2016 Pod’s Picks & Pans: Catcher
At last, it’s the final Pod’s Picks and Pans, as we finish things off with catcher. In the past, there have been years I haven’t even published a catcher version because there just wasn’t much disagreement. Which is strange because often times we all know the top tier, which is Buster Posey first, a couple of guys in the next couple of slots, and then a massive tier where we could make a reasonable case for a slew of guys to finish the season at said ranking at season’s end. Luckily, this year there does seem to be some disagreement worth discussing. Here are the updated consensus rankings.
| PLAYER | Mike | Consensus | Diff |
| Matt Wieters | 6 | 12 | -6 |
| Salvador Perez | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 11 | 15 | -4 |
So, Matt Wieters. Obviously, if we published an updated updated set of rankings, he would no longer be my sixth ranked guy. His elbow issues cropped up soon after these rankings went live and I worry about how that both affects his playing time and his performance. Even if he avoids the DL to start the year, he might receive more rest than usual. So he’s become a real risk. But he did appear here because I was bullish on his prospects for a rebound. Let’s ignore the injury risk for a moment and focus on what he did last year. His ISO plummeted, but his batted ball distance hit a new career high, reaching 300 feet, and jumping above 290 feet for the first time. I love a healthy Wieters, I just don’t know what a bum-elbowed Wieters will do.
Ehhh, two ranking spots better for Salvador Perez isn’t much. And it’s really just one ranker who’s the outlier here, but rather than skip a name and give you just two players, I kept him in. His value comes from a strong contact rate and lots and lots of playing time. About that HR/FB rate that jumped into the double digits for just the second time? His batted ball distance validates the surge, as it hopped to a career high. He’s still just 25, so the power spike should mostly be sustained.
Finally, J.T. Realmuto is precisely the type of player I was hoping to uncover with this series. In his first full season last year, he displayed a nice combination of both power and speed. Yes, speed. Remember Jason Kendall, providing that rare speed at the catcher position? Think of Realmuto as the poor man’s version. His batted ball distance confirms that his power isn’t very exciting, but he should benefit a bit from the closer fences in Miami. He also has some batting average upside after a below average .285 BABIP, despite a nice batted ball profile.
I was a big fan of Russell Martin heading into 2015, as he was slated to hit second in what we all knew was going to be a monster lineup, and he moved from a pitcher’s park to one of the most hitter friendly in baseball. It was the right call. But now, he’s getting too much love. He’s not going to come anywhere near a 20.7% HR/FB rate again and this time around he’s slated to open the season hitting eighth. He certainly has the potential to move up in the order, but he batted fifth or sixth the vast majority of the time last year. So there’s little chance his lineup slots will be as favorable this year as last year. It’s going to make it impossible for him to duplicate the 150 RBI and runs he posted last year.
Look, I’m a fan of the potential of what a healthy Yasmani Grandal could do. But health is something he has struggled with. Sure enough, he’s already dealing with a forearm issue! This is in addition to coming off shoulder surgery after the season, which is notorious for sapping a hitter’s power. So the power is now a question mark, and he’s already proven to be a batting average drain thanks to a below average BABIP throughout his career. One of these years, the big breakout is going to come. I just don’t think it’s this one.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Pod, how long do you think Posey will continue his streak at #1? Is the closest threat Schwarber? Also, what’s your read on D’Arnaud? Just a middling backstop stick despite the injuries mitigating a full season of at bats?
Posey has such a huge advantage because of his batting average and the fact he essentially plays more than every other catcher. Schwarber is going to have a tough time because of the average, but it’s possible he makes up for it if he can hit 30 homers.
I really like TDA, but I don’t like his lineup spot and obviously his injury history. He’s a better choice in a shallow league where replacements aren’t terrible.
Swihart ‘could’ have similar production Realmuto for you. Similar power, slightly less speed, but a chance at a better average.
Agreed, but I guess we pretty much agreed on his ranking.
first time I’ve ever seen the words “poor man’s Jason Kendall” (paraphrased) before.
Kendall was great in fantasy! 10+ homers and 20+ steals from a catcher!
And the .300 + AVG and 600 PA.
It’s interesting you raise the HR/FB% for Martin. If you look at his rate, it’s been all over the place in his career, and it seems park factors play a (potentially) big role in that. With the Dodgers/Pirates Martin’s HR/FB% peaks at 13.9%, but with the Yankees/Jays it’s 15.9%, 19.9%, and 20.7%, which suggests to me that there may be more HR/FB upside than his career numbers would suggest. Looking at RHH HR park factors from 2015 Toronto and NYY have the 6th and 9th best park factors, while the Dodgers and Pirates rank 17th and 30th, respectively. Given that, I think Martin can sustain his HR production.
Well sure, which is why I was bullish on him last year. But he’s 33 and you can’t just justify any HR/FB rate just because he’s in a HR boosting park. If he posted a 35%, you wouldn’t say the same thing. I think what he posted last year was his upper limit and it would be silly not to expect regression.
No, but from the tone of your comment it sounds as though you are expecting regression to 12%-13%, as opposed to say 16%-17%. Yes power falls off a cliff at some point, but at 33 I’m not sure he’s there yet. Just my $0.02, but I think he sniffs 20 HR, which to me is acceptable from a C going in the 10th rd (123 ADP).
Nope, projection is 16%.
Are you sure you did Picks & Pans for 3B and RP? I can’t find those in you history.
Nope. The 3B rankings were never posted! If they do get posted, I’ll do those. Also, the RP rankings are handled by the group of guys that cover RP during the year. The typical crew didn’t rank them.
Grandal’s big breakout came already! And then he got hurt. And then he played when he absolutely shouldn’t have. But he did break out. If the shoulder injury sapped his power, that may have been the best we’ll ever see of him.
You’re basically right. Last year’s first couple of months is exactly what we all think he’s capable of.