Over the course of the last few weeks of the regular season last year, I had explored different ethical and strategic questions posed to me via email and social media. It was a fun series to write and while some definitely did not like me or my advice, others loved it. So, I am hoping to make this a reoccurring series that will pop up periodically throughout 2017. Feel free to send me more questions at JustinMasonFantasy@gmail.com or on twitter @JustinMasonFWFB and when I have enough, I will do another installment. Thanks for playing along! Read the rest of this entry »

This season, I was lucky enough for a couple print publications, Lindy’s and The Fantasy Baseball Guide, asked me to contribute their fantasy preview magazines.  While the quality of both magazines is top notch, print publications have limited room for explanations and no ability for back-and-forth discussions. Today, I am going to go over my contributions which I feel could use more explanation and will answer any questions on my thought process.

Lindy’s

For Lindy’s, I participated in their 12-team mock draft ( standard team except 1 C, 4 OF, 8P) and I picked out of the 3rd position. Here is my team

Position – Name (Round Drafted)
C – Buster Posey (3)
1B – Hanley Ramirez (7)
2B – Rougned Odor (2)
3B – Adrian Beltre (4)
SS – Marcus Semien (12)
MI – Jung Ho Kang (17)
CI – Albert Pujols (10)
OF – Andrew McCutchen (5)
OF – Mark Trumbo (9)
OF – Marcell Ozuna (14)
OF – Matt Holliday (16)
Util – Mike Moustakas (18)
P – Clayton Kershaw (1)
P – Chris Archer (6)
P – Rich Hill (11)
P – James Paxton (13)
P – Michael Pineda (19)
P – Jharel Cotton (20)
P – Andrew Miller (8)
P – Shawn Kelley (15)

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Around this time last year (edit: actually, it was more like sometime in 2014), Eno Sarris introduced the Arsenal Score. It was, and still is, a novel concept: for every pitcher, evaluate each of his pitches based strictly on their strikeout- and ground ball-inducing tendencies. Each pitch would be evaluated relative to its contemporaries — in other words, Corey Kluber’s slider would be compared to all other sliders in the league.

I’ll speak for Eno when I say the original Arsenal Scores weren’t meant to be especially rigorous. They received some flak for being mathematically inaccurate — to which I say, it doesn’t really matter. Originally, Eno calculated separate Z-scores for the ground ball rate (GB%) and swinging strike rate (SwStr%) — called “Z-BIP” and “Z-Whiff,” respectively, in the results to follow — of each pitch for every pitcher. The aggregate Z-scores — two Z-scores times X number of pitches — comprise the full Arsenal Score.

This time around, I propose a few tweaks:

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My article today spawned after listening to The Sleeper and the Bust podcast when Paul Sporer interviewed NBFC’s Main Event champion Rob Silver. The entire podcast is a must listen, but one part sparked my interest. Rob mentioned he uses infield flyball rate plus strikeout rate minus walk rate to value pitchers (55:45 point). Silver successfully targeted Kevin Gausmann, Marco Estrada, and Rick Porcello late in his draft by using this stat combination. I will create the same filter to find 2017 sleepers.

There is no easier ball to catch than the infield fly. It’s an easy out. In those few instance when they errantly fall to the ground, a fantasy owner shouldn’t worry since the rest of the inning’s runs won’t count because of the error.

Besides being an easy out, a player’s infield fly rate stabilizes with just over a half season’s data. While infield flies don’t stabilize as fast as strikeouts, they do become stable within a season.

Infield fly rate (IFFB%), especially as we represent it here at Fangraphs, misleads the user. The IFFB% listed indicates the percentage of flyballs (FB%), not all batted balls, which are hit in the infield. To get the infield popup rate, the IFFB% must be multiplied by the FB%. The confusion doesn’t end yet.

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Don’t you love it when a player’s name makes it super simple to create an absolutely brilliant title? I do! So yesterday, the Mariners continued their fantasy league moves by acquiring 27-year-old southpaw Drew Smyly. Up until 2016, Smyly enjoyed a fantastic beginning to his career, as he owned a 3.24 ERA/3.43 SIERA between the starting rotation and bullpen. But shoulder injuries hit in 2015 and he becaome afflicted with a severe bout of gopheritis during this past season. His ERA ballooned to 4.88 as his strikeout rate fell and he allowed the second highest fly ball rate in baseball among qualified pitchers. Now he moves to Seattle, where perhaps a change of scenery could do him some good. Will he benefit from the park switch? Let’s find out if such a possibility exists.

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There are plenty of ways to characterize David Phelps‘ success in 2016. Among pitchers who threw at least 80 innings, he posted the 5th-best ERA (2.28), 6th-best xFIP (3.15) and 7th-best FIP (2.80). That’s a big deal, although it’s a decidedly smaller deal considering the bulk of Phelps’ innings came from the bullpen.

The reason for Phelps’ success — the cause to the effect, that is — is fairly obvious:

Phelps added more than 3 mph to his four-seamer and sinker as well as a tick or two to each of his off-speed pitches.* In an August edition of his NERD game scores, Carson Cistulli quipped, “As with most other pitchers, Phelps at 94-95 [mph] is markedly different than Phelps at 91.” Indeed, Cistulli. Phelps looked like a changed man.

It’s easy to attribute his sudden late-career success to his almost-full-time move to the bullpen. It’s how the narrative typically plays out: a pitcher’s velocity plays up better in short spurts. It’s why we expect failed starters can become elite relievers. It’s a cognitive bias, but it’s a bias we have because it tends to be true. This shorthanded logic, however, undersells Phelps’ gains both under the hood and on the mound.

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So on Thursday, I used my xK% equation (updated version coming soon! probably) to assemble a list of starting pitchers that possess strikeout rate upside this year, strictly based on their strike percentage, looking, swinging, and foul strike rates. In it, I hinted that maybe I’ll recap how my 2016 pitcher list performed and since the majority of the comments requested such a post, here it is! Remember that the list assumes no change in pitch mix, strike percentage, or strike type rates. Essentially it’s saying that if the pitcher keeps doing the same thing, his strikeout rate should improve simply based on better sequencing or fortune.

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On Wednesday we began our two-part deconstruction of the 2010 film… OK, OK, sorry. Gosh. Actually, I identified four AL starters I could see making the leap for 2017. Fans of the Senior Circuit needn’t fret, I’ve got some names for you today! By the way, sorry I pushed this a day, but the schedule was loaded plus we had a podcast so I decided to hold it.

Jon Gray | Rockies

A recommendation for a pitcher in Colorado?! Yes. Gray is a stud-in-the-making. The obvious path to success for a Rockies arm is “survive at home, dominate on the road”. Gray was actually worse on the road this past thanks to some meltdown starts and of course, he had a couple in Coors, too, yielding a paltry 4.61 ERA when it was all said and done. Despite the lofty ERA, he still had a 1.26 WHIP and best of all, a 26% strikeout rate.

His strikeout rate is actually the fourth-best from a rookie since 2000 (min. 162 IP). Only Jose Fernandez (28%), Yu Darvish (27%), and Rick Ankiel (26%… 26.4% to be precise) were better. Gray’s ERA was the worst of anyone in the top-15, but his WHIP was 7th-best of that confined group. The shortcut here would be to just point out that the FIP was 3.60 and his SIERA was 3.72. His skills were better than the ERA suggests.

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Three years ago, I shared with you an updated version of my xK% equation. The formula uses a trio of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s looking, swinging, and foul strike percentages, along with his overall rate of strikes thrown. With an adjusted R-squared of 0.913, it explains a very high percentage of a pitcher’s strikeout rate. Its best use is early in the season when the plate appearance (the K% denominator) sample size is still small, as xK% uses total pitches as the denominator, so we can reach a reasonable sample size to analyze much more quickly.

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This piece isn’t about that extra day in February that comes around once every four years. I’m a year late for that. No, this is a 2500-word breakdown of the 2010 rom-com starring Amy Adams, who has actually appeared in every single movie since 2005. I should’ve saved this piece for January 8th, which marks the 7-year anniversary since the film’s release, but we don’t post on Sundays. Anyway, Adams plays Anna who is… OK, I’ve taken this joke (and I use that term loosely) entirely too far, but I still kinda want to write 2500 words on this sweet, sweet movie film.

A leap year in sports isn’t an official thing, but “making the leap” is when a player puts it all together and pans out on previously established promise. I’m not even sure you have to have the promise or hype ahead of your leap, but the pitchers I’m discussing in this piece definitely do. “Leapers” over the last two seasons include guys like Aaron Sanchez, Danny Duffy, Carlos Carrasco, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Martinez. There is no set formula or requirements, so this is definitely more of a feel thing.

Sanchez had all of 125.3 MLB innings, mostly in the bullpen before his 2016 breakout. Cole had two solid seasons with about 2/3rds of a full workload before his 208-inning masterpiece in 2015. Carrasco discovered himself in the bullpen as a 27-year old after multiple false starts in five disjointed MLB seasons (one of which was lost to TJ recovery).

To give some idea of what would constitute a leap year, I’d say first and foremost that you have to throw a full season (162+ IP) and then the stats can vary, but probably no worse than a mid-3.00s ERA, low-1.20s WHIP, and a good strikeout rate. Here are four American Leaguers who look ready for their leap in 2017 (I’ll have 4 NLers tomorrow*):

*Author Note – I mean Friday… we recorded the pod Thursday and I didn’t get to finish the last part of the NL piece, so look for it early Friday. 

Carlos Rodon | White Sox

Rodon keeps teasing with his second halves. Add up both and he has a 3.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 24% K rate in 146 IP. He took steps to combat his egregious walk rate dropping it from 12% to 8%. Early on, it seemed to be more control than command as his hit and home run rates surged in the first half (10.7 H/9, 1.5 HR/9), but the command came around in the second half as he continued to hit the zone while dropping the hits and homers to 8.3 and 1.0, respectively.

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