2016 Spring Starting Pitcher K% Surgers & Breakout Candidates

About four years ago, Matt Swartz helped me find that strikeout and walk rates posted during spring training for starting pitchers do have some predictive value. It’s very small, of course, but it’s there, and using the data improved the pre-season projection. The findings were validated when Dan Rosenheck completed an exhaustive study and discovered the same thing a year ago. It’s not the surface stats that matter, which we knew, but the underlying skill metrics, like strikeout and walk rates, that hold some value. It’s not much value, but it’s not nothing like some of us may have thought.

So it has become an annual tradition of mine to sort through the starting pitcher strikeout rate leaders during the spring and identify some interesting names that have enjoyed a surge compared to their projection. These are the guys you might want to go the extra buck on.

2016 Spring SP K% Surgers

Name	TBF	SO	K%
Juan Nicasio	59	24	40.7%
Mike Leake	65	19	29.2%
Patrick Corbin	85	24	28.2%
Hector Santiago	98	26	26.5%
Kyle Hendricks	72	19	26.4%
Kyle Gibson	74	19	25.7%

Juan Nicasio has perhaps received the most fanfare for his spring performance, and for good reason. He’s far and away the spring strikeout rate leader. Of course, this has come in just 15 innings and he has faced the fewest batters of anyone on the list. But as a starter, he has never exceeded a 21% strikeout rate. And as a starter, he had always called Coors Field home. That’s the worst place to call home if you’re a starter. The park is tied for the lowest strikeout park factor in baseball at 95. Simply put, strikeouts go down in the park and balls in play rise. Nicasio was a reliever all of last season, save for one start, and we saw what a change of venue could do. Obviously, his velocity jumped and stuff played up in the relief role, but getting out of Coors had to help as well, as his strikeout rate shot up nearly 10 percentage points.

A couple of weeks ago, Jeff Sullivan dove into what has gotten into Nicasio and what, if any, changes the Pirates pitching staff has made. Only subtle mechanical adjustments, but possible improved pitch location. It’s a new team, so it’s likely there’s an explanation behind the spring surge. We still don’t know whether it’s enough for him to earn a rotation spot, but he’s an intriguing speculation in NL-Only leagues regardless of opening day role. If he wins a rotation spot, I’d even be willing to gamble as my last bench pick in a 12-team mixed league, though that’s dependent on your other options. Moving to a Pirates team with a shift-heavy defense and a pitcher friendly park is a great situation.

Mike Leake’s career high strikeout rate? A measly 18.2%. He has never been above 17% in any other season. His velocity is below average, but he fills up the pitch type boxes by throwing a slider, cutter, curve, and change. Phew! His slider has been fantastic throughout his career, but everything else has stunk. But he has only thrown his slider about 10% of the time. Why? Perhaps throwing it more would drastically reduce its effectiveness. Like Nicasio, Leake finds himself on a new team this year. So it would make sense that the pitching coaches are looking into how to get more out of their offseason acquisition. Sadly, a Google search didn’t result in any news that might explain his spring performance. Since he won’t cost a whole lot at the draft, there might be a little extra profit potential now given the possibility of a strikeout rate spike.

Last year, Patrick Corbin returned from TJ surgery with a bang, posting a 3.44 SIERA and enjoying a career high level of fastball velocity. His strikeout rates have nudged above 20%, so his spring mark in the upper 20% range doesn’t qualify as the type of surge that Nicasio and Leake have experienced. But this is more a validation that he’s good to go and is showing no ill effects from last year’s recovery. Innings might be a concern, but performance shouldn’t be.

I have never been a Hector Santiago fan. His skills have consistently been mediocre, but he has always outperformed his SIERA marks thanks to a low BABIP. His fly ball/pop-up heavy batted ball distribution explains a lot of it, but it’s simply not the type of skill set I like investing in. But this spring, he has apparently changed the grip on his slider, a pitch he has only thrown about 8% of the time during his career. It hasn’t been very good, generating a SwStk% of just 9.4%, which is well below average for the pitch type. Perhaps the slider could explain his increased strikeout ability this spring? I don’t know for sure, but we do have an explanation here. However, his strikeout rates have hovered around the 20% mark like Corbin’s, so this could easily just be a small sample fluke.

Kyle Kendrick Hendricks came out of nowhere in 2014 to post a 2.46 ERA in 13 starts despite a poor strikeout rate, but the regression monster reared its head last year, as his ERA spiked to 3.95, despite a strikeout rate surge. The spring performance helps to validate last year’s strikeout rate surge, which was fueled by his change going from above average at inducing whiffs to elite.

Kyle Gibson has gotten some sleeper buzz, as he featured a ground ball inducing sinker, and an excellent change and slider that induced swings and misses last season. There’s seemingly no explanation about the spring strikeout rate surge, but he owns an excellent foundation from which to breakout from. He already has the high ground ball rate and decent enough control. Unfortunately, he might have to give up some grounders in exchange for more strikeouts, but that would probably be a welcome switch to fantasy owners. Because of the sleeper buzz, he’s probably become a bit more expensive than his 2015 season line would suggest he should. A low strikeout guy with a 4.12 SIERA isn’t very intriguing. But there is still a bit of profit potential here, though he’d need a significant jump in strikeout rate to enjoy a major fantasy breakout.