Weekly Starter Rankings: Opening Weekend by Paul Sporer July 22, 2020 For the 60-game season, I’m going to rank the starters each week by their probable matchup(s). This will be different than my standard longer-term rankings as it will be hyper-focused on the week ahead. As such a solid two-start arm (of which there are none this time around since I’m focusing solely on the upcoming Thursday-Sunday run) with good matchups will slot above a superstar ace in a one-start week, though you’ll likely not be pressed to choose between the two. The decisions will likely wind up on the fringes when you’re deciding between your last starter and another reliever. Talent will still matter, but matchups can create some separation in the short term. Here’s what I’ve got based on the probable SP lists and notes I’ve gone over thus far. Let me know if someone I have listed is for sure not starting this weekend. The notes will always be sporadic throughout the chart as I won’t always have something to say about every single arm. Opening Week SP Rankings PITCHER TEAM OPP(s) NOTE 1 Clayton Kershaw LAD SF Owns SF in career w/a 1.74 career ERA in 342.3 IP (2.37 last yr) 2 Justin Verlander HOU SEA 3 Mike Clevinger CLE KC ClevDog is 9-0 in 12 career starts v. KC 4 Luis Castillo CIN DET Great matchup boosts Castillo & Gray for this wknd 5 Sonny Gray CIN DET 6 Shane Bieber CLE KC 7 Gerrit Cole NYY at WAS Tough first gm but obviously an auto-start 8 Jack Flaherty STL PIT Allowed 1 ER in 15 IP w/18 K v. PIT last yr 9 Jacob deGrom NYM ATL Back soreness said to be fine after side work on Tues. 10 Max Scherzer WAS NYY Tough matchup but Scherzer & Stras are still mega-stud autostarts 11 Stephen Strasburg WAS NYY 12 Aaron Nola PHI MIA Likely to open MIA, at NYY, at MIA 13 Zack Greinke HOU SEA Should be fully ramped up for the weekend 14 Trevor Bauer CIN DET I’m lower on him than most, but he opens w/DET twice 15 Charlie Morton TB TOR 16 Carlos Carrasco CLE KC Looking healthy & ready to go w/a cushy first matchup 17 Jose Berrios MIN at CWS 18 Yu Darvish CHC MIL 5 ER in final tuneup could net a draft day discount this wk 19 Blake Snell TB TOR Could wind up on Monday v. ATL, stay tuned 20 Frankie Montas OAK LAA Opens w/3 straight home starts (LAA, COL, TEX) 21 Lucas Giolito CWS MIN Big first matchup in his follow up to last year’s elite breakout 22 Kyle Hendricks CHC MIL 23 Lance McCullers Jr. HOU SEA Capable of being an ace on a per-inning basis 24 Shohei Ohtani LAA at OAK Sundays are his day so an easy start in the short week 25 Corey Kluber TEX COL Up to 98 pitches in latest tuneup 26 Zack Wheeler PHI MIA Some uncertainty around his season, but use him while he’s here 27 Chris Paddack SD ARI 28 Brandon Woodruff MIL at CHC MIL ace will max out on starts pitching from the 1-spot 29 Lance Lynn TEX COL 30 Ross Stripling LAD SF Ramped up and ready to go at six innings 31 James Paxton NYY at WAS 32 Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 TOR at TB Boost in home park if they do make PNC their temporary home 33 Julio Urías LAD SF Threw 5 IP in final tuneup, should be ready to go as a normal SP 34 Alex Wood LAD SF Also looks ready to go after 89-pitch final tuneup 35 Joe Musgrove PIT at STL 36 Kenta Maeda MIN at CWS Not easy matchup, but the Sox aren’t an avoid lineup for good arms 37 Zac Gallen ARI at SD 38 Mike Soroka ATL at NYM Dominated on road last yr: 1.55 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 98.7 IP 39 Robbie Ray ARI at SD 40 Madison Bumgarner ARI at SD 41 Max Fried ATL at NYM Rumors of piggybacking seem to have died on the vine 42 Mike Minor TEX COL 43 Garrett Richards SD ARI Has at COL at v. LAD after opening week start 44 Germán Márquez COL at TEX Opens w/2 road starts before a pair at home v. SD & SF 45 Jake Odorizzi MIN at CWS Monitor mild back stiffness in the lead up to lineup lock 46 Nathan Eovaldi BOS BAL Has top spot in BOS rotation w/Sale inj. & E-Rod COVID 47 Mitch Keller PIT at STL 48 Corbin Burnes MIL at CHC B.Anderson blister guarantees early spot for Burnes 49 Matthew Boyd DET at CIN HR pitcher in a HR park could be trouble v. this strong lineup 50 Jon Gray COL at TEX Weirdly always been better at home, but I’d still start him here 51 Ryan Yarbrough TB TOR Hit 87 pitches in final start, should have 5-6 IP in arm for debut 52 Andrew Heaney LAA at OAK 53 Marcus Stroman NYM ATL 54 Dylan Bundy LAA at OAK Maybe a week 2 sit w/HOU on the docket 55 Sandy Alcantara MIA at PHI Gets at BAL and v. PHI after this open; solid short-term investment 56 Sean Manaea OAK LAA 57 Caleb Smith MIA at PHI See also: Alcantara comment 58 Dinelson Lamet SD ARI Could face 7 lefties/switchies here (221-pt OPS platoon split) 59 Dallas Keuchel CWS MIN Crafty vet who I think might be too slept on 60 Danny Duffy KC at CLE 61 Freddy Peralta MIL at CHC Could be Lindblom in this spot, stay tuned before starting either 62 Dakota Hudson STL PIT Solid matchup, but don’t trust last yr’s 3.35 ERA at all 63 Spencer Turnbull DET at CIN Love the talent but at CIN, v. CIN, at STL to start is tooouuugghhh 64 Reynaldo López CWS MIN Still love the talent, but this is a brutal opener 65 Matt Shoemaker TOR at TB Brutal trio to open the yr: at TB, v. WAS, at ATL 66 Mike Montgomery KC at CLE 67 Adam Wainwright STL PIT Had 3.41 ERA and 1.28 WHIP v. PIT in 5 starts last yr 68 Martín Pérez BOS BAL Solid last pick in deep lgs specifically for this start 69 Brady Singer KC at CLE Eager to see the rookie debut, but can’t start him in fantasy just yet 70 Jake Arrieta PHI MIA Don’t sleep on MIA as a moderately tough matchup 71 Jeff Samardzija SF at LAD 72 Johnny Cueto SF at LAD 73 Sean Newcomb ATL at NYM IP likely to be managed for at least first few starts 74 Marco Gonzales SEA at HOU I like all 3 SEA SPs a bit, but not w/a trip to HOU 75 Taijuan Walker SEA at HOU 76 Yusei Kikuchi SEA at HOU 77 Tanner Roark TOR at TB Likely going 4 IP on Saturday 78 Kyle Freeland COL at TEX 79 Mike Fiers OAK LAA Always good for a handful of gems, but timing them is hard 80 Kevin Gausman SF at LAD Nervous to trust him as an SP again 81 Trevor Williams PIT at STL 82 Michael King NYY at WAS Could be the opener for Loaisiga, who I like a lot 83 Drew Smyly SF at LAD 84 José Ureña MIA at PHI 85 Ryan Weber BOS BAL Maybe an AL-only play if you’re desperate 86 Rick Porcello NYM ATL 87 Tyler Chatwood CHC MIL 88 Alex Cobb BAL at BOS 89 Tommy Milone BAL at BOS 90 Wade LeBlanc BAL at BOS 91 Iván Nova DET at CIN We hoped you liked reading Weekly Starter Rankings: Opening Weekend by Paul Sporer! Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats. FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage. Support FanGraphs