One of my Launch Angle Podcast partners, Rob Silver, brought up how if there is a universal DH, the NL pitcher will no longer face ineffective bat-wielding pitchers. Simply, pitchers can’t hit. Last season in 4789 PA, National League pitchers hit for a combined .126/.157/.160. Our own Dan Szymborski continued the discussion to see if dominating pitchers hitting was a repeatable trait. I’m going to go a different route to investigate, using Dan’s information, how a pitcher’s projection would change going to an American League team (effectively including a DH) and this number affects a pitcher ranking.

I’m going to start off saying to not take any of the following information as the gospel truth. I’m trying to achieve a better projection that’ll be closer to the final outcome. Each stat and step in the process can be nitpicked along the way. I’m not even sure if the following method is the best way but it’s a way. I’m trying to move the discussion from “The DH will be a try breaker for me when drafting” (quote from a podcast I heard) to actually putting some number behind the possible changes.

Also, I’m not here to argue on why Jacob deGrom started out as the 8th ranked starter and he’s now 9th. I just collect a projection set. Anyone who uses stats to generate their projections will have their own secret sauce. I have my own. I just need a projection framework and live with it. Here is how I set it up.

I downloaded the 2020 ZiPS projections from here at FanGraphs. I used the ZiPS values since Dan created them and I’ll be using the inter-league adjustments provide in his article.

Then I changed each pitcher’s stats using Dan’s 2019 variables.

Variable: Change

• BB%: +4%
• K%: -5%
• AVG: +.007
• RC/G: +13%

I just adjusted the pitcher’s projected stats by the above values and created a hits estimate from the AVG with few assumptions.

NL pitcher innings projections have two offsetting values that could also be in play. The worse results could lead to fewer innings thrown (i.e. early hook) and the pitcher’s value could drop. On the other hand, the times a pitcher nearing his pitch limit will be replaced by a pinch batter will disappear. One of the two factors will likely dominate

Next, I used the 2019 12-team SGP (Standings Gain Points) formula from The Process to create pitcher valuations. The SGP value is the expected jump in the standings if that pitcher’s stats are added to a team’s stats. Here are results from the final top-40 starting pitcher using the SGP formula and ZiPS projections (I’m not sure why the TJS pitchers are still included but I don’t get paid the big bucks to know such things).

The changes are significant once all three factors (WHIP, ERA, strikeouts) are factored in. While the rank changes by just one or two with the top-10 or so arms, the difference becomes significant around pick 20 with moves of four spots. Maybe this change is a tie-breaker for some owners, but if an owner gains an extra ~1 SGP from all nine pitchers, it becomes nine spots in the standings. I think every owner would take those extra spots.

Just eyeballing the differences, it’s ~0.40 increase in ERA and 0.04 bump in WHIP to go with the 5% drop in strikeouts. The near half run increase in ERA will scare off quite a few owners by itself. Other owners will get blow off the possible changes, but in my current opinion, they will be playing catch up if they ignore them.

Again, don’t take my word for it … I’m still coming to grips with Lance Lynn possibly jumping Patrick Corbin. I could be wrong with these calculations but hopefully, some other analysts will step up and perform the calculations. The possible change in production is likely the biggest valuation change with half the pitchers facing legit MLB hitters instead of the irrelevant pitcher.

After working my way through the first eight rounds of the website ADP draft,  some sites leaned heavy pitcher while others were drafting just hitters. Before continuing the draft, I wanted to determine the split difference for each website. The difference wasn’t as big as I thought considering the results seen to this point in the draft.

Just for reference, I used the ADP data collected at FantasyPros from ESPN, Yahoo, NFBC, CBS, FanTrax, and Real Time Sports (RTS). Next, I assumed people were drafting a 12-team league with 23 players (14 hitters, 9 pitchers) which works out to 276 players. Then, I gave each player an auction dollar amount based on their ADP. Finally, I divided them into two groups and added up their auction dollars. Here are the results
Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s talk about the best prospect fastballs! These are the 9 pitchers with at least a 70 grade FB – Present (FBP) and 50 or higher FV grade for those with a 70 grade FBP.

Read the rest of this entry »

While I had little luck finding the next Lucas Giolito, he still intrigued me. He was possibly the worst major league starter in 2018 (6.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 173 IP). Last season, he remade himself by throwing harder (avg FBv from 92.4 mph to 94.3 mph), throwing more strikes (4.7 BB/9 to 2.90 BB/9), and reworking his pitch mix (dropped the sinker and curve).

The problem is that standard projection systems still incorporate the previous three or more results which hurt his projection. Our auction calculator (Steamer) ranks him as the 45th pitcher while he’s going as the 14th pitcher in the NFBC. Fantasy owners knew to reset his projection but to what? I decided to create a projection system called the GM (Giolito – Marte) based only on the previous season results. Nothing more.
Read the rest of this entry »

Sadly, the NFBC team building fun comes to a close. To go along with my splendid $14 offense, I attempted to assemble a $246 pitching staff using NFBC average auction values from March 15 and on. Just as I failed to spend all my money when buying a dominant offense, I left a buck on the table here as well, only spending $245. Let’s see what such an insane staff looks like.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I assembled a 14-player offense from the hitters who weren’t bought in NFBC auctions since March 15. Today, let’s flip over to the pitching side.

Read the rest of this entry »

The following is the second part of my 2020 Tout Wars Head-to-Head Points League recap. You can read Part I of my recap here.

For the second straight year, I had the honor and privilege of participating in one of the most prestigious fantasy baseball industry leagues – Tout Wars (toutwars.com). This was my very first live Tout Wars auction. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, we drafted online on the Sunday of March 15, 2020.

In Part I of my recap, I discussed the league rules, some of the homework that I had done on last year’s auction results, and how I obtained my auction values. I also talked about some of my other adjustments made due to the postponing of the MLB season.

Part II of my recap will be different than the typical recap article you tend to see. It will certainly differ from my usual writing style.

In today’s article, I will go through some of the intel that I had gathered on my opponents. I will dictate to you what I was looking for from the other touts and how I picked up on particular strategies during the auction. I will talk about what went right for me at the auction table and what went wrong. Finally, I will give a brief overview on my player selections.

The Touts

Well, I’m not sure that I would call members of the Tout Wars Head-to-Head Points my enemies. However, they most certainly were my opponents … at least for that Sunday afternoon in March. The quote above has appeared in folklore from many cultures, and of course, was one of the great lines of the movie “The Godfather.”

Fantasy baseball is largely about the numbers. If you often read my articles, you likely already know the importance that I place on projections and valuation.

Almost as important … perhaps even more important … is knowing your opponents. It is an advantage to be aware of the types of players that they bid on, how high they press bids, whether they nominate players they want to buy, the typical construct of their fantasy squads, etc.

Read the rest of this entry »

In my previous post, I looked at the hitting landscape for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) drafts. I also analyzed my own personal team from league #14, which was dubbed as the “league of death.”

Onto the pitching …

General Observations

Starting Pitchers

Let’s first compare starting pitcher ADPs from the past two seasons of TGFBI.

Read the rest of this entry »

I know some drafts are still going forward despite the delay to the MLB season so I wanted to get these RP rankings out as I did promise them on the podcast the other day. I’ll probably do an update to every position once more before the season starts, but here’s the initial run of RPs.

Read the rest of this entry »

03/12/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

RELIEVER PREVIEW

• Here is the NFBC Average Draft Data, but we didn’t follow it in order for this one.

THE SUPER 3 (6:46)

• Josh Hader
• Aroldis Chapman
• Kirby Yates

THESE GUYS ARE GOOD, TOO (18:05)

• Edwin Diaz
• Roberto Osuna
• Kenley Jansen

Read the rest of this entry »