Archive for Starting Pitchers

Introduction

Last year’s FSWA Research Article of the Year, CSW Rate: An Intro to an Important New Metric, was awarded to Alex Fast of PitcherList. In his article, Alex presents the pitching statistic, CSW – a metric which was originally coined and created by Nick Pollack in 2018. As cited in the author’s article summary, CSW is more predictive than Swinging Strike Rate (SwStr%), and is more descriptive than Whiff Rate (Whiff%).

The short and simple formula for CSW is defined as follows:

Called Strikes + Whiffs
Total Pitches

I enjoy elegant formulae. Sure – wOBA, wRC+ and the like are extraordinary metrics in their own right, but they are not the simplest to jot down. CSW is plain, simple, easy to understand, and nicely predictive.

Coincidentally, and unknowing of CSW, I came up with the concept of wPDI back in 2018. I then published my first works of the plate discipline framework on April 2, 2019. The original article was entitled Introducing: Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) for Pitchers, and can be found here.

What jumped out to me immediately upon reading Fasts’s article – was that the two metrics have something very in common. CSW and wPDI both share the very same denominator – Total Pitches. The base of both of our metrics are identical. Both utilize the very same sample size, both stabilize just as quickly, and both describe baseball through the very same lens – the pitch.

As a quick reminder of how wPDI works, every pitch can be classified into 6 possible pitching outcomes.

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On Tuesday, I shared and discussed the starting pitchers that have suffered the largest declines in their fastball velocity compared with 2019. A significant drop in fastball velocity could be a warning sign of injury, and already one decliner, Reynaldo Lopez, has hit the IL. Today, I’m going to update the list again with starters who have pitched since my last post. Once again, these are the starters whose “Pitch Type” fastball velocity has decreased by at least one mile per hour versus last year.

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On Monday, I shared and discussed the 10 starting pitchers that have increased their fastball velocity the most compared with 2019. Finding the early velocity surgers is one of the best ways to identify the season’s breakouts, as velocity has a high correlation with strikeout rate, so a higher velocity should result in more strikeouts, which should reduce ERA. Since it’s so important, I’m going to update the list again with starters who have pitched since then. Once again, these are the starters whose “Pitch Type” fastball velocity has increased at least one mile per hour versus last year.

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Yesterday, I identified and discussed starting pitchers who have experienced at least a one mile per hour jump in fastball velocity. Sure, it’s just one start, but velocity stabilizes much faster than any result or skill-based stat. Today, I’ll look at the flip side – those pitchers who have suffered a velocity decline versus last year. Note that my level of bullishness is higher for the velocity gainers than the level of bearishness for velocity decliners (assuming the same amount of gain and decline if comparing two pitchers). You can’t really fake a velocity jump, but there are myriad reasons why a pitcher’s velocity was down in his first start.

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It’s super early, so there’s not a whole lot to analyze at this point, aside from injuries and playing time. However, there is something that stabilizes very quickly, and that’s fastball velocity. It also carries great significance, as fastball velocity is highly correlated with strikeout rate. All else being equal, a higher strikeout rate should result in a lower ERA and WHIP. So after one start, whose fastball velocity has spiked by at least one mile per hour versus 2019? I used the “Pitch Type” velocities, rather than “Pitch Info Pitch Type”, because the latter section takes a full day to update and therefore doesn’t have the velocities from Saturday’s games. I also only compared 2020 velocity to velocity during games started in 2019, so if a starter made any relief appearances, those wouldn’t be counted as part of 2019 velocity.

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Read first before freaking out

I started digging into pitch velocities and documented everyone who has changed. Two trends immediately appeared. The overall velocities were down and a few pitchers experienced major drops.

Normally in Spring Training, teams build a pitcher up to their maximum velocity and then start increasing the innings. At this point, all starters should have been ramped up to a full workload with their next start being in the regular season. Many don’t seem ready.

First off, I’m a little suspect of the velocity reading. Back in 2017, MLB installed new pitch-tracking systems and the velocities were high. A new system has been installed (Hawkeye) so something will likely be off. It is the MLB who can’t find a home for a team and decides to expand the playoffs with the season starting … that day. MLB going to MLB.

A second possible cause could the unique ramp up to the 2020 season. Teams have implemented different approaches to keeping their pitchers ready. Some of the velocities are down 5 mph from two separate parks. Maybe the pitchers are still worn down from the long postseason and four-month quarantine. Of the cameras are off. Or both.

Fastball velocities are down for a reason, but the cause(s) remains unknown. Fantasy owners need to remain calm and hopefully, in a few days, the truth will be known.
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For the 60-game season, I’m going to rank the starters each week by their probable matchup(s). This will be different than my standard longer-term rankings as it will be hyper-focused on the week ahead. As such a solid two-start arm (of which there are none this time around since I’m focusing solely on the upcoming Thursday-Sunday run) with good matchups will slot above a superstar ace in a one-start week, though you’ll likely not be pressed to choose between the two. The decisions will likely wind up on the fringes when you’re deciding between your last starter and another reliever. Talent will still matter, but matchups can create some separation in the short term.

Here’s what I’ve got based on the probable SP lists and notes I’ve gone over thus far. Let me know if someone I have listed is for sure not starting this weekend.

The notes will always be sporadic throughout the chart as I won’t always have something to say about every single arm.

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07/20/20

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2020 STARTING PITCHER RANKING REVIEW

• Reviewing my latest SP Rankings (here)

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Note: If you read this on Saturday evening, I’m likely to add a few names as I do some more research and more news rolls in.

Projecting this season’s FAAB is going to be a nightmare. In past seasons, the process seemed fruitless at times but it’s going to be even more of a mess this season. Most leagues are giving teams the same amount of FAAB to cover a third of the season that will lead to some high dollar desperate bidding. Additionally, when a league was drafted matters. For instance, I have two leagues running FAAB tomorrow. The one from early March I need to clean up (e.g. one had Trey Mancini) and the other I drafted last so I may gamble on some different bullpen arms.

In this article, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS used a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed.

Additionally, I’m going to add anyone else I fill is appropriate.

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We’re a week away from baseball. I unloaded the chamber and dropped 181 names here (and probably still missed SOMEONE). As with the last update, I’ll have a podcast or column out on Monday covering specifics, but for today here are the rankings with the comparison to the last list.

Let’s talk about these rankings the comments!

(Blue indicates a new tier starting)

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