2016 End of Season Rankings: Starting Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw missed a big chunk of the season yet he was still a fantasy MVP. The real world NL Cy Young award debate was duplicated in fantasy land with Max Scherzer and Kershaw comfortably leading Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, and Madison Bumgarner. What’s more valuable, Scherzer’s quantity or Kershaw’s quality? Our auction calculator says quantity by $1.50.

In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.

For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.

Although I provided actual fantasy stats in past versions, I opted to list the monetary value of each stat for pitchers.

2016 End of Season Rankings: Starting Pitchers
Rank Player IP mW mSV mERA mWHIP mSO PTS aPOS Dollars
1 Max Scherzer 228 $6.60 -$1.60 $2.40 $7.30 $8.70 $23.40 $10.00 $34.40
2 Clayton Kershaw 149 $1.80 -$1.60 $8.00 $11.10 $2.50 $21.90 $10.00 $32.90
3 Jon Lester 202 $6.00 -$1.60 $5.60 $4.60 $3.90 $18.60 $10.00 $29.60
4 Kyle Hendricks 190 $4.20 -$1.60 $7.30 $5.70 $2.40 $18.10 $10.00 $29.10
5 Madison Bumgarner 226 $3.60 -$1.60 $4.00 $4.90 $6.90 $17.90 $10.00 $28.90
6 Justin Verlander 227 $4.20 -$1.60 $1.70 $5.80 $7.10 $17.20 $10.00 $28.20
7 Rick Porcello 223 $7.80 -$1.60 $0.90 $5.50 $3.40 $16.10 $10.00 $27.10
8 Corey Kluber 215 $5.40 -$1.60 $0.90 $3.50 $5.60 $13.90 $10.00 $24.90
9 Johnny Cueto 219 $5.40 -$1.60 $3.50 $2.10 $3.90 $13.40 $10.00 $24.40
10 Jose Fernandez 182 $4.20 -$1.60 $2.50 $0.90 $7.00 $13.00 $10.00 $24.10
11 Chris Sale 226 $4.80 -$1.60 -$0.60 $4.40 $5.90 $12.90 $10.00 $23.90
12 Jake Arrieta 197 $5.40 -$1.60 $1.10 $2.20 $3.50 $10.60 $10.00 $21.60
13 Noah Syndergaard 183 $3.00 -$1.60 $4.10 -$0.10 $5.10 $10.50 $10.00 $21.60
14 Rich Hill 110 $1.80 -$1.60 $4.30 $2.90 $0.10 $7.50 $10.00 $18.50
15 Tanner Roark 210 $4.20 -$1.60 $3.10 -$0.80 $2.50 $7.40 $10.00 $18.40
16 Masahiro Tanaka 199 $3.00 -$1.60 $1.30 $2.50 $2.10 $7.30 $10.00 $18.30
17 J.A. Happ 195 $6.60 -$1.60 $0.50 -$0.70 $2.00 $6.90 $10.00 $17.90
18 Aaron Sanchez 192 $3.60 -$1.60 $1.70 -$0.60 $1.90 $5.10 $10.00 $16.10
19 John Lackey 188 $1.20 -$1.60 -$0.60 $3.00 $2.90 $5.00 $10.00 $16.10
20 Stephen Strasburg 147 $3.60 -$1.60 -$1.70 $1.10 $3.10 $4.50 $10.00 $15.50
21 Kenta Maeda 175 $4.20 -$1.60 -$1.40 $0.20 $2.90 $4.40 $10.00 $15.40
22 Carlos Martinez 195 $4.20 -$1.60 $1.50 -$2.60 $2.60 $4.10 $10.00 $15.10
23 Jose Quintana 208 $2.40 -$1.60 $0.40 -$0.50 $3.00 $3.70 $10.00 $14.80
24 Julio Teheran 188 -$1.20 -$1.60 $0.40 $3.20 $2.20 $3.00 $10.00 $14.00
25 Christopher Devenski 108 -$3.00 -$1.30 $4.10 $4.40 -$1.30 $2.80 $10.00 $13.90
26 Danny Duffy 179 $1.80 -$1.60 -$1.50 $0.20 $3.40 $2.20 $10.00 $13.30
27 Michael Fulmer 159 $1.20 -$1.60 $1.10 $0.80 $0.30 $1.80 $10.00 $12.90
28 Drew Pomeranz 170 $1.20 -$1.60 -$0.40 -$1.10 $3.30 $1.40 $10.00 $12.40
29 David Price 230 $4.80 -$1.60 -$5.70 -$2.20 $5.60 $0.90 $10.00 $11.90
30 Carlos Carrasco 146 $1.20 -$1.60 -$0.30 $0.00 $1.30 $0.60 $10.00 $11.60
31 David Phelps 86 -$1.20 -$0.60 $2.80 $0.00 -$0.70 $0.20 $10.00 $11.30
32 Marco Estrada 176 $0.00 -$1.60 -$1.30 $0.90 $2.10 $0.20 $10.00 $11.20
33 Cole Hamels 200 $3.60 -$1.60 -$0.40 -$5.60 $4.10 $0.00 $10.00 $11.00
34 Junior Guerra 121 $0.00 -$1.60 $1.80 $0.40 -$1.50 -$0.90 $10.00 $10.10
35 Jerad Eickhoff 197 $1.20 -$1.60 -$2.60 -$0.40 $2.20 -$1.20 $10.00 $9.80
36 Bartolo Colon 191 $3.60 -$1.60 -$1.10 -$2.20 $0.00 -$1.20 $10.00 $9.80
37 Dan Straily 191 $3.00 -$1.60 -$3.30 -$1.30 $1.90 -$1.20 $10.00 $9.80
38 Jeremy Hellickson 189 $1.80 -$1.60 -$2.90 -$0.10 $1.50 -$1.30 $10.00 $9.70
39 Jason Hammel 166 $3.60 -$1.60 -$3.30 -$1.80 $0.90 -$2.10 $10.00 $8.90
40 Jacob deGrom 148 -$1.20 -$1.60 $1.10 -$1.40 $0.90 -$2.20 $10.00 $8.80
41 Steven Wright 156 $2.40 -$1.60 -$0.40 -$2.70 $0.00 -$2.30 $10.00 $8.70
42 Yu Darvish 100 -$1.20 -$1.60 -$0.50 $0.50 $0.30 -$2.50 $10.00 $8.50
43 Ian Kennedy 195 $1.20 -$1.60 -$2.80 -$2.60 $3.20 -$2.60 $10.00 $8.40
44 Jake Odorizzi 187 $0.60 -$1.60 -$2.80 -$1.60 $2.20 -$3.20 $10.00 $7.80
45 Jeff Samardzija 203 $1.80 -$1.60 -$3.80 -$1.90 $2.20 -$3.20 $10.00 $7.80
46 Steven Matz 132 $0.00 -$1.60 -$0.60 -$1.40 $0.10 -$3.60 $10.00 $7.40
47 Chris Tillman 172 $4.20 -$1.60 -$3.00 -$4.10 $0.70 -$3.70 $10.00 $7.30
48 Raisel Iglesias 78 -$3.60 -$0.20 $1.90 $0.10 -$2.50 -$4.20 $10.00 $6.80
49 Chris Archer 201 $0.00 -$1.60 -$5.20 -$3.30 $5.90 -$4.30 $10.00 $6.80
50 Mike Montgomery 100 -$3.00 -$1.60 $2.50 -$0.40 -$2.00 -$4.40 $10.00 $6.60
51 Anthony DeSclafani 123 $0.00 -$1.60 -$0.10 -$1.50 -$1.20 -$4.40 $10.00 $6.60
52 Ervin Santana 181 -$1.20 -$1.60 -$0.70 -$2.30 $1.20 -$4.60 $10.00 $6.50
53 Kevin Gausman 179 $0.00 -$1.60 -$2.20 -$4.20 $2.60 -$5.40 $10.00 $5.60
54 Danny Salazar 137 $1.20 -$1.60 -$2.90 -$4.70 $1.90 -$6.00 $10.00 $5.00
55 Jameson Taillon 104 -$2.40 -$1.60 -$0.40 $0.60 -$2.40 -$6.10 $10.00 $4.90
56 Matt Shoemaker 160 $0.00 -$1.60 -$3.40 -$2.10 $0.90 -$6.20 $10.00 $4.80
57 Alex Reyes 46 -$3.00 -$1.30 $2.70 -$0.60 -$4.20 -$6.40 $10.00 $4.60
58 Seth Lugo 64 -$2.40 -$1.60 $1.30 $0.60 -$4.60 -$6.70 $10.00 $4.40
59 Zach Davies 163 $1.20 -$1.60 -$4.00 -$2.90 $0.40 -$6.80 $10.00 $4.20
60 Matt Moore 198 $2.40 -$1.60 -$5.60 -$5.00 $2.80 -$6.90 $10.00 $4.10
61 Sean Manaea 144 -$1.20 -$1.60 -$3.00 -$1.10 -$0.20 -$7.10 $10.00 $4.00
62 Ivan Nova 162 $1.80 -$1.30 -$5.00 -$3.00 $0.00 -$7.50 $10.00 $3.50
63 Josh Tomlin 174 $2.40 -$1.60 -$6.70 -$1.20 -$0.50 -$7.70 $10.00 $3.30
64 Colby Lewis 116 -$1.80 -$1.60 -$1.80 $0.40 -$3.00 -$7.80 $10.00 $3.20
65 Joe Ross 105 -$1.20 -$1.60 -$0.60 -$2.90 -$1.90 -$8.20 $10.00 $2.80
66 Hisashi Iwakuma 199 $4.20 -$1.60 -$5.80 -$6.20 $1.10 -$8.30 $10.00 $2.70
67 Felix Hernandez 153 $1.20 -$1.60 -$2.90 -$4.80 -$0.30 -$8.40 $10.00 $2.70
68 Zack Greinke 158 $2.40 -$1.60 -$6.00 -$3.60 $0.40 -$8.40 $10.00 $2.60
69 Vince Velasquez 131 -$0.60 -$1.60 -$3.80 -$4.10 $1.40 -$8.80 $10.00 $2.20
70 Jon Gray 168 $0.60 -$1.60 -$7.70 -$3.30 $3.20 -$8.80 $10.00 $2.20
71 Jharel Cotton 29 -$4.20 -$1.60 $1.10 $1.70 -$5.80 -$8.90 $10.00 $2.20
72 Taijuan Walker 134 -$0.60 -$1.60 -$4.40 -$2.10 -$0.50 -$9.20 $10.00 $1.90
73 Robert Gsellman 44 -$3.00 -$1.60 $1.20 -$1.10 -$4.80 -$9.20 $10.00 $1.80
74 Wade LeBlanc 62 -$3.00 -$1.10 -$1.10 $0.20 -$4.30 -$9.20 $10.00 $1.80
75 Trevor Bauer 190 $1.80 -$1.60 -$6.50 -$5.40 $2.30 -$9.40 $10.00 $1.60
76 Tyler Anderson 114 -$2.40 -$1.60 -$1.10 -$2.80 -$1.60 -$9.50 $10.00 $1.50
77 James Paxton 121 -$1.80 -$1.60 -$2.20 -$3.30 -$0.60 -$9.50 $10.00 $1.50
78 Ariel Miranda 58 -$2.40 -$1.60 -$1.20 $0.30 -$4.70 -$9.60 $10.00 $1.50
79 Matt Andriese 127 -$0.60 -$1.30 -$4.90 -$1.70 -$1.00 -$9.60 $10.00 $1.40
80 Dylan Bundy 109 $0.60 -$1.60 -$2.90 -$4.50 -$1.30 -$9.70 $10.00 $1.40
81 CC Sabathia 179 $0.00 -$1.60 -$4.00 -$5.50 $1.40 -$9.70 $10.00 $1.30
82 Erasmo Ramirez 90 -$1.20 -$1.10 -$1.60 -$2.20 -$3.60 -$9.70 $10.00 $1.30
83 Tyler Chatwood 158 $1.80 -$1.60 -$3.30 -$6.20 -$0.60 -$9.90 $10.00 $1.10
84 Juan Nicasio 118 $0.60 -$1.60 -$5.00 -$4.70 $0.60 -$10.00 $10.00 $1.00
85 Miguel Gonzalez 135 -$2.40 -$1.60 -$2.20 -$2.10 -$1.80 -$10.00 $10.00 $1.00
86 Lance McCullers 81 -$1.80 -$1.60 $0.10 -$5.60 -$1.20 -$10.10 $10.00 $0.90
87 Mike Foltynewicz 123 $0.00 -$1.60 -$4.40 -$3.30 -$0.90 -$10.20 $10.00 $0.80
88 Alec Asher 27 -$4.20 -$1.60 $0.90 $0.90 -$6.40 -$10.40 $10.00 $0.70
89 Ty Blach 17 -$4.80 -$1.60 $1.30 $1.20 -$6.50 -$10.50 $10.00 $0.50
90 Brandon Finnegan 172 $0.60 -$1.60 -$4.20 -$6.40 $1.00 -$10.60 $10.00 $0.40
91 Carlos Rodon 165 $0.00 -$1.60 -$4.40 -$7.10 $2.30 -$10.80 $10.00 $0.20
92 Julio Urias 77 -$2.40 -$1.60 -$0.30 -$4.10 -$2.40 -$10.90 $10.00 $0.10
93 Joe Musgrove 62 -$3.00 -$1.60 -$1.70 -$0.70 -$4.00 -$11.00 $10.00 $0.00
94 Adam Conley 133 -$0.60 -$1.60 -$2.70 -$6.00 -$0.20 -$11.00 $10.00 $0.00
95 Daniel Norris 69 -$3.00 -$1.60 -$0.30 -$3.10 -$3.10 -$11.10 $10.00 -$0.10
96 Ross Stripling 100 -$2.40 -$1.60 -$2.40 -$2.00 -$3.00 -$11.30 $10.00 -$0.30
97 Chris Rusin 84 -$3.60 -$1.60 -$1.40 -$1.50 -$3.30 -$11.30 $10.00 -$0.30
98 Luis Cessa 70 -$3.00 -$1.60 -$2.60 $0.50 -$4.50 -$11.30 $10.00 -$0.30
99 Rubby de la Rosa 50 -$3.00 -$1.60 -$1.80 -$0.90 -$4.10 -$11.40 $10.00 -$0.40
100 Tim Adleman 69 -$3.00 -$1.60 -$1.80 -$0.80 -$4.50 -$11.70 $10.00 -$0.70
101 Scott Kazmir 136 $0.60 -$1.60 -$6.00 -$5.00 $0.40 -$11.70 $10.00 -$0.70
102 Scott Feldman 77 -$1.20 -$1.60 -$1.90 -$3.10 -$4.00 -$11.70 $10.00 -$0.70
103 Garrett Richards 34 -$4.80 -$1.60 $1.00 -$1.20 -$5.20 -$11.70 $10.00 -$0.70
104 Collin McHugh 184 $2.40 -$1.60 -$6.80 -$8.50 $2.80 -$11.70 $10.00 -$0.70
105 Gio Gonzalez 177 $1.20 -$1.60 -$7.90 -$6.10 $2.40 -$11.90 $10.00 -$0.90
106 Alex Wood 60 -$4.80 -$1.60 -$1.00 -$1.20 -$3.40 -$12.00 $10.00 -$1.00
107 Dallas Keuchel 168 $0.00 -$1.60 -$7.40 -$4.00 $0.90 -$12.10 $10.00 -$1.10
108 Marcus Stroman 204 $0.00 -$1.60 -$7.70 -$5.00 $2.20 -$12.10 $10.00 -$1.10
109 Jake Buchanan 6 -$4.80 -$1.60 $0.40 $0.50 -$6.90 -$12.40 $10.00 -$1.40
110 Ricky Nolasco 197 -$0.60 -$1.60 -$7.80 -$3.40 $0.90 -$12.50 $10.00 -$1.50
111 Aaron Nola 111 -$1.80 -$1.60 -$5.80 -$3.10 -$0.40 -$12.60 $10.00 -$1.60
112 Jason Vargas 12 -$5.40 -$1.60 $0.40 $0.50 -$6.50 -$12.60 $10.00 -$1.60
113 Kendall Graveman 186 $0.60 -$1.60 -$5.40 -$5.20 -$1.10 -$12.60 $10.00 -$1.60
114 Chad Kuhl 70 -$2.40 -$1.60 -$2.30 -$2.20 -$4.10 -$12.60 $10.00 -$1.60
115 Matt Boyd 97 -$1.80 -$1.60 -$4.20 -$2.50 -$2.50 -$12.70 $10.00 -$1.70
116 Robbie Erlin 15 -$4.80 -$1.60 -$0.50 $0.40 -$6.40 -$12.80 $10.00 -$1.80
117 Gerrit Cole 116 -$1.20 -$1.60 -$2.40 -$5.90 -$1.60 -$12.80 $10.00 -$1.80
118 Zach Neal 70 -$4.20 -$1.10 -$2.30 $0.40 -$5.60 -$12.80 $10.00 -$1.80
119 Brad Peacock 31 -$5.40 -$1.60 -$0.50 $0.20 -$5.50 -$12.90 $10.00 -$1.90
120 Blake Snell 89 -$1.80 -$1.60 -$0.80 -$7.40 -$1.60 -$13.20 $10.00 -$2.20
121 Nick Tropeano 68 -$3.60 -$1.60 -$0.70 -$4.00 -$3.30 -$13.20 $10.00 -$2.20
122 Andrew Triggs 56 -$4.80 -$1.60 -$2.00 -$0.80 -$4.00 -$13.30 $10.00 -$2.30
123 Nathan Eovaldi 124 $0.00 -$1.60 -$6.40 -$3.60 -$1.70 -$13.30 $10.00 -$2.30
124 Mike Fiers 168 $1.20 -$1.60 -$7.10 -$6.30 $0.40 -$13.40 $10.00 -$2.40
125 Charlie Morton 17 -$4.80 -$1.60 -$0.60 -$0.60 -$6.00 -$13.60 $10.00 -$2.60
126 Kendry Flores 3 -$5.40 -$1.60 $0.30 -$0.10 -$7.10 -$13.80 $10.00 -$2.80
127 Vance Worley 86 -$4.20 -$1.30 -$0.80 -$3.50 -$4.00 -$13.90 $10.00 -$2.90
128 Chase Anderson 151 $0.00 -$1.60 -$5.90 -$6.00 -$0.40 -$13.90 $10.00 -$2.90
129 Hector Santiago 182 $2.40 -$1.60 -$8.90 -$6.80 $0.90 -$14.00 $10.00 -$3.00
130 Drew Smyly 175 -$1.20 -$1.60 -$9.70 -$3.80 $2.20 -$14.10 $10.00 -$3.10
131 Tyler Skaggs 49 -$3.60 -$1.60 -$1.60 -$3.10 -$4.30 -$14.20 $10.00 -$3.10
132 Chad Green 45 -$4.20 -$1.30 -$2.30 -$2.10 -$4.20 -$14.20 $10.00 -$3.20
133 Andrew Heaney 6 -$5.40 -$1.60 -$0.60 $0.00 -$6.70 -$14.30 $10.00 -$3.30
134 Brandon McCarthy 40 -$4.20 -$1.60 -$2.30 -$1.60 -$4.70 -$14.30 $10.00 -$3.30
135 Paul Clemens 71 -$3.00 -$1.60 -$1.90 -$3.80 -$4.10 -$14.40 $10.00 -$3.40
136 Reynaldo Lopez 44 -$2.40 -$1.60 -$2.50 -$3.20 -$4.80 -$14.50 $10.00 -$3.50
137 Bryan Mitchell 25 -$4.80 -$1.60 $0.00 -$1.60 -$6.50 -$14.50 $10.00 -$3.50
138 Albert Suarez 84 -$3.60 -$1.60 -$2.90 -$2.40 -$4.10 -$14.60 $10.00 -$3.60
139 Michael Pineda 175 -$1.80 -$1.60 -$9.40 -$6.30 $4.40 -$14.60 $10.00 -$3.60
140 R.A. Dickey 169 $0.60 -$1.60 -$7.00 -$6.60 -$0.10 -$14.60 $10.00 -$3.60
141 Lucas Harrell 47 -$3.60 -$1.60 -$1.50 -$3.00 -$5.10 -$14.80 $10.00 -$3.80
142 Eduardo Rodriguez 107 -$3.60 -$1.60 -$5.30 -$2.80 -$1.50 -$14.80 $10.00 -$3.80
143 Jordan Zimmermann 105 $0.00 -$1.60 -$5.80 -$4.10 -$3.40 -$14.90 $10.00 -$3.90
144 Jaime Garcia 171 $0.60 -$1.60 -$8.30 -$6.90 $1.30 -$14.90 $10.00 -$3.90
145 Jose De Leon 17 -$4.20 -$1.60 -$1.80 -$1.10 -$6.30 -$15.00 $10.00 -$4.00
146 Tyler Glasnow 23 -$5.40 -$1.60 -$0.80 -$1.50 -$5.80 -$15.10 $10.00 -$4.00
147 A.J. Cole 38 -$4.80 -$1.60 -$2.50 -$1.30 -$4.90 -$15.10 $10.00 -$4.10
148 Roberto Hernandez 9 -$4.80 -$1.60 -$1.50 -$0.60 -$6.80 -$15.30 $10.00 -$4.20
149 Nick Tepesch 4 -$5.40 -$1.60 -$1.10 -$0.40 -$6.90 -$15.40 $10.00 -$4.40
150 Adrian Sampson 4 -$5.40 -$1.60 -$0.80 -$0.70 -$7.00 -$15.50 $10.00 -$4.50
151 Joe Kelly 40 -$3.00 -$1.60 -$2.60 -$3.90 -$4.40 -$15.50 $10.00 -$4.50
152 Mat Latos 70 -$1.20 -$1.60 -$3.90 -$4.20 -$4.80 -$15.60 $10.00 -$4.60
153 Adam Wainwright 198 $2.40 -$1.60 -$9.30 -$9.00 $1.90 -$15.60 $10.00 -$4.60
154 Wei-Yin Chen 123 -$2.40 -$1.60 -$7.20 -$2.90 -$1.50 -$15.60 $10.00 -$4.60
155 Rob Whalen 24 -$4.80 -$1.60 -$2.80 -$0.70 -$5.70 -$15.70 $10.00 -$4.70
156 A.J. Griffin 119 -$1.20 -$1.60 -$7.30 -$4.40 -$1.10 -$15.70 $10.00 -$4.70
157 Mike Leake 176 $0.00 -$1.60 -$8.60 -$5.40 -$0.10 -$15.70 $10.00 -$4.70
158 Clay Buchholz 139 -$0.60 -$1.60 -$7.20 -$4.40 -$1.90 -$15.80 $10.00 -$4.80
159 Joe Wieland 5 -$5.40 -$1.60 -$1.30 -$0.60 -$6.90 -$15.80 $10.00 -$4.80

While 2016 wasn’t the worst case scenario for Kershaw, it’s heartening to see that things can go wrong and still result in first round value. Kershaw’s performance was on par with the top hitters in the league. That’s partly due to me setting a slightly unusual 65/35 hitter-pitcher split. I did that to tinker with the positional adjustments, but it also distorts the relationship between hitter and pitcher value. A more typical 70/30 split results in the top hitters outperforming the top pitchers by about $12.

Most of the replacement level pitchers only worked for partial seasons. As we’ve discussed, the calculator can be rather harsh to part-time players. Musgrove was precisely replacement level while Rodon was the closest thing to an everyday $0 starter. You would have been better off with multiple Musgroves over one Rodon.

With starting pitchers, we use the term “breakout” loosely. Many of the newly valuable pitchers rose due to a big win total. I’m looking at you Porcello, Hendricks, Happ, and Roark. While those pitchers did improve considerably, much of their fantasy value was in the most difficult category to predict. Other surprise performances include Sanchez, Hill, Duffy, Fulmer, and Pomeranz.

Devenski and Phelps were the best swingmen. Every year, there are a couple not-really-starters who perform well above replacement level. In my experience, these guys tend to be very volatile in future seasons. Think Yusmeiro Petit.

A replacement level pitcher was worth $0. A league average pitcher returned $10. Lo and behold, the $10 pitchers are a Who’s Who list of the merely adequate. Guerra, Eickhoff, Colon, Straily, and Hellickson were within .50 cents of average.

No pitcher was more disappointing than Keuchel. Unless it was Cole. Or Archer. Or maybe Stroman, Nola, Pineda, Zimmermann, and Wainwright. With apologies to the latter quintet, we were always very aware of the risk in selecting them.

The same was not true of Keuchel, Cole, and Archer. Keuchel was supposed to be the next Cliff Lee – or so I said on multiple occasions. Cole had improved in multiple consecutive seasons. He looked like a monster in the making. Archer proved himself to be one of the most eloquent speakers on the subject of pitching during the 2015 postseason. The thoughtfulness and the breakout 2015 season fooled some of us into thinking he was a hard throwing Maddux.





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mjlewis
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mjlewis

To be fair to the guy, of the five pitchers you listed as being merely adequate, Guerra had 2/3 the starts and IP of the others. If you extrapolated his numbers out to 30 starts instead of 20, which of course is not exactly a safe assumption, he’s worth about $16.60.