Ottoneu: Jake’s Keep or Cut Decisions at SP
Lucas kicked off our final position group as we look at our difficult keep or cut decisions ahead of the keeper deadline. Here are four starting pitchers on my keep/cut bubble.
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Aaron Nola, SP
Salary: $34
Average Salary: $33
2024 P/G: 4.26
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.39
2024 was the second consecutive season in which Aaron Nola’s FIP approached four. It’s not hard to see why; after a three-year stretch with a strikeout rate of 30% and a HR/FB rate of 12.5% from 2020-22, Nola has seen both of those metrics deteriorate pretty significantly. His 24% strikeout rate last year was the lowest that metrics has been since his rookie season back in 2015, and while he’s always struggled a bit with a home run problem, that issue has been exacerbated over the last two years.
The good news is that his trademark curveball is still a fantastically effective weapon and his four-seamer plays incredibly well off that breaking ball. The bad news is that his changeup and cutter both lost a ton of effectiveness in 2024, giving him fewer options to attack batters with. Until those other secondary offering regain their bite, I’m not sure he has the same kind of ceiling that we saw in 2022 when he posted a 2.58 FIP.
What Nola does have going for him is a steady track record of solid production while also making more than 30 starts in six straight seasons (ignoring the pandemic shortened season). That kind of bulk production certainly has value but if you’re expecting a front-line starter and paying those kinds of prices to roster him, I’m afraid you’re going to be sorely disappointed. It’s also worth mentioning that Nola is a far better pitcher in 5×5 or 4×4 formats since his high home run rates really hurt him in Ottoneu points leagues.
Keep or cut?
I’m cutting at $34 and I’d expect to see a ton of shares of Nola cut across the Ottoneu universe as players realize he’s just not the ace that his $33 average salary assumes he is anymore. I’m expecting a bit of a rebound — and the projections agree to a certain extent — but I wouldn’t pay more than $15 to keep him on my roster at this point.
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George Kirby, SP
Salary: $34, $19, $18
Average Salary: $19
2024 P/G: 4.92
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.72
I’m really conflicted about what to do with George Kirby. He’s one of my favorite pitchers to watch because he’s an absolute surgeon with his deep repertoire of outstanding pitches. Unfortunately, that precise command seems to be the cause of a lot of the issues that he’s had trouble overcoming during his first three seasons in the big leagues. Because he locates his pitches in the zone so frequently, batters can more easily identify out-of-the-zone pitches when he’s seeking a whiff. Despite running an elite 29.1% whiff rate on his four-seamer, batters have learned to sit on that pitch and regularly punish it after spitting on his secondary offerings.
This tension between maintaining an otherworldly strikeout-to-walk ratio and limiting the hard contact he allows doesn’t have an easy answer either. He’s going to have to figure out how to maximize his secondary offerings while working on a less predictable approach to give batters some pause when they’re facing him. That might mean a few more walks over the course of the season, but if the result is more strikeouts and fewer balls in play, Kirby will likely continue to thrive. If he doesn’t make the necessary adjustments, then the depressed projection might be more accurate than we’d like.
Keep or cut?
I’m cutting at $34 (or desperately trying to find a trade partner who really believes in Kirby), but keeping at $18 and $19. That’s pretty close to his current ceiling, but those adjustments could obviously break things wide open and that’s what you’re hoping for if you’re keeping him in the mid-$20s.
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Taj Bradley, SP
Salary: $10
Average Salary: $8
2024 P/G: 4.29
Projected 2025 P/G: 4.42
Taj Bradley started off last year brilliantly; through his first 14 starts, he had posted a 2.43 ERA and a 3.41 FIP behind a fantastic 30% strikeout rate. He fell apart in August and September and ended the season with an ERA and FIP both above four. It was just his second taste of the big leagues and many of his underlying metrics look promising, but there are still big questions about his ability to leverage those skills into a complete package.
All three of his secondary offerings returned a whiff rate over 30% last year. There are just a handful of pitchers who can say the same thing and all of them who can are among the best pitchers in baseball. Bradley’s downfall is his fastball. It’s got good physical characteristics — his 129 Stuff+ on his heater is outstanding — but batters don’t seem phased by it. Its whiff rate is decent, but when the pitch gets put in play, it gets absolutely pounded to the tune of a .391 xwOBA and a .500 slugging percentage against. Since he doesn’t have precise command of his repertoire, too many of his fastballs get left over the heart of the plate where they’re absolutely crushed.
The nasty secondary offerings give me hope that he’ll figure things out but I can’t ignore the very real contact issues he’s faced that have led to far too many home runs. His start to last year gives us a pretty good glimpse of what could be if things go right, but his second half is the red flag that warns us not to pay for that ceiling yet.
Keep or cut?
I honestly could go either way on keeping at $10 and so the decision likely comes down to team context and how my budget is shaping up. That double digit salary is the absolute highest I’d want to roster him for at this point.
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Bowden Francis, SP
Salary: $5, $7
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/G: 4.46
Projected 2025 P/G: 3.68
Across his final nine starts of the season, Bowden Francis was nearly unhittable, producing a 1.53 ERA while striking out 56 in 59 innings. Those sterling results hid a lackluster 3.42 FIP and 3.75 xFIP during that stretch. Everyone is pointing to the splitter he added to his repertoire last year as the meaningful difference maker but I’d like to point out that he also increased the usage of his slider in August and September and that pitch returned a whiff rate over 50% during those two hot months.
Of course, the projection systems aren’t buying into that two-month stretch yet. They see a pretty steep drop off from what he accomplished in 2024, backed up by his advanced age and long minor league track record. An age-28 breakout isn’t unheard of but it’s pretty rare and it’s unlikely an indicator of a major talent change.
Keep or cut?
At $5, I’m interested in seeing if he really has made a tweak to his slider to unlock that pitch as a true swing-and-miss weapon. At $7, he has too many warts and question marks to keep.
