Weekly Starter Rankings: Opening Weekend
For the 60-game season, I’m going to rank the starters each week by their probable matchup(s). This will be different than my standard longer-term rankings as it will be hyper-focused on the week ahead. As such a solid two-start arm (of which there are none this time around since I’m focusing solely on the upcoming Thursday-Sunday run) with good matchups will slot above a superstar ace in a one-start week, though you’ll likely not be pressed to choose between the two. The decisions will likely wind up on the fringes when you’re deciding between your last starter and another reliever. Talent will still matter, but matchups can create some separation in the short term.
Here’s what I’ve got based on the probable SP lists and notes I’ve gone over thus far. Let me know if someone I have listed is for sure not starting this weekend.
The notes will always be sporadic throughout the chart as I won’t always have something to say about every single arm.
Opening Week SP Rankings
| PITCHER | TEAM | OPP(s) | NOTE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | SF | Owns SF in career w/a 1.74 career ERA in 342.3 IP (2.37 last yr) |
| 2 | Justin Verlander | HOU | SEA | |
| 3 | Mike Clevinger | CLE | KC | ClevDog is 9-0 in 12 career starts v. KC |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | CIN | DET | Great matchup boosts Castillo & Gray for this wknd |
| 5 | Sonny Gray | CIN | DET | |
| 6 | Shane Bieber | CLE | KC | |
| 7 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | at WAS | Tough first gm but obviously an auto-start |
| 8 | Jack Flaherty | STL | PIT | Allowed 1 ER in 15 IP w/18 K v. PIT last yr |
| 9 | Jacob deGrom | NYM | ATL | Back soreness said to be fine after side work on Tues. |
| 10 | Max Scherzer | WAS | NYY | Tough matchup but Scherzer & Stras are still mega-stud autostarts |
| 11 | Stephen Strasburg | WAS | NYY | |
| 12 | Aaron Nola | PHI | MIA | Likely to open MIA, at NYY, at MIA |
| 13 | Zack Greinke | HOU | SEA | Should be fully ramped up for the weekend |
| 14 | Trevor Bauer | CIN | DET | I’m lower on him than most, but he opens w/DET twice |
| 15 | Charlie Morton | TB | TOR | |
| 16 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | KC | Looking healthy & ready to go w/a cushy first matchup |
| 17 | Jose Berrios | MIN | at CWS | |
| 18 | Yu Darvish | CHC | MIL | 5 ER in final tuneup could net a draft day discount this wk |
| 19 | Blake Snell | TB | TOR | Could wind up on Monday v. ATL, stay tuned |
| 20 | Frankie Montas | OAK | LAA | Opens w/3 straight home starts (LAA, COL, TEX) |
| 21 | Lucas Giolito | CWS | MIN | Big first matchup in his follow up to last year’s elite breakout |
| 22 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | MIL | |
| 23 | Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU | SEA | Capable of being an ace on a per-inning basis |
| 24 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | at OAK | Sundays are his day so an easy start in the short week |
| 25 | Corey Kluber | TEX | COL | Up to 98 pitches in latest tuneup |
| 26 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | MIA | Some uncertainty around his season, but use him while he’s here |
| 27 | Chris Paddack | SD | ARI | |
| 28 | Brandon Woodruff | MIL | at CHC | MIL ace will max out on starts pitching from the 1-spot |
| 29 | Lance Lynn | TEX | COL | |
| 30 | Ross Stripling | LAD | SF | Ramped up and ready to go at six innings |
| 31 | James Paxton | NYY | at WAS | |
| 32 | Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 | TOR | at TB | Boost in home park if they do make PNC their temporary home |
| 33 | Julio Urías | LAD | SF | Threw 5 IP in final tuneup, should be ready to go as a normal SP |
| 34 | Alex Wood | LAD | SF | Also looks ready to go after 89-pitch final tuneup |
| 35 | Joe Musgrove | PIT | at STL | |
| 36 | Kenta Maeda | MIN | at CWS | Not easy matchup, but the Sox aren’t an avoid lineup for good arms |
| 37 | Zac Gallen | ARI | at SD | |
| 38 | Mike Soroka | ATL | at NYM | Dominated on road last yr: 1.55 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 98.7 IP |
| 39 | Robbie Ray | ARI | at SD | |
| 40 | Madison Bumgarner | ARI | at SD | |
| 41 | Max Fried | ATL | at NYM | Rumors of piggybacking seem to have died on the vine |
| 42 | Mike Minor | TEX | COL | |
| 43 | Garrett Richards | SD | ARI | Has at COL at v. LAD after opening week start |
| 44 | Germán Márquez | COL | at TEX | Opens w/2 road starts before a pair at home v. SD & SF |
| 45 | Jake Odorizzi | MIN | at CWS | Monitor mild back stiffness in the lead up to lineup lock |
| 46 | Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | BAL | Has top spot in BOS rotation w/Sale inj. & E-Rod COVID |
| 47 | Mitch Keller | PIT | at STL | |
| 48 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | at CHC | B.Anderson blister guarantees early spot for Burnes |
| 49 | Matthew Boyd | DET | at CIN | HR pitcher in a HR park could be trouble v. this strong lineup |
| 50 | Jon Gray | COL | at TEX | Weirdly always been better at home, but I’d still start him here |
| 51 | Ryan Yarbrough | TB | TOR | Hit 87 pitches in final start, should have 5-6 IP in arm for debut |
| 52 | Andrew Heaney | LAA | at OAK | |
| 53 | Marcus Stroman | NYM | ATL | |
| 54 | Dylan Bundy | LAA | at OAK | Maybe a week 2 sit w/HOU on the docket |
| 55 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | at PHI | Gets at BAL and v. PHI after this open; solid short-term investment |
| 56 | Sean Manaea | OAK | LAA | |
| 57 | Caleb Smith | MIA | at PHI | See also: Alcantara comment |
| 58 | Dinelson Lamet | SD | ARI | Could face 7 lefties/switchies here (221-pt OPS platoon split) |
| 59 | Dallas Keuchel | CWS | MIN | Crafty vet who I think might be too slept on |
| 60 | Danny Duffy | KC | at CLE | |
| 61 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | at CHC | Could be Lindblom in this spot, stay tuned before starting either |
| 62 | Dakota Hudson | STL | PIT | Solid matchup, but don’t trust last yr’s 3.35 ERA at all |
| 63 | Spencer Turnbull | DET | at CIN | Love the talent but at CIN, v. CIN, at STL to start is tooouuugghhh |
| 64 | Reynaldo López | CWS | MIN | Still love the talent, but this is a brutal opener |
| 65 | Matt Shoemaker | TOR | at TB | Brutal trio to open the yr: at TB, v. WAS, at ATL |
| 66 | Mike Montgomery | KC | at CLE | |
| 67 | Adam Wainwright | STL | PIT | Had 3.41 ERA and 1.28 WHIP v. PIT in 5 starts last yr |
| 68 | Martín Pérez | BOS | BAL | Solid last pick in deep lgs specifically for this start |
| 69 | Brady Singer | KC | at CLE | Eager to see the rookie debut, but can’t start him in fantasy just yet |
| 70 | Jake Arrieta | PHI | MIA | Don’t sleep on MIA as a moderately tough matchup |
| 71 | Jeff Samardzija | SF | at LAD | |
| 72 | Johnny Cueto | SF | at LAD | |
| 73 | Sean Newcomb | ATL | at NYM | IP likely to be managed for at least first few starts |
| 74 | Marco Gonzales | SEA | at HOU | I like all 3 SEA SPs a bit, but not w/a trip to HOU |
| 75 | Taijuan Walker | SEA | at HOU | |
| 76 | Yusei Kikuchi | SEA | at HOU | |
| 77 | Tanner Roark | TOR | at TB | Likely going 4 IP on Saturday |
| 78 | Kyle Freeland | COL | at TEX | |
| 79 | Mike Fiers | OAK | LAA | Always good for a handful of gems, but timing them is hard |
| 80 | Kevin Gausman | SF | at LAD | Nervous to trust him as an SP again |
| 81 | Trevor Williams | PIT | at STL | |
| 82 | Michael King | NYY | at WAS | Could be the opener for Loaisiga, who I like a lot |
| 83 | Drew Smyly | SF | at LAD | |
| 84 | José Ureña | MIA | at PHI | |
| 85 | Ryan Weber | BOS | BAL | Maybe an AL-only play if you’re desperate |
| 86 | Rick Porcello | NYM | ATL | |
| 87 | Tyler Chatwood | CHC | MIL | |
| 88 | Alex Cobb | BAL | at BOS | |
| 89 | Tommy Milone | BAL | at BOS | |
| 90 | Wade LeBlanc | BAL | at BOS | |
| 91 | Iván Nova | DET | at CIN |
Nice list. Carlos Martinez ?
Think it’s Flaherty-Waino-Hudson this wknd
Not sure I can trust Garrett Richards in the early going given that schedule. His first start vs AZ is fine if he isn’t rusty – but what if he still is? His most recent summer camp start was inconsistent. Then like you said at COL and vs LAD. Yikes!
Odorizzi and Stroman on the IL
Velasquez instead of Arrieta on Sunday.
Great stuff! I would wonder where the line is for “I’d rather have a solid middle reliever than the guys below”
Was wondering the same thing
Great list, always nice to get someone else’s opinion about some sketchy starts. Perhaps it’s too late to remove/comment on the list now, but Marcus Stroman won’t be starting this weekend or likely any others in the near future.
I don’t think there are 45 pitchers in better situations than Nathan Eovaldi at home against the Orioles.
Have you guys put out a list of guys who are likely to follow? If not, is that something you’re looking at?
Eovaldi v. Baltimore,,,,way too low.
Great idea, looking forward to more from this series! I second the suggestion of some kind of dividing line for “consider a good middle reliever from here on”.
Keep up the good work, Paul. Now that I really enjoy your work, you will go the way of Dave, Jeff, Eno, and a host of others some other place in the baseball world. FG somehow survives every casualty!
This is gooderly. TYVM!
Suggestion for Week #2, since you’re going to be figuring it out anyway and just combining them,: Include items for both start for 2xSPs? Some of us live in daily leagues where that has just as much value.
Nice
Velazquez has game 2 for philly
It’s game 3, but ya that was a late change. I’d def start him v. MIA.
Rich Hill is getting the start instead of Odorizzi, I believe. Same spot or would Hill be somewhere different?
Glasnow?
Don’t have him going this wknd
Two start for Civale? CHW @ Min