I posted a preview of this in today’s SP Chart, but even that Top 75 has since changed so please use this as the reference going forward. Please feel free to post your questions & comments below, I’ll be in there responding all weekend. These aren’t meant o be ironclad through the rest of the season, any rankings update is a 4-6 week outlook for me so I’m not yet concerned about potential workload shutdowns and things of that nature. Additionally, this ranking specifically might have more of a 1-3 week shelf life with the Trade Deadline looming so I will run another update shortly after that if there are substantive changes across the league. I say “if” just because the deadline could be a dud if too many teams think they’re in it and no one really sells, but I don’t expect that as there should be enough true sellers already identified to facilitate some real movement.
Injured guys aren’t ranked outside a couple who are close to returning if I recall correctly. You can ask about someone, but if they’re not due back in the next week or two, I won’t really have much insight as it’ll be dependent on their health & return. There may be a few 6th-starter types ranked here as opposed to making sure I got 5 guys per team in the Top 150 as we don’t really need every Rockie on the list.
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
Note: due to the All-Star break, the Week 17 Ottoneu matchup runs for 10 days from July 18–27. If your head-to-head league has a games started cap, the number of starts doesn’t change even with the additional days. That means you’ll have a lot more starts to pick from to hit your cap — you’ll want to be extra judicious when picking your starters this week. I’ve separated this weekend’s games from next week’s into two tables below for a little more clarity.
The All-Star break is here! That means it’s time to get polling. As has become an annual tradition, I’m going to start by comparing starting pitchers’ ERA to SIERA, pitting the SIERA overperformers against the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period. This is the poll I began with back in 2013.
Below are the latest significant playing time projection changes for starters and relievers over the past week. The biggest news is Cam Schlittler‘s call-up, with his debut coming at the unfortunate cost of Clarke Schmidt’s UCL.
Change in Proj. % of Team’s Remaining GS, 7/4 to 7/11
Had you been rostering and starting Tanner Houck on April 14th, you likely wouldn’t have started him in his next outing on April 20th, assuming you were paying attention. On the 14th, he got blown up by the Tampa Bay Rays and exited the game early in the third inning after 11 earned runs crossed the plate. If that performance deterred you from staring him on April 20th, you were likely doubly annoyed when he turned in a decent outing against the White Sox. But look a little closer, and you will see pitches that should have been down, left up in the zone. You’ll see strikeouts on pitches that hitters who are not on the White Sox may have put over the fence. Who am I to call a good start bad? Houck got it done, but in this article, I’ll dive a little deeper to put it in context with his previous two starts in this final installment of The Three Appearance Analysis.
On Sunday, I read the following comment on Rotoworld about Chase Burns‘ start:
His fastball was located well, but, as has been true in his first two starts, he doesn’t get tons of whiffs on the pitch. He had eight whiffs on 55 total fastballs in this one, with a whopping 16 foul balls. His fastball has below average extension and simply isn’t as elite of a pitch against big league hitters who can handle high velocity.
Sure enough, his four-seamer has generated just a 7.6% SwStk% despite the pitch averaging a scintillating 98.2 MPH. So it got me thinking about perceived velocity, which extension affects. If a pitcher is throwing 95 MPH, but the batter perceives the pitch’s velocity to actually be 97 MPH, or perhaps 93 MPH, that should matter, right? I would therefore think the gap between perceived and actual velocity would influence the pitch’s whiff rate and the pitcher’s strikeout rate. So I decided to dive in and find out if that theory is true.
Last week, I reviewed how the top hitting prospect have performed in the Majors this year. Today, let’s flip over to the pitching prospects. This time, I’ll be using the Post-Spring Training Top 100 Prospects Update, instead of the preseason list.
What happened!? That’s the question we ask the morning after a stinker performance by a starting pitcher when we’re looking over our fantasy results from the night before. It’s not an easy question to answer, and even when you come to a conclusion, someone else may have a completely different perspective. This article series serves as the starting point for answering that question in the context of three individual outings. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).
The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. Here are eight starters who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues.
Whether or not you believe in Michael Soroka’s resurgence or not boils down to how sustainable you think his home run rate is. He’s currently allowing a 1.52 HR/9 and 15.4% HR/FB, both of which aren’t out of the norm for his career. Under the surface, you’ll notice that he currently possesses a 3.75 xFIP, 3.34 SIERA, and 3.04 xERA, all of which are well below his 4.70 ERA and 4.33 FIP. He’s allowed just nine barrels all season long, is sporting an above average groundball rate, and the highest strikeout rate of his career. Almost all the damage has come against his four-seam fastball and the underlying performance of that pitch was slightly better in June (.304 xwOBA) than it had been during the first two months of the season (.347 xwOBA). I’m willing to bet that his results on the field will start to look a lot more like his peripherals over the next few months.
Eduardo Rodriguez was one of my favorite preseason sleeper picks — I love a veteran pitcher with a recent history of success because they’re so often undervalued, particularly in Ottoneu. It’s been an up-and-down season for Rodriguez; he had a 2.81 FIP through his first five starts, completely fell apart over his next four with 24 runs allowed in 16 innings, and then hit the IL with a minor shoulder injury. He returned at the beginning of June and has allowed just 7 runs in five starts with an excellent 3.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The ongoing health of his shoulder is a concern, but this version of Rodriguez over the last month has been a pretty useful starter.
There are three Orioles starters in the table above so I’ll tackle them all here. Charlie Morton has rebounded quite nicely from his miserable start to the season; since rejoining the starting rotation on May 26, he’s posted a 2.90 ERA and a 2.47 FIP across six starts. His start this week was pushed back to Friday thanks to some minor elbow inflammation, so that’s definitely something to monitor. Trevor Rogers has also looked solid since being recalled on June 18, posting a 2.87 ERA and a 3.41 FIP across three starts. Injuries had absolutely derailed his career but he looks healthy now and maybe he can regain some of the magic from his 2021 breakout with the Marlins. As for Dean Kremer, he’s on a nice little run of starts — a 2.61 ERA and a matching 2.60 FIP across his last seven outings. The only thing I can spot in his profile is a sharp increase in the number of splitters he’s throwing. It’s his best pitch so it’s nice to see the results follow.
I featured Adrian Houser in this column a month ago at the start of June and he’s continued to put up solid numbers for the White Sox since then. I noted that his changeup looked like it was fueling a lot of his success this year — that pitch still has a 42.3% whiff rate — but the results on his curveball have also significantly improved. That gives him two excellent secondary pitches to pair off of his bowling ball sinker.
With seven starters currently on the IL, the Dodgers’ rotation has been in shambles for most of the season. Of all the pitchers they’ve churned through, Justin Wrobleski looks like the one who is going to manage to stick around. He’s allowed just four runs across his last three outings with an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio. His fastball’s 32.5% whiff rate sits in the 94th percentile for that pitch type and it’s a big reason why he’s been able to wrack up the strikeouts. One thing to note for Ottoneu players: the Dodgers have either used Wrobleski as a piggybacked bulk reliever or used an opener in front of him. That means you’ll need to pay attention to which day’s he might be scheduled to pitch and where you place him in your lineup. Head-to-head players will get an additional bonus for rostering him since his outings won’t count against your weekly games started cap — assuming the Dodgers continue to use him as a bulk reliever rather than a traditional starter.
The reason why Stephen Kolek appears in the table above is because his groundball rate is in the 85th percentile among starters with at least 60 innings pitched this year and his home run rate is in the 78th percentile. He doesn’t strike out that many and his walk rate is merely average. If you’re rostering him, you’re banking on those two skills carrying most of his value. The first should be fine but the second could be particularly volatile as the weather warms up.
