Peripheral Prospects of 2019, but in 2020

In 2019, Brad Johnson and I published a weekly series in which we, each on a semiweekly basis, identified three or four or five players in the Minor Leagues who (1) had not appeared on previous top-prospect lists and (2) appeared to us to be capable of producing admirably, perhaps significantly, at the big-league level at some point for fantasy purposes.

Because of an actual force majeure (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic), Peripheral Prospects was rendered temporarily null as the Minor League Baseball season was cancelled. Alas, we published nothing about peripheral prospects. But that does not mean peripheral prospects did not thrive! Peripheral prospects indeed thrived.

I figured it would behoove me to not only review my favorite peripheral prospects from the end of 2019 but also highlight my favorite (existing) peripheral prospects heading into 2021, before a whole new batch of peripheral prospects is anointed. Here, I’ll revisit my 10 favorites from 2019; next time, I’ll highlight another 10 whose progress I’m eager to monitor in 2021.

Week 1: Mike Tauchman | 30 | NYY | OF

2020 stats (MLB): 0 HR, 6 SB, .242/.342/.305 (78 wRC+) in 111 PA

Anything can happen in (what roughly amounts to) a month of baseball. Unfortunately, a bad anything happened to Tauchman: he failed to see the consistent chunks of playing time that made him a mainstay in the summer of 2019.

If we step back and appreciate Tauchman’s entire body of work across four partial seasons at the MLB level, we see a 13-homer, 14-steal, .250-average line that prorates to 16-18-.250 in 600 plate appearances (PA). Whether or not you buy it, that’s pretty good! (The projections buy it for the most part: in aggregate, they see a 15-15-.245 hitter in 2021, and Steamer thinks Tauchman could still be a 3.0-WAR player.)

Of course, any production from Tauchman hinges on many moving parts: injuries to the core three of Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Aaron Hicks (easily foreseeable, honestly); a possible re-signing of ageless and giant-domed Brett Gardner (becoming less likely with each passing day); and the continued post-hype breakout of Clint Frazier. Gardner would be Tauchman’s biggest hindrance; a Gardner-less outfield would make Tauchman the fourth outfielder and guarantee him probably 300 PA, if upwards of 450 PA. That makes him a quality target in draft-and-hold and best-ball leagues, like the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) Draft Champions format.

Week 3: Cavan Biggio | 26 | TOR | 2B

2020 stats (MLB): 8 HR, 6 SB, .250/.375/.432 (124 wRC+) in 265 PA

I mean, the guy finished 5th in 2019’s Rookie of the Year voting, sports a 24-20-.240 line through his first 695 PA, and sits pretty in the NFBC’s top-60 players by average draft position (ADP). What more could you ask for?

Week 5: Jake Cronenworth | 27 | TBR | SS

2020 stats (MLB): 4 HR, 3 SB, .285/.354/.477 (125 wRC+) in 192 PA

OK, now we’re cooking with gas. I didn’t hear anyone but Brad and me excited about Cronenworth — except for, off the top of my head, Prospects365 founder Ray Butler who last year won Razzball’s inaugural industry-wide best-ball competition Razzslam (out of 216) and finished 6th in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (out of 390). I can only assume Butler’s success is directly attributable to him also being an early adopter of Cronenworth. (I finished 15th and 76th, respectively, in those competitions. One could certainly do worse than top-15 and 80th percentile.)

Cronenworth checked all my usual boxes: he walked almost as often as he struck out (fueled by a tidy 6.0% swinging strike rate) with a splash of power and speed, just enough to intrigue the hell out of me. Somewhat hilariously, I presciently noted:

The Rays, like the Astros, are flush with legitimate prospect talent in the minors, let alone expendable fringe talent. It’s hard to know if and how much Cronenworth plays for the Rays — if he even plays for the Rays or ends up elsewhere.

“Rake Cronenworth” (Paul Sporer’s nickname for my little king) made good on his promise, providing everything his Triple-A line (10-12-.334 in 430 PA) suggested he would provide in a burgeoning San Diego offense. There’s an extremely strong Spiderman-pointing-at-Spiderman-meme vibe here when mentally comparing Cronenworth to Jeff McNeil in terms of not only skills but also “situation.” Heading into 2019, it appeared McNeil might be relegated to a super-utility role (with no guarantee of a starting role, that is) — before he went absolutely HAM, just like I expected.

Not that McNeil’s path telegraphs Cronenworth’s, but with an ADP of 171.57, I can’t shake the Groundhog Day feeling here. After his full breakout, McNeil was (if I recall correctly) a top-80 pick in 2020.

Week 7: Josh Rojas | 27 | ARI | OF

2020 stats (MLB): 0 HR, 1 SB, .180/.257/.180 (24 wRC+) in 70 PA

I’m not sure it’s true, but I’ll claim the title anyway. I conducted the Josh Rojas hype train last year.

Which sucks to admit, because, among 366 hitters who compiled at least 70 PA last year, he was 3rd-worst by measure of wRC+. At least the two who were worse (Oscar Mercado and David Dahl) have had their own — much larger — hype trains. And 4th-worst was top prospect Jo Adell.

Not all is lost. His plate discipline was almost perfectly league-average, and he’s undoubtedly better than a .234 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and, uh, a .000 — yes, zero zero zero — isolated power (ISO). In fact, the major projection systems expect something like a 13-19-.247 line from Rojas in 600 PA. You could do a lot worse!

Of course, Rojas’ biggest impediment — despite himself, apparently — is playing time. It appeared a move to Arizona would afford him more of it, yet the Diamondbacks made additional transactions last offseason that eventually crowded Rojas out of a starting (or even super-utility) gig. The same impediments remain in 2021, with Daulton Varsho’s positional flexibility making the outfield even more crowded (and the sudden signing of Asdrúbal Cabrera further burying Rojas’ inroads in the infield).

Rojas hardly cost us anything last year, so him ending up a bust is not a huge loss. But his draft stock couldn’t be any lower now — which, incidentally, makes him a great target for draft-and-hold and best-ball leagues. The ceiling here remains nothing to sneeze at — just don’t hold your breath that he breaks out. They can’t all be winners.

Week 7: Matt Beaty | 28 | LAD | 1B

2020 stats (MLB): 2 HR, 0 SB, .220/.278/.360 (76 wRC+) in 54 PA

Proration is a dangerous game, but Beaty has posted a 20-9-.258 pace through his first 322 PA. It might be even more than I expected, and his 14.6% strikeout rate (K%) buoyed by a 8.4% swinging strike rate are as advertised. There is legitimate productive capability here, even if the ceiling is not especially high. It’s just hard to expect him to play more than once every third game, on average, unless the Dodgers become ravaged by injuries (and even then he may remain a low priority for them).

Week 9: Ljay Newsome | 24 | SEA | SP

2020 stats (MLB): 5.17 ERA (4.83 SIERA), 13.2% K (10.2% SwStr), 1.5% BB in 15.2 IP

Again with the “as advertised” business, but: at least Newsome’s walk rate (1.5% BB) came as advertised in his small-sample debut. Beyond that, it’s easy to dismiss Newsome’s apparently lackluster introduction to the major leagues. Fortunately for Newsome stockholders, his swinging strike rate suggests a much better than the meager 13.2% strikeout rate he posted.

He featured three pitches: a four-seamer that ranked 92nd percentile in height-adjusted vertical approach angle (VAA) and two (thus far) weak secondaries in his curve and change-up. The fastball is the type that can thrive up in the zone and would likely pair really well with a steep-breaking curve — of which Newsome’s is not (unsurprising, given the pitch’s 3rd-percentile spin rate). The jury remains out on the change-up.

I’m no pitch or arsenal architect, but I could see Newsome thriving with a typical fastballs-up, secondaries-low approach, especially with what seems to be excellent command. But we ought not to conflate command with simple control: Newsome ranked 98th percentile in pitch frequency in the heart of the zone last year — a bad thing when you consider hitters perform best against such pitches.

This is all to say: I remain intrigued by Newsome’s potential, but the flaws, despite the small-sample caveats, are evident. Roster Resource currently projects a six-man rotation that excludes Newsome, but I don’t see Justin Dunn or Nick Margevicius holding back Newsome. Newsome should have plenty of time to re-audition, which means, like many others on this list, I’ll target him judiciously in deep draft-and-hold and best-ball leagues.

Week 11: Luis Arraez | 24 | MIN | 2B

2020 stats (MLB): 0 HR, 0 SB, .321/.364/.402 (111 wRC+) in 121 PA

It’s possible that Arraez, in a permanent full-time role, could win the batting title every single year. His hitting profile (like that of David Fletcher) hardly belongs in the current game, and his double zeroes are, frankly, kind of hilarious. Arraez has invariably become what we hoped Willians Astudillo would be, although not quite as extreme (but with the no-homer, no-steal, high-average outcomes we desired). Allegedly he will be pushed to a utility role in the wake of the Andrelton Simmons signing. He probably still makes for an adequate late-round pick to shore up batting average and (like many of these players) a decent draft-and-hold/best-ball target.

Week 12: Jose Urquidy | 26 | HOU | SP

2020 stats (MLB): 2.73 ERA (5.41 SIERA), 14.7% K (9.1% SwStr), 6.9% BB in 29.2 IP

It’s nice to see Urquidy getting respect in drafts this year (his NFBC ADP is 221.4, as I write this), but it’s weird to see it come with the dissonance of people chasing better outcomes on worse underlying metrics. Anything can happen in five starts, but a 14.7% strikeout rate in any five-game span and an ERA (2.73) half the size of a SIERA (5.41) does not exactly inspire confidence.

It’s clear Urquidy uses a fastballs-up, curve-down approach that begets many a pop-up and ground ball, respectively. It’s not a bad way to live. The curve itself is not particularly lethal — it’s his slider that gets the most whiffs, although I can’t tell if he actually commands it well. I imagine he does, given the tidy walk rate. But he relies on his fastball/change-up tandem in nearly three-fourths of two-strike counts when, perhaps, he should be looking to his slider and curve instead.

That just means there’s room for improvement, and with his fastball boasting an 8.9% swinging strike rate and all his secondaries in the double-digits, that meager strikeout rate in 2020 seems like a mirage. The breakout could begin in earnest in 2021, making Urquidy a modest-upside pick at his play with fairly insubstantial risk in standard mixed (10- and 12-team) leagues.

Week 12: Ashton Goudeau | 29 | BAL | RP

2020 stats (MLB): 7.56 ERA (5.73 SIERA), 5.1% K (6.1% SwStr), 5.1% BB in 8.1 IP

Goudeau being the worst name so far is actually a not-awful testament to the quality of names on this list. The Rockies waived Goudeau and Baltimore claimed him; there, he should work in middle relief. His 2020 sample, while ghastly, is still too small to make anything of. There’s a miniscule chance he’s not only good but also somehow usurps the closer role from Mychal Givens, who is… not great! Nor is anyone in that bullpen. Which is why Goudeau somehow has a chance. But, like Rojas, I won’t hold my breath.

Week 15: Randy Dobnak | 26 | MIN | SP

2020 stats (MLB): 4.05 ERA (4.56 SIERA), 13.5% K (9.1% SwStr), 6.5% BB in 46.2 IP

Let’s start with the good. Dobnak’s 62.1% ground ball rate ranks highest of any pitcher who threw at least 40 innings last year, thanks to his bowling-ball sinker. He also added a slider, as PitcherList’s Ben Palmer noted here, and it was actually pretty good!

Now, for the bad. Dobnak struck out only 13.5% of opposing hitters.

That’s it, though (well… it’s in the eye of the beholder), because Dobnak, while lacking for strikeouts, makes up for it in his extreme launch angle-suppressing ways. His four “primary” pitches — his sinker, slider, change-up, and curve — all featured ground ball rates north of 49% last year. His sinker allows the hardest contact, but it’s so heavy that, since his debut, it has allowed just a 3.4% barrel rate — and not a single blast. He allows hard ground balls, then, which could get him dinged up in the BABIP department. But a few of extra singles is the opportunity cost of allowing scarcely any home runs.

Indeed, Dobnak will invariably cut from the same cloth as Dallas Keuchel: not a ton of whiffs, but a ton of ground balls that naturally suppresses contact quality (and limits weighted on-base average on contact [wOBAcon]) and pretty solid command that keeps the walk rate tidy. Better yet, Dobnak sports a better array of secondaries than Keuchel does — which leads me to believe, with cautious optimism, that Dobnak at ADP 526.1 could out-perform the already-underrated Keuchel at ADP 196.6.

Also, like for Urquidy, I don’t buy Dobnak’s sunken K-rate for a second — a career 10.5% whiff rate should get him much farther than the flimsy 15.7% strikeout rate he has posted through 15 career starts — and would expect something much closer to 2019’s 19.5% clip, especially considering the addition of his slider. All in all, there’s a lot to work with here, and — pssssst — Keuchel leveraged this skill set at his peak and turned it into a Cy Young (although a whopping 20 wins helped). Insert shrug emoji here.