Archive for Starting Pitchers

Well, this is the earliest I’ve ever done SP rankings so let’s see how this goes! With the regular season wrapped, I figured it was worth putting my initial list together if only to see how it changes over the fall and winter leading into next March’s draft season. Heck, I’ve already done a mock draft hosted by the InThisLeague guys, which you can check out here and I’ll be on the clock for my annual NFBC draft at the BaseballHQ First Pitch Forum in a few short weeks so having an idea of the pitching pool will be very useful.

As usual, I went with tiers, but since we’re not in-season I simply numbered them instead of naming them. I think it really gets tough to differentiate sharply on guys in the middle of the pitcher pool. Trevor Bauer finished 36th on the Player Rater this year while Dinelson Lamet was 83rd, but are they really that far apart in talent? Maybe the point to make is that once you get to about 40 in the rankings, the separation with each ranking is a lot smaller than if you were comparing say #5 to #55.

Anyway, let’s get to the list. Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Was there anyone not in the top 111 that you really think has to be in there?

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Once again, heading into the all-star break, I presented two lists of 10 pitchers each — both lists composed of pitchers on each side of SIERA-ERA differential. I then asked you to vote on which group, the SIERA overperformers or underperformers, would power a lower second half ERA, and which ERA range each group will land in as a group average. Amazingly, the results suggested these two groups of pitchers were identical! Both garnered between 44% and 45% of the vote to post the lower ERA, while nearly 11.5% of you couldn’t choose a side, predicting the groups would finish within .05 earned runs of each other. Furthermore, 29% voted that 4.00-4.24 would be the ERA range that both groups would settle into, with 3.75-3.99 the second highest vote-getter at 27% and 28%. Pretty crazy how close these votes were! Let’s see what actually happened.

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It’s the season’s end. Good luck to everyone and hopefully I can help a few teams win their titles. Now, if there ever was a time to second guess me, it’s this weekend. Teams are limiting their pitcher innings and changing starters, especially the playoff-bound teams. Do a bit of fact checking before picking anyone up.

Note: All players have a 10% or less Yahoo! ownership.

Saturday

Luke Sims (5% owned) at Marlins (Odrisamer Despaigne)

If you’re streaming just for Wins, Sims is a perfectly decent option. He’s pitching good enough to squeak out a Win, especially against a beatable Miami team. His strikeouts are reasonable at ~7 K/9. His ERA and WHIP are likely to be high but it’s just one game.

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Only four days of games left in the regular season! Two of my three leagues are super close at the top and I’m lucky enough to be part of what’s sure to be a nail biting finish. So these pitching performances are of paramount importance. Let’s see who’s slated to pitch on Friday.

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The great, powerful, and unbelievably handsome Justin of Friends With Fantasy Benefits (and of course, RotoGraphs) is hosting four early mock drafts. I am participating in one of them.

All 4 #2EarlyMock drafts are running! https://t.co/F8MVltwVHThttps://t.co/voN0u0qhxohttps://t.co/Zs0dRbc3ZQhttps://t.co/b4kc4XbBk5

— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) September 21, 2017

In each draft, the following four pitchers went first without exception.

Last season in NFBC drafts, these four were included with the first six pitchers drafted on average. While Kershaw and Scherzer were 1st and 2nd in each draft, Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard were taken, on average, before Chris Sale and Corey Kluber. Both Bumgarner (bruised ribs, strained shoulder) and Syndergaard (torn lat muscle) missed most of the 2017 season. Because of their current injuries and unknown future health, their ADP has fallen in these four mocks.

The trepidation about owning them is understandable but owners still need to value the pair. It’s not going to be easy.

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Miguel Gonzalez (CBS 26% Owned) vs OAK (Sean Manaea)

There was a time in late August when Gonzalez was being added in leagues and I wondered why. Oh, of course, it was because he had allowed just four earned runs over four starts for a sparkling 1.29 ERA. Nevermind the fact was a typical for him 4.64, suggesting his skills were as terrible as always. Naturally, he proceeded to allow 14 runs over his next three starts, including a seven run implosion. Anyhow, it’s a good matchup, but he owns one of the worst career skill sets around and strikes out no one. I would never allow him to come near my team, let alone my active roster.

Bud Norris (23%) at CHW (Dylan Covey)

Making just his second “start” of the season, Norris pitched just 3.1 innings last Saturday. It’s doubtful he’d last long enough to make much of a difference or qualify for a win and that’s assuming he actually pitches well enough to be in line for one. No need to stream him.

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Ownership percentages are from CBS leagues.

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Tuesday’s lowly owned starters are a sad lot. Some decent arms have their ownership up like Daniel Mengden and Tyler Anderson. It’s like “Aces and Duds” today.

Just eyeballing some names, I may hold off and use some the guys going Wednesday (e.g. Andriese, Ynoa, Leiter)

Rafael Montero (3% owned) vs Atlanta (R.A. Dickey)

Montero is a perfectly good option for a team needing just strikeouts and Wins and doesn’t care about their ERA and WHIP. The game against Atlanta is winnable and Montero is averaging 8.6 K/9 as a starter. His value gets destroyed by the 5.0 BB/9 and the problem it causes to WHIP and ERA.
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We’ll be writing each day up again like last week, but here’s a quick primer on the pitching slate next week for possibly available arms.

*all stats cited for the 2nd half unless otherwise noted

Lefty

Tyler Anderson v. MIA – It is in Coors, but MIA has the 4th-worst wOBA v. lefties (.304) in the second half thanks to just a .126 ISO.

Brent Suter v. CIN – CIN has the 26th wOBA v. lefties (.305).

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Continuing our series of looking at widely available starters who might be worth a stream down the stretch, here is a look at Sunday. Tough slate with a general lack of really intriguing arms and then some of the ones who are appealing have to face very difficult matchups. These are ranked in order of how much I like them:

Luiz Gohara, ATL (4%) v. PHI (Pivetta)

He walked four in four during his MLB debut, but he’s been walk-free in his last two starts – both against Washington – allowing five earned in 12.3 IP with 10 K. Facing Texas and then Washington twice to open your MLB career is brutal, so this will be his best matchup by far. The Phillies are 27th in wOBA against lefties with a .308 mark. You might want to hang onto him for next week at Miami if this goes well.

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