Who is Being Dropped & Why
I’m experimenting with a new article format this year. Instead of concentrating on the most added players, I’m going to concentrate on those poor souls owners are throwing in the towel on. Most of the discarded players will have been demoted to the minor or dinged up. It’s the few who don’t fit into either of these two categories who I will focus on. Sadly, there aren’t many this first week.
To find which players are being dropped, I’m going to use the NFBC Main Event leagues. They are 15-team roto leagues which have some depth and most of the owners will be trying since each posted a $1K+ entry fee. The league will contain active owners making overall trends easier to spot. This week, I have the adds and drops from only 18 leagues since some leagues haven’t drafted yet and included my top-three choices at the end.
Injured List
Jason Kipnis: 7
Kipnis and the scrubs the Indians are using in the infield should be monitored closely. Kipnis should get his job back once healthy and he could be a reasonable buy a week early for a team needing infield help.
Ryan Borucki: 6
CC Sabathia: 5
I may jump and roster Sabathia if he becomes available in one of my leagues. He’s a perfectly usable streaming option once healthy.
Corey Knebel: 5
Danny Duffy: 4
Duffy’s talent is borderline usable and the injury just makes him expendable. He may be worth a look once he’s back in the majors.
Kyle Seager: 4
Demoted List
Chance Sisco: 11
Austin Hays (and now also hurt): 9
Ian Happ: 8
I read/heard some reports that Happ is mad about his demotion. Until he figures out a way to hit major league fastballs, he deserves the demotion.
He won’t last on the wire very long. He was only demoted to the minors so CC Sabathia can serve his suspension. Owners should pick up Loaisiga in case he breaks out.
His demotion is a little weird and I’m wondering if the Braves want to keep him on a regular rotation with all the early off days and carry an extra bullpen arm. While I’ve never been as high on him as the rest of the fantasy community, he’s a decent arm and it could take quite a bit of FAAB to own him when he gets promoted back to the majors. Buy a week early instead of a week late.
Others
The move to the bullpen killed any value he had. Monitor Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes production since neither has been a productive major league starter and Anderson could take their rotation spot at some point.
His blowup in Japan (3 ER, 1K in 5 IP) destroyed what little value he might have had. He’s still an extreme flyball pitcher whose home park has the most foul-ball space in the majors. There are going to be many games where he’s a streamable option.
Alex Verdugo: 3
He’s a fourth outfielder at this point until A.J. Pollock gets hurt.
I think some owners gambled on the Cubs closer role but Pedro Strop has quickly returned from his hamstring injury to close.
Eric Thames: 3
Thames is a part-time backup until someone on the Brewers goes on the DL (see Ryan Braun).
I was one of the Odorizzi droppers, so I understand this move. Odorizzi is an accumulator but the results are just getting worse by the year. He ERA has climbed each of the past three seasons (3.35 to 3.69 to 4.14 to 4.49).
Robbie Erlin: 3
Erlin got moved to the bullpen so his value is gone for now.
With Greg Holland getting ordained the Diamondbacks closer, Hirano’s value plummets.
My top three adds are:
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
The ‘Others’ are interesting since you can see a path to fantasy viability for about half of them
I like this. I think it would be especially helpful in March and April.
any of the SP’s getting moved to the BP valuable in a Sv/holds leauge, where they can be slotted in at SP to win that category and era/whip?
I have Kipnis and Toussaint each on a couple NFBC teams and decided to keep both of them last night. It’s reassuring to see them as part of the top 3 adds!! I only expect to wait an extra couple weeks for them to contribute, so no sense dropping them.
I’ve got Pederson and Verdugo,….I think it was Fangraphs that led me to believe they’ll platoon…. so I drafted them, and keeping both, hoping to get the right one in each day…..Are you saying I should use Verdugo’s roster spot on my team for a better option?
They both lefties. Verdugo isn’t taking at bats from Pederson
Thanks…I didn’t realize that…..I appreciate the insight…..but I just checked with Fangraphs “teams” and then “Dodgers”, and for “LF”, Fangraphs says Pederson 45% and underneath Verdugo 40%…doesn’t that mean 45 and 40 percent of the time/At Bats?
You are correct. It is probably more accurate to refer to it as a time-share rather than a platoon. Of course, it is a projection. It is possible that one of them will earn a larger share of the ABs as the season wears on. For now, I think Jeff is saying that he believes Pederson has the advantage. You should always be looking to upgrade, but whether you will be able to do so depends on the depth of your league and what’s available. Both players have upside so sitting tight for now is a reasonable option.
Of course if I recall correctly, Verdugo has a career so far with very little split differential, whereas Pederson’s is huge, so Verdugo very well may get the at-bats vs. lefties.
Its spelled: Jonny Lasagna
Great concept and nicely written. The “other” section will be the most interesting to watch throughout the season.
This was depressing. Much rather read about adds than drops
There’s lots of profit to be made in drops. Everyone already knows about the adds. That’s why they’re being added!
Drops can be fun trade targets. Add lists are so often ‘look at this list of guys you missed out on by 6 hours.’
On Hirano, I am actually more in line with Justin Mason’s take on him in that I want him more now, for no cost at all. Just because Holland was named the closer doesn’t mean he is magically gaining back his velocity. Unless Holland gets that velo back, I see Hirano getting saves within weeks.