Archive for Roto

Ottoneu founder/creator Niv Shah once described Ottoneu as an economic system that just happens to be built for fantasy sports.  The entire platform is finely tuned to bring the stats, rules, and interface together to provide an excellent overall gameplay experience perfectly suited for baseball nerds.

Nerds often like math (which is why baseball nerds love sabermetrics), so let’s spend some time digging into some of the math behind the game of Ottoneu.  This will be a blend of benchmarks and strategy, but overall the goal here is to create a reference for Ottoneu owners looking to win their leagues.

Ottoneu Basics

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About four years ago, Matt Swartz helped me find that strikeout and walk rates posted during spring training for starting pitchers do have some predictive value. It’s very small, of course, but it’s there, and using the data improved the pre-season projection. The findings were validated when Dan Rosenheck completed an exhaustive study and discovered the same thing a year ago. It’s not the surface stats that matter, which we knew, but the underlying skill metrics, like strikeout and walk rates, that hold some value. It’s not much value, but it’s not nothing like some of us may have thought.

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At last, it’s the final Pod’s Picks and Pans, as we finish things off with catcher. In the past, there have been years I haven’t even published a catcher version because there just wasn’t much disagreement. Which is strange because often times we all know the top tier, which is Buster Posey first, a couple of guys in the next couple of slots, and then a massive tier where we could make a reasonable case for a slew of guys to finish the season at said ranking at season’s end. Luckily, this year there does seem to be some disagreement worth discussing. Here are the updated consensus rankings.

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You’re not sick of reading about my Picks and Pans yet, right? Of course not, you love them! We’re winding down the series and today we move along to the starting pitchers. As you no doubt have argued in the comments, my valuations take innings into consideration. It has to. We’re valuing the player’s contributions to our team. This is from a strict dollar value perspective. This is different than where I might suggest drafting the player in a snake draft, as I’d be more willing to take a lower ranked pitcher projected for better ratios than a higher ranked one with worse ratios, but more innings.

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I must be getting old. Or maybe I’m just learning. But I have a confession to make. I’m starting to change my line of thinking as it relates to fantasy baseball player valuations and team construction.

I’ve been obsessed with the process of finding projections, calculating dollar values, and relying almost exclusively on those inputs to guide my draft process. To make matters worse, after already having those thoughts entrenched in my brain, I then read Larry Schechter’s book, Winning Fantasy Baseball.

My process and beliefs sounded a heck of a lot like the ones Larry uses. And he’s arguably the greatest rotisserie player of all time. “All these chumps not calculating player dollar values out to the penny are doing it wrong“, I thought.

Well, I’m starting to soften on that stance. And here’s why… Read the rest of this entry »

3/24/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Strategy Section

• We dissect and review Jason’s AL Tout Wars Team for the bulk of the show and finish with some musings from the NL which he sat in on as the chat operator.
• Jason’s written review for Rotowire
• Tout Wars Auction Boards
• How to Create a Position Cheatsheet by Tanner Bell

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As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think!

Approximately 80 minutes of joyous analysis.

I’ve been thinking about Wade Davis and Joe Kelly lately. Davis started 29 games in back to back seasons for the Rays in 2010 and 2011, striking out fewer than six batters per nine and putting up FIPs and xFIPs in the neighborhood of 4.70. The next season, the Rays moved Davis to the bullpen where he struck out more than 11 batters per nine and produced a 2.78 FIP. After trading for Davis that offseason, the Royals tried Davis at starter again for much of the 2013 season with poor results, and they’ve put him the bullpen ever since, where he’s again become dominant.

Davis and Kelly aren’t the same pitcher. Kelly throws much harder than Davis did as a starter and has a four-pitch repertoire that includes a change-up. However, both pitchers use a four-seamer, a slider or cutter, and a curveball and have most of their success with their fastballs. Meanwhile, Kelly shows similar and similarly underwhelming strikeout rates as Davis did as a starter. Kelly has had FIPs and xFIPs over 4.00 in each of his four seasons. That’s 461.2 innings of mediocre results, but the Red Sox seem to be planning to rely on Kelly as a starter again in 2016.

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Let’s go picking and panning once again, this time at the second base position. The updated RotoGraphs consensus rankings, from which I am comparing mine to the rest of the gang’s, are here.

For the second base position, my Picks will only include those in my top 20 and my Pans will only include those in the Consensus top 20.

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3/23/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Andre Ethier out 10-14 weeks w/broken tibia (3:14)
• A.J. Pollock bum elbow, not expected to need DL (10:45)
• Tyler Naquin on track to start in CF (12:24)
• Kevin Gausman shoulder tendinitis (16:20)

Strategy Section

• Spring Standouts – Changing Your Outlook?
  • Keon Broxton (.914 OPS, 6 SB) (19:45)
  • Maikel Franco (7 HR) (25:25)
  • Danny Valencia (5 HR, 1.471 OPS) (32:27)
  • Jean Segura (.525 AVG, 5 XBH) (36:24)
  • Daniel Nava (.500 AVG, angling for starting role in LAA) (42:42)
• Eno’s updated ranks
  • Biggest movers
    • Matt Moore (49:42)
    • Vincent Velasquez (54:08)
    • Adam Conley (55:14)
    • Kyle Gibson (56:36)
    • Wade Miley (59:40)
  • Biggest fallers
    • Jeff Samardzija (1:05:40)
    • Rich Hill (1:08:42)
    • Yu Darvish (50:58)
    • Scott Kazmir (1:16:56)
    • Julio Teheran (1:18:14)

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Here we go! It is time for the first installment of America’s favorite game: AL Outfielder Tiers! This is my first attempt at doing this, so while I don’t expect any sympathy, please don’t crush my hopes and spirit if I forget a name. Remember, ranks and tiers tend to be subjective and we are in this together for the next six to seven months. Read the rest of this entry »