Ranking Five Tier 2 Starting Pitchers
Depending on league type and tendencies, there is a group of five pitchers who I have a problem differentiating their value. They are Chris Sale, Mike Clevinger, Jack Flaherty, Stephen Strasburg, and Shane Bieber. While the ideal spot would be to take the last of this group, not every owner will have that option. There will be instances where if an owner passes on one of this group, none will make it back to their next pick. I needed to dig in a bit to differentiate them.
The first elephants in the room to deal with are Walker Buehler and Blake Snell. I went through the following analysis and Beuhler came out a bit ahead of the ground and Snell a bit behind. I completely understand if someone wants to include them. All these pitchers are close but currently, they are easier for me to rank. I’m sure someone can’t wait to write a small essay in the comments on why I’m wrong. I can’t wait to ignore it.
The second elephant in the room is Sale. He struggled last season, but if he returns to form from just two years ago, he has the potential to be the #1 overall player. I’m not sure the other four have that level of upside. He seems like a high variance play.
To differentiate pitchers, I usually compare projected production and past health. Here’s a comparison with Depth Chart projections and previous major league playing time.
| Name | ERA | pERA | K/9 | BB/9 | ADP | GS (3-years) | IP (3Y) | Injury from past three seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clevinger | 3.34 | 3.01 | 10.96 | 3.07 | 23 | 74 | 447 | Strained back and ankle |
| Flaherty | 3.37 | 3.28 | 10.51 | 2.71 | 24 | 66 | 368 | none |
| Bieber | 3.57 | 2.92 | 10.06 | 1.73 | 28 | 52 | 329 | none |
| Strasburg | 3.43 | 3.09 | 10.49 | 2.51 | 29 | 83 | 514 | Elbow nerve impingment, shoulder inflammation |
| Sale | 3.34 | 3.14 | 12.42 | 2.14 | 37 | 84 | 519 | Inflammed shoulder (twice), inflamed elbow |
Usually, I use pERA as a tie-breaker, but the range is from 2.92 to 3.28. The projected ERA’s are closer from 3.34 to 3.57. Sale stands out with the higher strikeout rate but the injuries, both elbow and shoulder, are concerning. The pitcher who sticks out is Strasburg. A checkered injury history with equivalent talent to the non-Sale pitchers. He falls to last for me.
How about another table? It’s coming anyway. The additions are fastball velocity and usage, groundball rate, and the 2019 second-half K%-BB% rate The one is used to see if a pitcher is riding into the season with any momentum. I’m not big of second-half stats but in this instance, there needs to be a tie-breaker.
Also, once someone differentiates themselves after an analysis, I’m not going back to them. Strasburg’s last and will stay that way even though some stats may appear better than the others.
| Rank | Name | FB Velo | FB% | 2H K%-BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1t | Clevinger | 95.5 | 51% | 25% | 41% |
| 1t | Flaherty | 93.9 | 58% | 28% | 40% |
| 1t | Bieber | 93.1 | 46% | 29% | 44% |
| 1t | Sale | 93.2 | 46% | 32% | 43% |
| 5 | Strasburg | 93.9 | 48% | 30% | 51% |
The one who moves to fourth is Flaherty. He’s got limited upside with just the two pitches and an owner can just wait for Patrick Corbin. Also, I’m going to take Clevinger over Bieber. Clevinger has more fastball velocity to fall back on and can throw his breaking balls more … if the fastball falters.
So where does Sale fit into the mix? It really comes down to personal preference on rostering the high variance player. Personally, I’m all about high variance players as long as they come at a discount to their median range of outcomes. For me, I’d take him third after Clevinger and Bieber.
My final rankings are
- Mike Clevinger
- Shane Bieber
- Chris Sale (Anywhere from #1 to #4, personal variance tolerance)
- Jack Flaherty
- Stephen Strasburg
I can’t wait to read how I’m wrong. Fire away.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Can’t find anything really wrong at all. Honestly, just glad to get any of those guys in a draft so no matter how they’re ranked I’ll take any of ’em.
I wouldn’t touch Sale at the prices he is going at. Way, way too much risk with his come and go velocity, let someone else have that headache.
Im out on Stras simply due to post season workload and the new contract
There was an article, possibly from Jeff, that showed that the additional postseason workload had no impact on the pitcher’s ability to pitch a full, successful following season.
Considering Strasburg’s past injury history on an individual basis, I’m not sure it’s a risk I’m willing to take, but I think it’s less of a reason for someone to fade him than one would think.
I think I’d go to pretty great lengths to avoid this group at these prices — the track records are just too short and too spotty, and I don’t want to pay for Flaherty repeating his babip and strand rates.
I agree that they’re pretty close which makes this makes an interesting exercise, but I’ll be paying up for Buehler, or grabbing Snell afterwards.
im all in at snell around 40 or so.
i’d take stras over flaherty for sure. Stras stopped throwing the slider and now relies on the curve/change combo to strike guys out as his velocity slips. I think he could repeat similar rate stats, although 200+ innings again is unlikely imo.
i wont even rank sale atm due to how much it’ll change between now and opening day.
All these guys are good. Sale is the best but you gotta worry about the innings. I think of these guys I’m willing to take on that variance with Sale because we are probably underestimating the variance on the other (non-Strasburg) guys.
the thing with Sale was when he was facing bad teams he dominated them. But when he faced good teams- they absolutely torched him . 3.36 ERA vs bad teams 5.84 vs winning teams last year. 2018 1.64 vs 2.88. 2017 2.31 vs 4.64.
Where Sale is being drafted, you are taking a huge ton of risk… Sale you can’t just say if he throws innings he’s going to be great. That’s what FG said in 2019 about him, and he was awful.
Sale represents both the biggest potential upside and the biggest risk. If healthy, I’d love to have him, but his Aug/Sept performance has faltered for years. If I had to bet, I’d say he goes under the knife before the All-Star break. Therefore, I’m going to stay away. Reluctantly. Knowing full well that if I’m wrong, it could cost me winning my league. BTW, Luis Severino is a very similar call. Both boil down to your tolerance for risk. Heck, throw Kluber into this pig-pile too.
Of the rest mentioned, I’m going Bieber, Strasburg, Clevinger, Flaherty, but you could throw a blanket over them all, they’re so close. Maybe I’ll consult a psychic.
Best case scenario, make good decisions ahead of having to decide between these five. Frankly, what you do will boil down to your draft position. MLB is in a huge pitching drought right now. Everything beyond #5 or #6 SP chosen will depend on luck.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Sale was the number one overall pitcher this season; it wouldn’t surprise me if he only throws 30 innings with a double digit ERA. I’ll let pitchers like that be someone else’s problem unless they’re lasting into the tenth round of the draft, which he won’t be.
Sale and his elbow fell behind all of these guys as well as snell castillo giolito and greinke in my first draft (15 team draft and hold league). Sale went in the early 4th round. Greinke was crazy, but otherwise, I think you will see Sale falling into the late third round (15 teams) pretty regularly.
I think your Sale mileage will vary greatly depending on league size. We ran a 14-team 1450 IP limit last year, and for the first time in years, most owners did not approach/hit the limit. We were desperate for starters. In a 10-12 team league or with a lower cap, I’m jumping on him due to better replacements. Otherwise it’s whichever of Clev/Bieber I’m getting at a good value.
I actually agree with you almost spot on.
I’ve gone back and forth ranking Buehler, Bieber, and Clevinger, and the most consistent one I feel the best about if Buehler. His arsenal is so deep, and so good, I can see him making the jump into the elite tier if he can figure out how to better use his Change and Curve.
Bieber and Clevinger, I’m convinced is just a matter of preference. Clevinger has the better 1-2 combo, but I think Bieber is more dependable to give you 200+ innings of great ratios. I know he got hit way too hard last year to perform with the ratios he did, but I don’t think he will take some cataclysmic fall because of it. I’m going Bieber.