Quick Looks: Gausman & Manaea

I’ve had a strong opinion of Sean Manaea and Kevin Gausmann which is significantly below the industry’s opinion of the pair. I believe while they have some plus tools, those tools don’t work together well. I did a quick look at the pair to see if I should alter my opinion of them based on recent performance.

Kevin Gausman

My previous beef with Gausman was that his fastball is not effective even though it comes in averaging 95 mph. To see if anything has changed, I watched the soon to be 26-year-old’s start on September 27th versus the Blue Jays

Notes

• Fastball: Sat at 92-96 mph with some release side run, maybe some sink. It’s still really straight and not very effective and performs as a below average fastball.

• Split change 84-86 mph Big late sink. This is still his best pitch and will get a ton of groundballs.

• Slider: Sat 79-82 mph. Really looks like a curve. An effective third pitch is what he’s been missing in the past few seasons and this pitch helps. It has gone from around an 8% SwStr% to 12% this past season. Nice groundball pitch.

• He lacks another pitch besides the fastball which he can regularly throw for called strikes with his splitter at 21% Zone% and Slider at 31%. He really needs to get that first strike. When he starts a count 0-1, he posts a 2.40 FIP. If he allows a called ball first, his FIP jumps to 6.19. Since he has to use his subpar fastball for strikes, he will likely continue to post higher than league BABIP and home run rates.

I could see how owners began to fall in love with him with his nice 3.10 ERA in the season’s 2nd half. Much of the change came from the luck stats (HR/9, BABIP, and LOB) while his K%-BB% was down just a hair (17.0% to 16.6%).

He reminds a lot of Michael Pineda. They both can get out hitters once they are ahead in the count. Since neither can throw their breaking balls for strikes, they are predictably forced to throw their fastball into the strike zone and get hit around. Both have ERA’s higher than their run estimators for this reason. I think Gausman will continue to post around a 4.00 ERA which will put him around the top 40 starters in the league.

Sean Manaea

I have been following Manaea in detail after seeing him pitch in person for Indiana St. and being drafted by the Royals. The biggest issue I’ve had with him is his across the body throw which seems to be more of a gimmick for lefties with very few being able to keep it going in the majors. Additionally, the twist pitch puts extra stress on the core muscles which can lead to injuries. The 24-year-old had a few of these injuries already in his short career.

For a game, I watched his September 14th game against the Royals

Notes

• Fastball (92) 93-96 mph. Besides the angle thrown from, a straight hittable pitch.

• Change (85) 84-87 mph, A very straight change, but extremely effective with a 55% GB% and 19% SwStr%. Hitter just can’t seem to square it up.

• Slider (80) 82 mph, release side run with sink. Completely different look than his other pitches. Another effective pitch with similar results as the change (55% GB%, 20% SwStr%)

• He still lands to the mound’s first base side and has to pivot home. His angled attack will eat up left-handed hitters as seen by them posting a .231 wOBA against him while righties were at .322.

I don’t think Manaea will ever be great because he will have those games when he faces an all-righty lineup which will carve him up. Right now he is surviving by being OK against righties and dominating lefties. I don’t think he is just a matchup pitcher, but in the games when he is facing a good all-righty lineup (e.g. Toronto last season), I might sit him.

While he does give up quite a few home runs, he limits the damage by posting a low 2.3 BB/9. Going into next season, I am having some problems putting a value on him in which I really feel comfortable with. I would like to roster him in shallow leagues where I have the option of benching him when needed. In a deeper league, I would have to deal with his rough starts. Overall, I put his talent similar to Gausman’s, and average to good starter depending on league size. So another starter who should be ranked around 40 overall.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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steveymermember
7 years ago

2 pitchers I expect to get a lot of buzz but wasn’t sure what to make of, so thanks!