Let’s talk about the best prospect fastballs! These are the 9 pitchers with at least a 70 grade FB – Present (FBP) and 50 or higher FV grade for those with a 70 grade FBP.

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While I had little luck finding the next Lucas Giolito, he still intrigued me. He was possibly the worst major league starter in 2018 (6.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 173 IP). Last season, he remade himself by throwing harder (avg FBv from 92.4 mph to 94.3 mph), throwing more strikes (4.7 BB/9 to 2.90 BB/9), and reworking his pitch mix (dropped the sinker and curve).

The problem is that standard projection systems still incorporate the previous three or more results which hurt his projection. Our auction calculator (Steamer) ranks him as the 45th pitcher while he’s going as the 14th pitcher in the NFBC. Fantasy owners knew to reset his projection but to what? I decided to create a projection system called the GM (Giolito – Marte) based only on the previous season results. Nothing more.
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The last of the Finding Giolito series comes to pause. I couldn’t find any footage on Logan Webb and the Manaea video was crap. That said, the Garrett Richards looked great.

Garrett Richards (Padres, RHP)

Games

• 3/3/20
• 3/9/20

Notes

• Pitches straight ahead attacking the plate.
• The slider has a curveball shape but in the low 90’s.
• He never controlled the curve in either game. He was just giving away those pitches.
• In the third inning of the 3/9 game, he lost control of everything. He might have tried throwing his change since he bounced a couple pithces way in front of the plate.
• While the broadcast talked of the changeup, I didn’t notice him throwing one else it was one of the pitches he bounced.

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Sadly, the NFBC team building fun comes to a close. To go along with my splendid $14 offense, I attempted to assemble a $246 pitching staff using NFBC average auction values from March 15 and on. Just as I failed to spend all my money when buying a dominant offense, I left a buck on the table here as well, only spending $245. Let’s see what such an insane staff looks like.

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Last week I started a series on finding the potential Spring Training breakouts based on increased velocity and a possible new pitch. I planned on going in-depth on a couple of guys but found no game footage for Nick Pivetta, Danny Duffy, and John Means. Instead, I pivoted to Alec Mills.

Alec Mills

Improvements

• Fastball velo up 0.8 mph.
• New two-seam grip.

Games watched

• 2/26/20: 2 IP, Best game to watch. Good camera angle and pitch velos.
• 3/7/20: 3.2 IP, Horrible camera angle.
• 3/11/20: 1 IP

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I’m continuing my quest to find the next Lucas Giolito breakout and failed with these two. They both were to be adding slider and some added velocity.

Tyle Mahle: Reds right-handed pitcher

Games

• 2/29/20
• 3/5/20

Notes:

• Some rise on the fastball but it’s really straight (95 and 97 mph from broadcast on two pitches).
• The curve was inconsistent and he hung a few.
• Just didn’t throw a put-away pitch in the second game.
• He had no feel for the splitter at all in the 3/5 game. It was better in the 2/29 game.
• I wasn’t sure what he was doing. He might not of known either.

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Yesterday, I assembled a 14-player offense from the hitters who weren’t bought in NFBC auctions since March 15. Today, let’s flip over to the pitching side.

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I don’t know how many times I’ve been asked this offseason, “Who is this season’s Giolito?” So I’m supposed to know of a pitcher who was completely useless the previous season but is going to throw harder, find the strike zone, and rework his repertoire. Yea … I wish. But we can start diving in and I’ve found 10 arms who may pull it off.

The elusive list of 10 pitchers came taking anyone on Jason Collette’s New Pitch Tracker with anyone who saw a velocity increase in the first Spring Training. Initially, 12 pitchers made cut.

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Note: I’d like to grade out both of their pitches more but the camera angles where sh …. not good.

Kwang Hyun Kim

LHP on the Cardinals

Games watched

• Feb 22: 1 IP (in rain with ump covering the catcher’s glove)
• Mar 9: 3 IP

Projections and comps from earlier this offseason.

The projected talent should play with comparable projected pitchers being Jesus Luzardo (3.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), Sonny Gray (3.91, 1.30), and Carlos Martinez (3.97, 1.33).

One game that was not on MLB.tv had StatCast velocity readings and here are his pitch velocities.

• Fastball: 90-93
• Slider (Change): 83-86
• Curve: 69-71
• Cutter: 88- 89
• Split: 77-78

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In my previous post, I looked at the hitting landscape for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) drafts. I also analyzed my own personal team from league #14, which was dubbed as the “league of death.”

Onto the pitching …

General Observations

Starting Pitchers

Let’s first compare starting pitcher ADPs from the past two seasons of TGFBI.

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