Archive for Starting Pitchers

There’s not a whole lot that we could evaluate after just one pitcher start. However, one of the few things we could analyze and take action on is fastball velocity. Typically pitchers see their average fastball velocity gradually increase as the season progresses, so it’s completely normal if a pitcher is down a tick from last year, as you figure it will improve moving forward. On the other hand, since average fastball velocity immediately means something, it’s worth noting when a pitcher is already enjoying a significant bump. So let’s take a look at all the starters whose average fastball velocity in their first start has increased by at least 1.5 MPH versus 2020.

Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is happening! Watching baseball again is quite possibly the best feeling in the world. Better than getting married and I can say that because my wife doesn’t read any of my stuff…. can’t say I blame her. I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I compared starting pitcher spring training strikeout rates to Steamer projected strikeout rates to assemble a list of pitchers with potential strikeout rate upside this season. Today, let’s do the same with walk rate.

Read the rest of this entry »

Pitching can be the spot of our lineups where we experience the lowest degree of variance in a sport full of volatility. We’re not going to explore how to minimize variance, but how to make the best plays tailored for our lineups to fit the contests we’re playing using projections and leverage.

A lot of things factor into a pitcher scoring fantasy points via strikeouts, innings, and run prevention. A pitcher’s skill is pretty important, but what’s the best way to gauge a pitcher’s skill? The answer is mostly through the predictive analytics of their past performance, which ought to be distinguished from the descriptive analytics.

Projection

We get fantasy points for outs, Ks, and Ws (on FD, we also get the points for the QS); it’s that simple. We lose points for ER on both sites, baserunners on DK. Keep it simple. Find a predictive run prevention metric between xERA, FIP, xFIP, or SIERA. Decide between the per-nine rates or per-100 batter-faced stats like K/9 versus K%. I prefer xERA, based on the Statcast numbers, or SIERA, as they isolate that over which the pitcher has the most control. I prefer K/9 because K% can double-count for events already recognized in the run preventers, as we’re really just looking to project Ks with that metric.

Read the rest of this entry »

We know by now that spring training stats are almost completely meaningless. So stop looking at batting averages and ERAs and using those marks to drive draft day decisions! However, there are some metrics that do matter, pitcher strikeout and walk rates, which I discovered from a study I had conducted. So it follows that pitchers who posted significantly higher strikeout rates and/or significantly lower walk rates, and vice versa, than projected should get slight bumps (or the opposite) in their season projections.

Read the rest of this entry »

This weekend is the last big push of drafts so it’s time for one final update of my SP ranks. Lots of movement as it’s time to lock in and put together our rotations.

The blue bar represents the START of a new tier. Yes, deGrom is his own tier.

You can also get up to the minute rankings of every position on our Patreon.

UPDATE(S):

• I didn’t adjust Carrasco for his groin issue, so I put him at 102.5 right now because I’m not able to update the table right now and he’s going to slot in after Thor, but I wanted to note Carrasco’s drop. Thanks to Mike from Twitter for catching that.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday, I shared the names of eight pitchers whose Pod Projected ERA is significantly lower than Steamer. Today, let’s flip to the ERA downside names. Remember that in aggregate, Pod ERA projections are lower than Steamer, so the gap between ERA forecasts below are a lot smaller than on the upside list. Since it’s really relative projections and calculated dollar values that matter (we care how the projections compare to the player pool, not whether the pitcher is projected for a 3.00 ERA vs a 14.00 ERA), try to ignore the small degree Pod’s ERA is higher than Steamer and remember these are the largest outliers, so if put on the same ERA scale, the difference would be greater.

Read the rest of this entry »

When grabbing pitchers and hitters towards the end game of the draft it makes complete sense to grab players who start off with an easy schedule. Based on the Main Event format where 450 players are taken overall so we will stick with pitchers who are in the 400 range. Below are some pitchers who are decent additions to start the season due to their matchups. Just make sure not to hold on for too long where they can burn you.

Alec Mills, CHC 432 ADP 

Projected starts: vs PIT, @PIT, @MIL 

I was crazy enough to make a bold prediction that Mills would be the SP1 for the Cubs in 2021 so how could I not mention him here? Mills is known for being deceptive and seems to possess our brand new shiny toy called seam-shifted wake. He holds a deep arsenal where he prefers to lean heavily on his sinker and four-seam fastball. His pitches provide a ton of movement especially his changeup and slider (throw them more Mills!). Overall the late price could be seen as perceived value. 

Read the rest of this entry »

This week, I finish up the Pod vs Steamer series that pits my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections. Today, we move on to pitchers, where I’ll compare the ERA forecasts from each of the systems and identify those pitchers I am projecting for significantly better ERA marks. Though Steamer is the best pitching projection system out there, it struggles on pitchers that have shown consistent BABIP and HR/FB rate suppression skills and deficiencies, as what usually works for the majority of pitchers — projecting a heavy dose of regression to the MLB mean — means it misses on those uncommon exceptions. I use Statcast’s xBABIP now for my projections, so I’m not afraid to forecast a mark that strays from the league average. However, I certainly still include some regression as we don’t always have enough batted balls in a pitcher’s history for that mark to stabilize.

Read the rest of this entry »

Drafts are in full swing and now I am 15+ drafts into the season, here are my current ranks for the starting pitcher position for 2021. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.

See my other ranks here: C 1B 2B SS 3B OF SP RP
Read the rest of this entry »