also showed the ability to hit the strike zone with all of his offerings. As with any pitcher who lacks a blazing fastball, Peterson is at his best working down in the zone but he did a nice job changing hitters’ eye levels when necessary and kept the ball out of the meat of the zone when he pitched up.

Logue showed a solid curveball and worked exceptionally well at the knees with his 91-93 mph fastball. He showed the ability to get ahead of hitters with his fastball. He showed a sweeping breaking ball for strikes and would then create more depth on the offering to turn it into a chase pitch with two strikes. Logue was not afraid to throw inside to left-handed hitters. He has an easy delivery, which helped him create above-average control and command. I didn’t see much of his changeup.

Despite the significant gap in draft range with these two hurlers, their ceilings appear to be similar as future No. 4 hurlers that can come in, throw strikes, keep the ball down and provide you five or six innings of work. I give a slight edge to Peterson because he has a deeper repertoire.

Bonus: I’m quickly becoming a fan of Jays catcher Alberto Mineo. Signed out of Italy by the Cubs, he’s been a long-term project and came to the Jays last year after six years in Chicago’s system. But he’s still just 24 and coming off of a solid offensive season. Double-A will be the real test but I liked what I saw from a defensive standpoint. He created an excellent target for the pitcher and had a very quiet set-up behind the plate. Mineo has also maintained his athletic build despite the time behind the dish. In his first at-bat of the night, the left-handed hitter took the ball the other way against the southpaw for a well-stung single. If the offensive showing from 2018 (which actually began in ’17) continues, there might actually be a big league back-up here.

I’m experimenting with a new article format this year. Instead of concentrating on the most added players, I’m going to concentrate on those poor souls owners are throwing in the towel on. Most of the discarded players will have been demoted to the minor or dinged up. It’s the few who don’t fit into either of these two categories who I will focus on. Sadly, there aren’t many this first week.

To find which players are being dropped, I’m going to use the NFBC Main Event leagues. They are 15-team roto leagues which have some depth and most of the owners will be trying since each posted a $1K+ entry fee. The league will contain active owners making overall trends easier to spot. This week, I have the adds and drops from only 18 leagues since some leagues haven’t drafted yet and included my top-three choices at the end.

Injured List

Jason Kipnis: 7

Kipnis and the scrubs the Indians are using in the infield should be monitored closely. Kipnis should get his job back once healthy and he could be a reasonable buy a week early for a team needing infield help.

Read the rest of this entry »