1/26/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Chas McCormick gut feeling (3:36)
• Adam Ottavino to BOS (10:07)
• Cesar Hernandez back to CLE (15:02)

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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of six more starters. You can find the other editions here:

• Part 1: Houck, Akin, Dunn, Schmidt
• Part 2: Webb, Kremer, Stripling, Richards
• Part 3: Quintana, Minor, Hill, Peralta, Morejon
• Part 4: Margevicius, Chatwood, Plutko, Marquez, Lucchesi, Balazovic, Abbot
• Part 5: Lodolo, Castellani, Bailey, Chirinos, Rodon, Cody, Cobb, Hamels
• Part 6: Perez, Matz, Fiers, Porcello, Gray, Lynch
• Part 7: McClanahan, Jefferies, Sandoval, Lester, Voth, Velasquez
• Part 8: Barria, Loaisiga, Wood, DeSclafani, Freeland, Martin,
• Part 9: Wood (again), Dobnak, Suter, Archer, Senzatela, Brault, Whitley, Kelly
• Part 10: Wilson, Arihara, Wacha, Wright, Duffy, Mills
• Part 11: Manning, Pivetta, Bubic, Shoemaker, Brubaker, Gomber
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With the recognition now of how wins is a terrible statistic for starting pitchers a lot of leagues have moved to quality starts. Wins for a pitcher has very little to do with their ability. Sure they can put themselves in a position for a win but they are then reliant on both their offense and bullpen to achieve that win. Just take a look at Jacob deGrom (you can probably hear me sigh from wherever you are reading this). Quality starts is something that is more so based on a pitcher’s performance alone. It’s simple, pitch at least six innings with no more than three earned runs and you earn a quality start. Let’s glance at the quality start leaders from last season.

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1/21/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• George Springer to TOR (1:30)
• Michael Brantley to HOU (7:22)
• Jason Castro to HOU (12:30)
• Jose Quintana to LAA (16:20)
• J.A. Happ to MIN (21:40)

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The Padres are at it again, this time participating in a three-team trade that sees them acquiring starting pitcher Joe Musgrove. Musgrove has been a popular sleeper for the past couple of seasons, despite having never posted an ERA below 4.00 or a strikeout rate above 22%. He did accomplish both over 39.2 innings in 2020, though, but obviously such a tiny sample size doesn’t mean a whole lot. His career SIERA is a bit lower than his ERA, offering hope for better and a velocity surge at times also excited many. He’s been a tease so far, so will his new home park give him a better chance of breaking out? Let’s consult the park factors.

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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of eight more starters. You can find the other editions here:

• Part 1
• Part 2
• Part 3
• Part 4
• Part 5
• Part 6
• Part 7
• Part 8
• Part 9

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Let’s start off with the obvious here, what is Z-Contact%? If you check out our handy dandy glossary you would see “Pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone/Swings on pitches inside the zone.” For pitchers, quite simply how often do opposing hitters make contact on their pitches when they throw inside the zone. Here are the leaders from 2020.

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Last week, I reviewed my starting pitcher K% surgers list, so today, I’ll review my starting pitcher K% decliners list, which was assembled using my pitcher xK% equation. Strikeout rates tend to bounce around throughout the season, so it’s pretty silly to be evaluating the accuracy of this list considering the pitchers only made 11 or 12 starts. But it’s all we have, so let’s get to it.

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1/15/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host/Producer

2021 STEAMER GEMS

• Franmil Reyes (2:43)
• Jesse Winker (7:22)
• Brandon Nimmo (13:36)
• Alejandro Kirk (18:35)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams. Here is an evaluation of eight more starters (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8).

#523 Bryse Wilson

I’m a little surprised Wilson is being drafted this high (i.e. at all). In 42 career innings over three seasons, he has a 5.91 ERA supported by a 5.3 BB/9. He has been unplayable. I could just go through the plethora of negatives, but instead, I’ll state the few positives (career numbers).

1. He was decent in AAA in 2019 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 121 innings.
2. A 94-mph four-seamer with a 10% SwStr% and a popup inducing 32% GB%.
3. A 93-mph sinker with a 11% SwStr% and 73% GB%.
4. And what looks like an average changeup (12% SwStr%).

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