Ottoneu Top 100 Starting Pitchers for 2020
Using a format similar to the one Justin Mason recently posted for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 100 Starting Pitchers for Ottoneu fantasy baseball. Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed). You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards today’s keeper deadline for all leagues.
Previous 2020 Ottoneu rankings:
Since a majority of Ottoneu leagues are points leagues (pitching based on linear weights), WHIP and Wins are less of a factor here than in traditional rotisserie rankings. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, this list might be a good proxy for sabermetric leagues, so keep that context in mind as you review. “P/IP” represents the projected points per innings pitched from Steamer projections and their estimated innings total.
If I’ve missed an important player, or you believe I’ve wildly over or under-valued someone, please let me know in the comments and I’ll be sure to update.
| Rank | Player | POS | Steamer IP | P/IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | SP | 205 | 5.64 |
| 2 | Gerrit Cole | SP | 202 | 5.64 |
| 3 | Max Scherzer | SP | 202 | 5.59 |
| 4 | Justin Verlander | SP | 204 | 5.28 |
| 5 | Stephen Strasburg | SP | 200 | 4.98 |
| 6 | Walker Buehler | SP | 194 | 5.07 |
| 7 | Blake Snell | SP | 179 | 5.16 |
| 8 | Charlie Morton | SP | 192 | 5.06 |
| 9 | Mike Clevinger | SP | 197 | 4.92 |
| 10 | Shane Bieber | SP | 198 | 4.81 |
| 11 | Jack Flaherty | SP | 192 | 4.94 |
| 12 | Patrick Corbin | SP | 192 | 4.88 |
| 13 | Luis Castillo | SP | 190 | 4.66 |
| 14 | Lucas Giolito | SP | 191 | 4.24 |
| 15 | Noah Syndergaard | SP | 195 | 4.68 |
| 16 | Chris Sale | SP | 177 | 5.68 |
| 17 | Yu Darvish | SP | 185 | 4.89 |
| 18 | Tyler Glasnow | SP | 163 | 5.02 |
| 19 | Luis Severino | RP | 168 | 4.40 |
| 20 | Clayton Kershaw | SP | 202 | 4.68 |
| 21 | Lance Lynn | SP | 192 | 4.37 |
| 22 | Aaron Nola | SP | 198 | 4.65 |
| 23 | Chris Paddack | SP | 166 | 4.53 |
| 24 | Shohei Ohtani | Util/SP | 110 | 4.88 |
| 25 | Mike Soroka | SP | 189 | 4.11 |
| 26 | Brandon Woodruff | SP | 183 | 4.47 |
| 27 | Sonny Gray | SP | 175 | 4.50 |
| 28 | Zack Wheeler | SP | 189 | 4.19 |
| 29 | Carlos Carrasco | SP/RP | 173 | 4.60 |
| 30 | Zack Greinke | SP | 199 | 3.85 |
| 31 | James Paxton | SP | 183 | 4.58 |
| 32 | Max Fried | SP | 172 | 4.67 |
| 33 | Corey Kluber | SP | 187 | 4.13 |
| 34 | Trevor Bauer | SP | 200 | 4.69 |
| 35 | Jose Berrios | SP | 198 | 3.85 |
| 36 | Zac Gallen | SP | 145 | 4.33 |
| 37 | Jake Odorizzi | SP | 172 | 3.73 |
| 38 | German Marquez | SP | 187 | 4.32 |
| 39 | Frankie Montas | SP | 186 | 4.15 |
| 40 | Dinelson Lamet | SP | 162 | 4.91 |
| 41 | Marcus Stroman | SP | 179 | 4.25 |
| 42 | David Price | SP | 164 | 4.17 |
| 43 | Eduardo Rodriguez | SP | 193 | 4.16 |
| 44 | Robbie Ray | SP | 174 | 4.45 |
| 45 | Madison Bumgarner | SP | 199 | 3.83 |
| 46 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | SP | 186 | 3.90 |
| 47 | Mike Minor | SP | 201 | 3.54 |
| 48 | Lance McCullers Jr. | RP | 156 | 4.64 |
| 49 | Andrew Heaney | SP | 168 | 4.35 |
| 50 | Dustin May | SP/RP | 107 | 4.10 |
| 51 | Jesus Luzardo | SP/RP | 149 | 4.28 |
| 52 | Joe Musgrove | SP | 179 | 4.03 |
| 53 | Matthew Boyd | SP | 183 | 4.10 |
| 54 | Chris Archer | SP | 180 | 4.31 |
| 55 | Carlos Martinez | RP | 78 | 4.49 |
| 56 | A.J. Puk | SP/RP | 117 | 4.16 |
| 57 | Kenta Maeda | SP/RP | 130 | 4.40 |
| 58 | Luke Weaver | SP | 134 | 4.16 |
| 59 | Julio Urias | SP/RP | 139 | 4.28 |
| 63 | Garrett Richards | SP/RP | 165 | 4.44 |
| 60 | Jon Gray | SP | 186 | 4.15 |
| 61 | Mitch Keller | SP | 140 | 4.39 |
| 62 | Masahiro Tanaka | SP | 180 | 3.45 |
| 64 | Sean Manaea | SP | 162 | 3.50 |
| 65 | Griffin Canning | SP | 135 | 4.01 |
| 66 | Miles Mikolas | SP | 192 | 3.92 |
| 67 | Joey Lucchesi | SP | 185 | 3.86 |
| 68 | Cole Hamels | SP | 164 | 4.11 |
| 69 | Steven Matz | SP | 159 | 3.90 |
| 70 | Jose Quintana | SP | 177 | 3.80 |
| 71 | Dallas Keuchel | SP | 197 | 3.48 |
| 72 | Jose Urquidy | SP | 168 | 3.76 |
| 73 | Michael Kopech | RP | 91 | 3.71 |
| 74 | Caleb Smith | SP | 179 | 3.71 |
| 75 | Anthony DeSclafani | SP | 153 | 3.84 |
| 76 | Spencer Turnbull | SP | 139 | 3.68 |
| 77 | Ross Stripling | SP/RP | 80 | 4.53 |
| 78 | Kyle Gibson | SP/RP | 174 | 3.70 |
| 79 | Sandy Alcantara | SP | 188 | 3.37 |
| 80 | Aaron Civale | SP | 148 | 3.16 |
| 81 | MacKenzie Gore | SP | 18 | 3.84 |
| 82 | Brendan McKay | SP | 87 | 4.39 |
| 83 | Yonny Chirinos | SP/RP | 130 | 3.78 |
| 84 | Mike Foltynewicz | SP | 181 | 3.45 |
| 85 | Dylan Bundy | SP | 178 | 3.79 |
| 86 | Kevin Gausman | SP/RP | 155 | 4.19 |
| 87 | Johnny Cueto | SP/RP | 182 | 3.96 |
| 88 | Matt Shoemaker | SP | 136 | 3.16 |
| 89 | Tyler Beede | SP | 73 | 4.05 |
| 90 | Adrian Houser | SP/RP | 155 | 3.85 |
| 91 | Pablo Lopez | SP | 157 | 4.00 |
| 92 | Chris Bassitt | SP | 129 | 3.93 |
| 93 | Nathan Eovaldi | SP/RP | 148 | 4.05 |
| 94 | Nate Pearson | SP | 1 | 6.80 |
| 95 | Dylan Cease | SP | 108 | 3.75 |
| 96 | Mike Fiers | SP | 188 | 2.82 |
| 97 | Brad Keller | SP | 182 | 3.35 |
| 98 | Kyle Wright | SP/RP | 46 | 4.10 |
| 99 | Wade Miley | SP | 147 | 3.59 |
| 100 | Kyle Hendricks | SP | 179 | 3.81 |
Trey is a 20+ year fantasy veteran and an early adopter of Ottoneu fantasy sports. He currently administers the Ottoneu community, a network of ~1,200 fantasy baseball and football fans talking sports daily. More resources here: http://community.ottoneu.com
Good to see that Nate Pearson will get one monster inning!
Somewhere Kyle Hendricks is wondering if he should even suit up at all if some kid can best his 179 innings with just that monster inning.
Glad to see Hendricks at 100. Not going to be popular on here, but I see it that way as well.
Too low on Greinke and Bumgarner. Have either of these guys ever had a full season with a FIP above 4.00?
Very possible they could be higher, but check out the Steamer P/IP projections, so it’s not just me. However, Steamer does seem a bit harsh on both.
I feel like dividing by projected IP gives the IP projections too much credit for precision. The rate metrics are much more reliable than how much playing time health & circumstances will allow. So I tend to pay more attention to the projected rate stats.
I think it makes sense to mentally factor in the innings only in a broader sense, sort of like broad tiers of likely outcomes out of respect for the huge margin of error… Some guys are likely to be 175-200 IP (a lot/great), others are more likely 150-175 (decent/useful), some are projected below that (risk/reward now comes into play), etc. I just can’t act like it’s meaningful that de Grom projects for 3 more IP than Cole, for example.
The raw IP projections are just for context. Agree the P/IP is more useful, but again, it’s not everything. I like Giolito better than Nola, for example, despite the P/IP difference. However, raw innings do matter. I’d rather have Thor than Glasnow just because Thor is more likely to throw 200 IP, despite the lower P/IP assumption.
Also – Despite my math quibble above, I have very little to argue with in the list you ended up with. After having done about 50 best ball points drafts so far this winter, they are pretty close to my own ranks give or take a few small nudges. I try not to become fully untethered from the projections but everybody has their favorites, which is what makes it fun.
Bungarner’s FIP hasn’t been over 4.00 since his cup of coffee in 2009. However, he has clearly slipped the last 3 years and his FIP has been between 3.90 and 3.99 with his xFIP higher than that between 4.07 and 4.32. What worries me (as a DBacks fan as much as fantasy) is that he has been hiding behind his home park’s HR-crushing dimensions a little bit. His road ERA the last 2 years has been 4.97 and 5.29. Interesting stat : only 15 of his 34 starts were on the road last year meaning 19 starts at one of the best pitching parks in baseball and the very best HR park. Only 85.0 of his 207.2 IP last year were on the road.
AS for Greinke, he was over 4.00 his 1st 3 years and then again in 2016. I’m not saying it’s this year, but at some point the continual slide in velo is going to catch up to him.
I agree on Greinke. I’m afraid of a Jered Weaver-esque drop in 2014 to 2015 when he lost 3 more MPH and was basically finished as useful.
I would not count on Bumgarner for anything. He is not in San Fran anymore, he is starting to age and his velocity has dipped.
Kyle Hendricks at #100 seems criminally low. The dude wakes up and pisses solid ERAs and low WHIPs on an annual basis. Seems like 50-60 range to me — curious to hear the logic on his current rankings. In any case, thanks for putting these together!
On second look I think there’s a case to move Hendricks up into the ~75 range possibly. But keep in mind these aren’t roto rankings, so WHIP and ERA matters less than FIP (for example) and HR/9, which might be better rate indicators. The gap between SP at ~65 and 100 is really small and muddied IMO.
Thanks Trey — my fault for not realizing it wasn’t roto. Agreed on 75ish range in that case, FWIW.
He should probably get that looked at.
FG Points Pitching Scoring Categories:
IP: 7.4
K: 2.0
H: -2.6
BB: -3.0
HBP: -3.0
HR: -12.3
SV: 5.0
HOLDS: 4.0
Why are BB more harmful than hits? Wouldn’t a pitcher always rather give up a one-base walk than a at-least-one-base-hit?
I believe the logic is walk is more in the pitcher’s control. It takes 4 “bad” pitches for a walk, but only one for a hit. Something like that.
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/how-hitting-is-scored-in-ottoneu-fangraphs-points-leagues/
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/how-pitching-is-scored-in-ottoneu-fangraphs-points-leagues/
Includes the A’s top 6 starters: Montas, Luzardo, Puk, Manaea, Bassitt, Fiers.
A’s are my pick to win the World Series this year. I really like that team.
So, if Sale doesnt miss more than a couple starts hes actually #1?
Steamer thinks Sale is the best SP on a per inning basis, but you can see his ranking here factors in some recent injury risk.
Who would be a few honorable mentions and where would Lindblom, Kim, and Yamaguchi rank?
Considering how poorly Kikuchi adjusted last year I did not have Lindblom, Kim, and Yamaguchi in the top ~120. Just about anyone could pop up into the top 100, but guys who just missed or were at least considered include S. Newcomb, Porcello, Pineda, Danny Duffy. If I thought Mize, Manning, or S. Howard would make their debut this year, I’d put them on the back end of this list. Tony Gonsolin could be a guy to gain value, but always hard to know how LAD will deploy their rotation. Stripling could be way too high or way too low here.
How far off your list is Jordan Montgomery, assuming he begins the season as the Yankees #5 SP. Where would he be if we assumed he stays healthy and starts all year?
Don’t think Montgomery is a guy to speculate on at this stage but it’s possible he could push Happ or Loaisiga for a few starts early.
Are you concerned long-term about Nola’s single season HR problems? He was a consensus top-10 arm going into last year. I’d be more inclined to go back to the well on Nola than to go after a guy with years of arm troubles who had one fantastic season (Giolito)
I think it’s fairly clear now that Giolito’s upside is great than Nola’s, and since Giolito also pitches in the ALC, he gets the nod. Nola had one of the most inconsistent month to month seasons of any top SP last year. I expect he will iron some of those issues out, and I do think he gets some value for banking ~200 IP.
What are your thoughts on Jordan Yamamoto? He seems like he is being way under appreciated by the projections. Currently slated as Miami’s #3 SP on the depth charts, he is only projected for 135 IPs. He had 9.38 K/9 in the majors, yet his projection of 8.49 K/9 is lower than every stop except his 2015 Rookie League time. He also had 1.26 HR/9 and a WHIP of 1.14 in the majors (both well below league average), yet his projections of 1.38 HR/9 and 1.40 WHIP are by far worse than any stop except (again) his 2015 Rookie League time. While his FA averaged only 91.8 mph last season, it had a very good pval. He has a deep repertoire with three of his five other pitches (FC, CH and SL) also having positive pvals last season. Although his 2019 BB/9 in AAA and MLB were a bit high, previous years in MiLB were stellar. The composite seems to indicate he has very good command of most of his pitches. I can’t help but wonder if he is getting significantly knocked primarily because of his FB velocity even though his peripherals look very promising. Maybe a good sleeper candidate?
The entire Marlins rotation is probably underrated, so you have to think there could be some good sleepers there (they’ve lost some helium from this time last year). Yamamoto could easily sneak into this top 100, but I think his value hinges on keeping the ball in the ballpark (as it does with a lot of guys on the back of this list).
He’s not going to have a .225 BABIP again, though. If he can get the GB rate and the walks back to where they were (though that was the low minors), then he could have a strong season. Otherwise, he’s like a ton of other guys once the BABIP creeps back up.
Trey (or anyone familiar with Ottoneu FPTS really), what do you think, keep or cut Ross Stripling at $8?
I would cut…just don’t think he has a role in the rotation at this stage.