Fantasy Gainers & Fallers in CLE, CIN, & SD Trade

What a great trade (and fight) last night. This trade has so many moving parts that I’m going to focus on those players seeing their in-season fantasy value changing enough for owners to act. I’m not going to touch keeper/dynasty values as league rules will determine much of the player’s valuation. I’ll try to get past the main characters and find those players who need to be picked up or dropped.

While I’m supposed to provide instant analysis on this blockbuster trade, the true fantasy value gainers and decliners aren’t going to be 100% known for a few days. Owners will keep sticking Trevor Bauer and Yasiel Puig in their lineup. While the park factors and league context will change their value a bit, it’s non-actionable. They aren’t going to be dropped or added so the trade doesn’t affect their value.

The exact gain rankings aren’t known yet as who replaces Puig and who Bauer pushes out of the Reds rotation. Owners in weekly FAAB leagues will have time to make a decision and see who the MLB teams use for replacements. In the wild, wild west of quick-click leagues, hopefully, I can provide the correct replacements, but I’m guessing what the Reds and Padres will do which isn’t the easiest. With the disclaimers out of the way, it’s time to get to the winner and losers.

Just for quick reference, here are the players involved in the trade.

Indians get:
Yasiel Puig
Franmil Reyes
Logan Allen
Victor Nova
Scott Moss

Padres get:
Taylor Trammell

Reds get:
Trevor Bauer

I’ll start with the players with the biggest in-season fantasy value increase to those heading down.

Moving up

Wil Myers: With Reyes leaving, an outfield spot opens up for Myers. While Myers has started in the last five games, in the 15 games before then, he started in just one. While Myers has been a batting average drag (.221), he’s still hit 13 homers and stole nine bags. His production was as predicted but there just hasn’t been the playing time. I expect his 51% ownership (CBS) to jump on the news.

Josh VanMeter/Jesse Winker winner: Puig’s right-field spot opens up and Winker and VanMeter are the top two candidates to fill the spot. Both had been playing irregularly with Phillip Ervin slotting in against lefties and Nick Senzel dealing with nagging injuries opening up time. While some sources are giving Winker the fulltime job and VanMeter the Ervin-platoon, I think it’ll end up the other way. So far this season, Winker has a .442 OPS against lefties (.545 for his career) and .863 OPS against righties. For VanMeter, he has a .750 OPS against lefties and .961 against righties. Winker can’t hit lefties at all, maybe VanMeter can, so I think he’ll get the fulltime plate appearances.

Logan Allen: He last threw on the 26th so he’s able to start for the Indians immediately. He was almost a “staying even” guy but I think the chances for Wins and facing the AL Central teams several times will make him a better streaming option than he was with the Padres.

Josh VanMeter/Jesse Winker loser: See Josh VanMeter/Jesse Winker winner above.

Franmil Reyes: It’s tough to know if Reyes is moving up or staying even because it’s impossible to know how fantasy owners were valuing him before the trade. While his 27 homers are nice, his playing time has been all over the place. In late June to early July, he started 10 straight games, but only six of the last nine. With the Indians, he slots into the DH slot and should play every day. For Reyes, the move clears up his playing time.

Phillip Ervin: He’s been dominating lefties (.552/.618/1.069) and should continue to start against lefties. There is a small chance he could move past the platoon and play against righties (vs RHP .255/.317/.345).

Staying Even

The Padres rotation (Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, and Cal Quantrill): Like Reyes, various owners may have had different values on the Padre starters depending on how close they follow the team. Allen had been the rotation for a while, but his last start was on July 16th when Miami roughed him up for seven runs in two innings. I think starters will continue to move in-and-out of the rotation based on an inning’s limit and/or poor performance.

Trevor Bauer and Yasiel Puig: Both were universally owned and started before the trade and both will be universally owned and started after.

Jordan Luplow: He should always face lefties (.306/.414/.694) and I expect him to continue to do so. He’ll slot in at various spots to giving someone a break.

Victor Nova, Scott Moss, and Taylor Trammell: While Trammel has a small chance of being called up this season, none of the three prospects are must-adds in redraft leagues.

Moving Down

Someone(s) in the Reds rotation: Right now, the Reds have a six-man rotation (Luis Castillo, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, and Bauer) and I don’t see them waiting an extra day for Bauer, Castillo, and Gray. There could be a trade coming or someone goes into the long relief role.

Tyler Naquin: His value was limited since he was in a platoon with Luplow. Now he’ll have to share that precious time with Jake Bauers and Greg Allen.

Jake Bauers and Greg Allen: What little fantasy value these two had is gone. While they stay in the majors, they’ll be sharing time with Naquin and Luplow for the third outfield spot. I could see a possible scenario where Bauers (.235/.309/.382) takes over in the outfield from Naquin.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR once, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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whaiiimember
3 years ago

Naquin is hitting the ball so hard this year. I hope he can hold on to the platoon spot.

emh1969
3 years ago
Reply to  whaiii

Yeah, the comment on Naquin was weird. Hard to see Bauers taking over for him. In fact, I’d be surprised if Bauers and Allen don’t get sent down to the minors.

emh1969
3 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

True but who else were they supposed to play? Sure I would have liked them to give Daniel Johnson a chance. But there’s no guarantee he’ll be better than Bauers. So before this trade, there was no “sure thing” that coild take his place.