2016 Pod’s Picks & Pans: Second Base
Let’s go picking and panning once again, this time at the second base position. The updated RotoGraphs consensus rankings, from which I am comparing mine to the rest of the gang’s, are here.
For the second base position, my Picks will only include those in my top 20 and my Pans will only include those in the Consensus top 20.
| PLAYER | Mike | Consensus | Diff |
| Brandon Phillips | 10 | 22 | -12 |
| Matt Carpenter | 4 | 7 | -3 |
| Brett Lawrie | 14 | 23 | -9 |
Here we go again, Pod latching on to a surprising rebound performance in 2015. It’s true that Brandon Phillips shocked the world by swiping 23 bases last year. The last time he had stolen 20+ bags was in 2009! That won’t happen again. But it doesn’t need to. I’m projecting a near identical line to the other systems, with a slightly higher batting average, but offset by fewer steals. I’m actually forecasting some major regression in the latter, down to just nine! And yet, despite this entirely fair projection, somehow there’s a 12 ranking gap between me and the rest of the rankers. I don’t get it. If you forget, Phillips is slated to hit clean up, behind Joey Votto, which means bountiful RBI opportunities.
Wowzer, yet again, here I am being bullish after a player’s obvious career year. What am I thinking?! Funny, I have been so up and down on Matt Carpenter throughout his career. But he is clearly a completely different player now. He set career highs in strikeout rate, fly ball rate, Pull%, Hard%, and batted ball distance. If that doesn’t suggest that he’s sold out for power, nothing will convince you. Whether he’ll do it again this year is anyone’s guess. But even with a healthy dose of regression down to an 11% HR/FB rate (about league average), he’ll still flirt with the 20 homer barrier. And he’s a lock to be a great source of runs scored, while contributing marginally positive value in runs batted in.
Finally, a player I could easily explain and I’m not chasing the big previous season! The optimism for Brett Lawrie stems mostly from the park switch. Yes, the Rogers Centre in Toronto was a top hitter’s park as well, but U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago is even better for right-handed home runs. Beyond that though, his batted ball distance jumped nearly 15 feet to easily set a new career high, and yet, his HR/FB rate actually fell! Blame that on the Oakland Coliseum, as he posted just a 7.9% home HR/FB rate, versus a robust 16.1% mark in away games. I’m projecting his HR/FB rate to jump back up to 14%, which if his health cooperates, would equate to reaching 20 homers for the first time.
| PLAYER | Mike | Consensus | Diff |
| Ian Kinsler | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 16 | 10 | 6 |
| Addison Russell | 27 | 17 | 10 |
| Kolten Wong | 20 | 13 | 7 |
As usual, my projected line for Ian Kinsler is nearly identical to the systems. The difference comes from an extra homer than the highest system forecast, but also one less steal than the lowest. How that results in a gap of four rankings places, I’m not totally sure. However, in this situation, it looks like I merely like some of the guys I placed ahead of him more than the rest. There are only a couple of dollars in value separating Kinsler from fourth ranked guy, so this isn’t as big a discrepancy as it appears. I do have concern about a 33 year old who consistently posts weak batted ball distance marks and requires all of his excellent strikeout rate and 40% fly ball rate to reach double digit homers. Both of those metrics decline due to the aging process, so he could fall off precipitously in a hurry.
I had no idea I was bearish on Dustin Pedroia. If I sound like a broken record, it’s because again my projections aren’t much different from the other systems. Pedroia did post his highest HR/FB rate since 2011, a mark that was more than double his previous season. Perhaps the other rankers think the power spike is more sustainable than I do. His batted ball distance and xHR/FB rate certainly do not validate the mini power surge.
Obviously, I don’t need to discuss Addison Russell again, but I kept him on the list since I wanted to show everyone.
Kolten Wong has a very similar problem to Russell — he’s stuck toward the bottom of the order. Wong does move up thanks to Jhonny Peralta’s injury…to seventh. That should marginally boost his counting stats, and perhaps push him to 18th or 19th in the rankers, rather than 20th. I like his combination of power and speed just like everyone else, but it will be difficult to collect those runs scored and runs batted in at the bottom of the order. Last year, he hit leadoff 234 times, and still only managed to score 71 runs. Outside an injury, he’s highly unlikely to see that many plate appearances at the top again, if any at all.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
I wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt after the first few of these, but at this point, I just don’t see how you can support these takes.
Phillips is 34, going on 35 by midseason, and is the exact player that doesn’t age well. He swings alot on pitches out of the zone, and relies on contact ability to survive….which is the fastest age-declining skill. His numbers last season were buoyed by a .315 BABIP vs his career.294 mark, and he doesn’t walk, so when that BABIP corrects, the AVG corrects and the OBP drops likely to the .310 range, which will impact his Runs and SBs.
Then you have Wong, who’s 2015 stat line is virtually identical to Phillips 8 spots lower?
I was thinking the same thing about Wong. IMO I think Wong’s extra steals will offset Phillips extra RBI + runs. Wong’s upside offsets the possibility of performance risk.
I would personally take 3-5 other players above Phillips, but I can make an argument for Phillips anytime after 10. I don’t see how Zobrist could be ranked lower than Phillips. BA and HR are similar. In steals Phillips is projected for a few more. Even though Phillips hits cleanup Zobrist is on the much better team and should easily outproduce Phillips RBIs. 2 of the 3 guys hitting in front of Phillips have OBP less than .300. Hitting behind Votto is nice but not many singles are going to get him home. Zobrist also has the potential to be moved up in the order.
I think it’s important to note that player values are likely bunched extremely close together. I don’t have my values in front of me, but it’s very possible that the difference between player 10 and 20 is only like $5. That’s not a whole lot, but 10 ranks seems like a lot.
They do seem so close.
Using Phillips are a baseline.
Zobrist a few less steals.
Pedroia less steals higher BA
Rendon higher BA, HR less steals
Walker – More HR less SB
Wong- more steals less BA
kendrick – Less HR, SB, higher BA
Exactly. Then you’re just left with differences in lineup spot and playing time expectations. Rendon is dinged for injury history, and Walker and Wong are platoon risks.
The other big thing is what type of league are the rankings for.
In a deep league the safety of Phillips is worth more. In a 10 or 12 team league the upside of players like Pedrioa, Rendon, Wong, Russell, LeMahieu, Castro, and Harrison are worth more than the safety of Phillips.
The rankings are based on a 12-team mixed league with 1 catcher. They are also based strictly on projected performance, converted into a dollar value. If you want to draft a player earlier due to perceived safety, that’s a strategic personal decision and won’t be reflected in the rankings.
I do agree that in a shallow league, given 2 players of similar value and cost, I would prefer the player with more risk/upside.
Interesting, I thought part of the reason Phillips was high was that he did not have the injury/platoon/performance risks as some of the other guys.
Technically, it is, as all of those factors are accounted for in my projection.
I wonder if, when your rankings differ greatly from others with about the same projected stats, it just means the others know when the projections are dubious? Projection systems don’t seen to take into account previous bad stats due to injury or a pitcher picking up a new pitch, etc. Everyone in a league can see the projections before a draft. I think the winners are probably those who know when to doubt the projections.