Updated Starting Pitcher Rankings
We’re a week away from baseball. I unloaded the chamber and dropped 181 names here (and probably still missed SOMEONE). As with the last update, I’ll have a podcast or column out on Monday covering specifics, but for today here are the rankings with the comparison to the last list.
Let’s talk about these rankings the comments!
(Blue indicates a new tier starting)
60-Game Season SP Ranks
| PLAYER | TM | LAST | DIFF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | WAS | 2 | 0 |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | HOU | 3 | 0 |
| 4 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | 4 | 0 |
| 5 | Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 6 | 1 |
| 6 | Mike Clevinger | CLE | 7 | 1 |
| 7 | Shane Bieber | CLE | 9 | 2 |
| 8 | Luis Castillo | CIN | 12 | 4 |
| 9 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 10 | 1 |
| 10 | Blake Snell | TB | 11 | 1 |
| 11 | Jack Flaherty | STL | 13 | 2 |
| 12 | Walker Buehler | LAD | 5 | -7 |
| 13 | Patrick Corbin | WAS | 8 | -5 |
| 14 | Charlie Morton | TB | 15 | 1 |
| 15 | Lucas Giolito | CWS | 14 | -1 |
| 16 | Yu Darvish | CHC | 16 | 0 |
| 17 | Zack Greinke | HOU | 17 | 0 |
| 18 | Frankie Montas | OAK | 18 | 0 |
| 19 | Sonny Gray | CIN | 23 | 4 |
| 20 | Chris Paddack | SD | 19 | -1 |
| 21 | James Paxton | NYY | 21 | 0 |
| 22 | José Berríos | MIN | 24 | 2 |
| 23 | Corey Kluber | TEX | 25 | 2 |
| 24 | Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 26 | 2 |
| 25 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 59 | 34 |
| 26 | Aaron Nola | PHI | 22 | -4 |
| 27 | Lance Lynn | TEX | 28 | 1 |
| 28 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | 30 | 2 |
| 29 | Hyun-Jin Ryu 류현진 | TOR | 29 | 0 |
| 30 | Tyler Glasnow | TB | 20 | -10 |
| 31 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 31 | 0 |
| 32 | Max Fried | ATL | 27 | -5 |
| 33 | Mike Soroka | ATL | 32 | -1 |
| 34 | Jake Odorizzi | MIN | 33 | -1 |
| 35 | Kenta Maeda | MIN | 34 | -1 |
| 36 | Joe Musgrove | PIT | 37 | 1 |
| 37 | Trevor Bauer | CIN | 38 | 1 |
| 38 | Matthew Boyd | DET | 44 | 6 |
| 39 | Luke Weaver | ARI | 41 | 2 |
| 40 | Julio Urías | LAD | 35 | -5 |
| 41 | Ross Stripling | LAD | 103 | 62 |
| 42 | Zac Gallen | ARI | 42 | 0 |
| 43 | Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU | 51 | 8 |
| 44 | Jesús Luzardo | OAK | 43 | -1 |
| 45 | Mike Minor | TEX | 46 | 1 |
| 46 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | 36 | -10 |
| 47 | Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 47 | 0 |
| 48 | Aaron Civale | CLE | 53 | 5 |
| 49 | Madison Bumgarner | ARI | 45 | -4 |
| 50 | Carlos Martinez | STL | 39 | -11 |
| 51 | Robbie Ray | ARI | 49 | -2 |
| 52 | Garrett Richards | SD | 81 | 29 |
| 53 | German Márquez | COL | 52 | -1 |
| 54 | A.J. Puk | OAK | 85 | 31 |
| 55 | Mitch Keller | PIT | 55 | 0 |
| 56 | Josh James | HOU | 79 | 23 |
| 57 | Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | 86 | 29 |
| 58 | Dinelson Lamet | SD | 50 | -8 |
| 59 | Jon Gray | COL | 54 | -5 |
| 60 | Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 48 | -12 |
| 61 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 62 | 1 |
| 62 | Homer Bailey | MIN | 65 | 3 |
| 63 | Alex Wood | LAD | 127 | 64 |
| 64 | Jose Urquidy | HOU | 56 | -8 |
| 65 | Steven Matz | NYM | 72 | 7 |
| 66 | Andrew Heaney | LAA | 60 | -6 |
| 67 | Ryan Yarbrough | TB | 67 | 0 |
| 68 | Marcus Stroman | NYM | 63 | -5 |
| 69 | Dylan Cease | CWS | 71 | 2 |
| 70 | Rich Hill | MIN | 64 | -6 |
| 71 | Dylan Bundy | LAA | 61 | -10 |
| 72 | Kyle Gibson | TEX | 69 | -3 |
| 73 | Pablo López | MIA | 75 | 2 |
| 74 | Sean Manaea | OAK | 58 | -16 |
| 75 | Adrian Houser | MIL | 73 | -2 |
| 76 | Caleb Smith | MIA | 68 | -8 |
| 77 | Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 | MIL | 78 | 1 |
| 78 | Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 57 | -21 |
| 79 | John Means | BAL | 93 | 14 |
| 80 | Spencer Turnbull | DET | 80 | 0 |
| 81 | Miles Mikolas | STL | 92 | 11 |
| 82 | Joey Lucchesi | SD | 77 | -5 |
| 83 | Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 88 | 5 |
| 84 | Yonny Chirinos | TB | 66 | -18 |
| 85 | Jordan Lyles | TEX | 70 | -15 |
| 86 | Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 91 | 5 |
| 87 | Wade Miley | CIN | 83 | -4 |
| 88 | Reynaldo López | CWS | 84 | -4 |
| 89 | Marco Gonzales | SEA | 87 | -2 |
| 90 | Austin Voth | WAS | 138 | 48 |
| 91 | Aníbal Sánchez | WAS | 94 | 3 |
| 92 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | 145 | 53 |
| 93 | Yusei Kikuchi | SEA | 102 | 9 |
| 94 | Jeff Samardzija | SF | 76 | -18 |
| 95 | Nate Pearson | TOR | 134 | 39 |
| 96 | Griffin Canning | LAA | 97 | 1 |
| 97 | Matt Shoemaker | TOR | 96 | -1 |
| 98 | Cole Hamels | ATL | 74 | -24 |
| 99 | Zach Plesac | CLE | 98 | -1 |
| 100 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | 118 | 18 |
| 101 | Spencer Howard | PHI | 158 | 57 |
| 102 | Zach Eflin | PHI | 100 | -2 |
| 103 | Danny Duffy | KC | 147 | 44 |
| 104 | Johnny Cueto | SF | 95 | -9 |
| 105 | Taijuan Walker | SEA | 120 | 15 |
| 106 | J.A. Happ | NYY | 104 | -2 |
| 107 | Alec Mills | CHC | N/A | N/A |
| 108 | Chris Bassitt | OAK | 116 | 8 |
| 109 | Tanner Roark | TOR | 105 | -4 |
| 110 | Dustin May | LAD | 107 | -3 |
| 111 | Derek Holland | PIT | N/A | N/A |
| 112 | Kwang Hyun Kim 김광현 | STL | 110 | -2 |
| 113 | Dallas Keuchel | CWS | 119 | 6 |
| 114 | Daniel Norris | DET | 90 | -24 |
| 115 | MacKenzie Gore | SD | 112 | -3 |
| 116 | Mike Fiers | OAK | 115 | -1 |
| 117 | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | ARI | 143 | 26 |
| 118 | Brad Peacock | HOU | 109 | -9 |
| 119 | Kyle Wright | ATL | 166 | 47 |
| 120 | Forrest Whitley | HOU | 111 | -9 |
| 121 | Jordan Yamamoto | MIA | 126 | 5 |
| 122 | Michael Fulmer | DET | 101 | -21 |
| 123 | Rick Porcello | NYM | 167 | 44 |
| 124 | Tyler Mahle | CIN | 142 | 18 |
| 125 | Chad Kuhl | PIT | N/A | N/A |
| 126 | Vince Velasquez | PHI | 113 | -13 |
| 127 | Brendan McKay | TB | 139 | 12 |
| 128 | Julio Teheran | LAA | 89 | -39 |
| 129 | Chase Anderson | TOR | 106 | -23 |
| 130 | Michael Wacha | NYM | 159 | 29 |
| 131 | Dakota Hudson | STL | 114 | -17 |
| 132 | Bryse Wilson | ATL | 169 | 37 |
| 133 | Kevin Gausman | SF | 123 | -10 |
| 134 | Alex Young | ARI | 144 | 10 |
| 135 | Jonathan Loaisiga | NYY | 129 | -6 |
| 136 | Jose Quintana | CHC | 99 | -37 |
| 137 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | 117 | -20 |
| 138 | Brady Singer | KC | N/A | N/A |
| 139 | Trent Thornton | TOR | N/A | N/A |
| 140 | Michael Pineda | MIN | 125 | -15 |
| 141 | Elieser Hernandez | MIA | N/A | N/A |
| 142 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | N/A | N/A |
| 143 | Brad Keller | KC | 133 | -10 |
| 144 | Carlos Rodón | CWS | N/A | N/A |
| 145 | Nick Pivetta | PHI | 108 | -37 |
| 146 | Jon Lester | CHC | 121 | -25 |
| 147 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | 131 | -16 |
| 148 | Casey Mize | DET | 136 | -12 |
| 149 | Jake Arrieta | PHI | 146 | -3 |
| 150 | Adam Wainwright | STL | N/A | N/A |
| 151 | Trevor Richards | TB | N/A | N/A |
| 152 | Drew Smyly | SF | 124 | -28 |
| 153 | Alex Cobb | BAL | N/A | N/A |
| 154 | Martín Pérez | BOS | 141 | -13 |
| 155 | Gio González | CWS | 128 | -27 |
| 156 | Félix Peña | LAA | 173 | 17 |
| 157 | Justus Sheffield | SEA | 156 | -1 |
| 158 | Logan Webb | SF | 155 | -3 |
| 159 | Collin McHugh | BOS | N/A | N/A |
| 160 | Randy Dobnak | MIN | 152 | -8 |
| 161 | Zach Davies | SD | 130 | -31 |
| 162 | Tarik Skubal | DET | 163 | 1 |
| 163 | Jaime Barria | LAA | N/A | N/A |
| 164 | Justin Dunn | SEA | 162 | -2 |
| 165 | Jorge López | KC | 157 | -8 |
| 166 | Matt Manning | DET | 135 | -31 |
| 167 | Deivi Garcia | NYY | 137 | -30 |
| 168 | Sixto Sanchez | MIA | 140 | -28 |
| 169 | Mike Montgomery | KC | 160 | -9 |
| 170 | Brusdar Graterol | LAD | 161 | -9 |
| 171 | Jakob Junis | KC | 148 | -23 |
| 172 | Eric Lauer | MIL | 149 | -23 |
| 173 | Brett Anderson | MIL | 150 | -23 |
| 174 | Sean Newcomb | ATL | 153 | -21 |
| 175 | Ian Anderson | ATL | 154 | -21 |
| 176 | Erick Fedde | WAS | N/A | N/A |
| 177 | Devin Smeltzer | MIN | 165 | -12 |
| 178 | Matt Andriese | LAA | N/A | N/A |
| 179 | Daniel Ponce de Leon | STL | 168 | -11 |
| 180 | Iván Nova | DET | 171 | -9 |
| 181 | Mitchell White | LAD | 172 | -9 |
Hi Paul, thanks for the deep list! Why is Carrasco up so much despite being an at-risk player? I’m just worried that he will have to check out at some point in the season. What has Eovaldi done to jump so much? And what’s up with RHill? Most people seem to love him but you edged him down…and even a little *behind* Matz and Bailey.
He was only down on concern of an opt-out. He has opted in so moved back to where he belongs, IMO. Eovaldi’s healthy & pitching.
Hill barely moved down. He’s 40 with a godawful injury profile. I can’t imagine loving him in a season like this. I’m not against drafting him, but having any confidence in him is tough.
Gotcha – thx! I’ve been caught up in the “Hill is healthy” mania but certainly see the risk that A) he isn’t REALLY ok, or B) elbow blows out at any time.
He’s a massive hassle in normal seasons so throw a bunch of extra volatility and I’m not super psyched to go for him. I acknowledge he’s very good on a per inning basis and I love getting guys in that Central, but I’m playing it a bit cautiously with Hill
Doesn’t volatility go both ways? I feel that Hill’s type of volatility – that he is dominant, but can’t be relied on for 150 innings – could work in his favor in this case. Similar to his former teammate Ryu.
Ya it goes both ways, but we’ve seen both ways with him. I’m accounting for it in my ranking. I mean, he’s 40 with terrible health, there really isn’t much positive volatility with that. He’s good per inning, has been for years.
Where do you put Framber Valdez now that it looks like he will be the #5 for the Astros?
See, I knew I’d forget SOMEONE. Probably early 100s for Valdez.
Right on. Thanks.
Surprised Corbin fell
It was just others going up that pushed him down, still love him.
Luzardo is back in camp with two negative tests under his belt, probably didn’t even lose much ground prepping for the season.
Yes, he’ll probably be healthy enough to go 3 or 4 innings for the first few times through the rotation. He already has issues with innings count and that’s been made worse by having a couple extra week delay. I’d put a 1.5 O/U on how many games he pitches into the 6th inning this year.
Hey Paul! Great rankings, as always. Why did Garrett Richards jump so much? There hasn’t been any news on him, right?
Was just playing it a little cautiously until we fired back up, but now that we’re back playing and he’s looking healthy, I’m looking at him as someone who could go off. I’ve always been a fan and it’s never been about talent. He’s still an injury risk, but he has the talent to even beat this ranking if he does in fact stay healthy
Hey Paul are you nervous about Snell being babied too much this year? I’m falling off the Gallen wagon for the same reason.
The list is amazing! 181!
Maybe you write a “comments post”, but if not….
Glassnow drop?
If Pearson starts game 7 and does something like 5IP, 1 er, 7k, where does he jump to?
Corona + standard TB babying
The second Pearson is up, he jumps 25-30 spots off rip.
I think 50-90 is just one giant tier. Do you think otherwise? As an extreme example, I can see someone preferring Reynaldo to Eovaldi.
No, I can see it. I call it The Glob. I only put one tier break in there sorta denoting a confidence drop but ya the gap is slim
‘List expanded to 181′
MARINERS LEVEL UNLOCKED! ! !
Was actually a little shocked to see two M’s hanging out at the bottom of the top #100
This is our year. I mean 2020 as a whole. This is a Mariners’ year. now y’all know what it’s like.
PS…you think Julio Rodriguez gets a taste of the majors this year?
In all seriousness I have a hunch K. Graveman ends up higher than he’s ranked. He’s been showing some things.
Rodriguez broke his wrist the other day, so no
nah you must be thinking of last year, ….he broke his hand last year
No, Julio Rodriguez literally just broke his wrist the other day. Hairline fracture
nah…you must be thinking of last year…..last year…(cradled in a corner rocking and muttering ) we……can….have..good…… things
Mitchell White was quite unnecessary.
Interesting Top 5 order, no Cole numero uno? Thanks Paul!
Civale is not sooo fetch. Stop trying to make him a thing. Cease too.
Well with such a well outlined case like that, I guess I’ll just have to listen to you lol….
That’s just mean, girl
Such a well put together list and encouraging of looking up guys yourself and seeing what you like.
All I’m asking of Darvish is for a Schilling-esque ages 34+
Good luck with that, seeing as he hasn’t been anywhere near that good over a full season since joining the Cubs. You should be happy if he even manages to be an average starter at ages 34+.
Its good to see Matthew Boyd moving up, I think he’s going to be a steal for somebody. The past couple years he has been solid in the first half before fading down the stretch, with the shorten season that shouldn’t be an issue this year. Plus it looks like his velo is up vs. last year, he was hitting 96 on the stadium gun the other day where has last year he would top out at 93-94.
Thank you for the update. I’m hoping to see Kershaw return to the top tier. The signs are positive: he’s injury free, his velocity has rebounded some and, if the recent Roberts quotes are accurate, he’s mixing in a change-up. But Buehler not being ready just yet worries me.
Love Kersh. I’ll gladly take him as my fantasy ace in any format.
He fools around with a changeup at the start ofevery season; he’s been doing it for a decade. Maybe it’s different now, and the rest of his stuff has finally declined to the point where he has convinced himself to prioritize it. Maybe 2019 was bad enough for him, by his standards, to develop and trust it. But it’s just as likely (based on the past 10 seasons, more likely) he does well with his regular repertoire in the early days of this season (velo is up, who needs the slow stuff?) and he lets it drop once again.
Where do you rank Carlos Martinez now that he’s confirmed to open the season in the starting rotation?
Wish they were separable by league for us ‘one league only’ers’ ..