Let’s play a game. Here are the instructions:

Step 1: Don’t scroll down to the table!

That would be like reading the answers in the back of the textbook before you read the question. You did it in fifth grade, don’t do it now.

Step 2: Imagine drawing a vertical line in the visual below that does a good job of maximizing the four roto counting stats, SB, HR, RBI, and R. Try not to pick rank one, two, or three.

Step 3: Note your player rank. Now you can scroll down to the table to see who you have chosen.

I created these ranks using the default settings of the auction calculator with steamer projections to sort by dollar value. Note that if you wish to do something similar, you should input the parameters of your league accordingly. The point of this exercise is to try to identify players who could be good pickups later in the draft. We so often see tables and spreadsheets and mark single statistics. But, it’s difficult for the human eye to take in all that information and process it. This visual is helpful because it shows us not how single stats like stolen bases decline across the ranks, but how all the counting stats vary across the ranks. For example, if you chose rank 8, you would get a nice little bump in projected (steamer) stolen bases with close to average HR, R, and maybe a little more RBI than some of the lower ranks. Who is this mysterious rank eight? Scroll down to the table to find out.

You, like me, may think, “I can wait for stolen bases. Shortstops seem to have a lot of them.” This visual proves that theory somewhat:

That long tail moving to the right of the shortstop (light blue) distribution shows us that we could potentially pick up a decent amount of steals with a late shortstop pick. However, rank 15 in the first visual shows how much you would sacrifice in projected runs and RBI if you were to employ that strategy. Who is this mysterious rank 15? Scroll down to the table to find out.

I’ve done some mock drafting this offseason using the Fantasy Pros draft simulator and I’ve found that if I don’t get stolen bases early because there are so many good hitters and pitchers that I take instead, I come out very SB-lite. I’ve also noticed that the simulator reaches for base stealers like Tommy Edman, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Akil Baddoo, and Tim Anderson much earlier than I would expect. That’s likely to happen in my actual draft as well. There’s nothing worse than finishing a draft and being really excited about your team and then realizing that you are depleted in a single category, especially if you don’t want to employ a punt strategy. Hopefully, these visuals and a few mock drafts will help you identify optimal draft positions for certain categories. I’m happy to do this same exercise for another position, but only if you’re nice to me in the comments section.

Third base is a weird position this year. There are some studs at the top, but it gets risky real fast. Want to bet on Alex Bregman regaining his earlier form? Or Austin Riley avoiding his earlier form? Think Anthony Rendon can stay on the field? Or maybe you would rather gamble on Josh Donaldson’s health? Pick your poison. Hopefully these rankings help.

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Draft season is getting in full swing so let’s start going around the field. Below are the first run of my first base rankings, split into tiers and including my projections for the classic categories. But also, let’s be real; we barely know each other and I doubt you’ll be blindly trusting my numbers. However, they form the basis of the dollar values that I base my ranks on, so I might as well include them.

Given a (proper) level of projection hesitancy, I’ll also be comparing my numbers to some of the reputable projection systems that you know and love, in spots where our gaps of disagreement are larger.  Not as a critique of them, mind you, but just to add context. But really, I think this is just the most efficient way to give everyone plenty of ammunition to roast me with later. Read the rest of this entry »

No one doesn’t want Yordan Alvarez. He’ll be a low-third or high-fourth rounder in 2022 redraft leagues. This isn’t a binary buy-sell article on Alvarez in that we all know he’s good. But do we know how good he is?

Putting Alvarez’ first 976 PAs into context against other players with 750-plus PAs since 2019:

His SLG% ranks third, behind only Mike Trout and Fernando Tatis Jr. His wRC+ is tied for third. His wOBA ranks sixth. And he ranks seventh among hitters in barrel rate with 600-plus batted ball events.

Alvarez is somewhere in the top-ten among real-life hitters in MLB and will likely be toward the bottom of the top-20 among hitters in ADP. Houston is probably gonna keep getting on base a ton, with or without Carlos Correa, so the hitting in the middle of that order is gonna keep showing a profit. The profit that should make up for virtually no expected steals.

Alvarez has a history of injury, but I don’t really care about 25-year-old DH who just played a full season. Personally, I don’t even equate it.

His walk rate could be higher and strikeout rate is about fine. The team coaches contact, so there is room for growth on both ends. Even if the strikeout rate falls without the wall rate rising, we see in Alvarez’ elite barrel rate that contact is good for our purposes.

Alvarez’ .335 BABIP is really high, but I don’t really give a crap about that because he pulverizes the ball on contact so often. High BABIPs are usually ripe with good fortune, but there is such thing as a high quantity of high-quality contact. I’d bank more on his .369 wOBA in 2021 inches up closer to his .389 xwOBA because his quality of contact is so pure. And the super-raw, extremely early returns are agreeing with me out of the gate.

ATC has Alvarez 2022-projected wOBA at .385. THE BAT X at .382 and Steamer at .379.

Alvarez’ .570 xSLG% was far great than his .529 SLG%. ATC has him projected early at .557 for 2022, THE BAT X has .551, and the more conservative Steamer still has him boosted to .546 — .313-projected BABIP be damned.

Factoring in the bats around Alvarez boosting his run production — Jose Altuve the Everyman, a healthy Alex Bregman, the ageless Yuli Gurriel, the high power of Kyle Tucker, and the perpetual hitting efficiency of Michael Brantley — we should be projecting Alvarez as a top-12 fantasy hitter in redrafts and even higher in dynasty and keeper formats. He’s only turning 25 this season and without defense for fantasy or a speed-dependency on the table, he should age very well.

The lockout makes this position the most uncertain on the fantasy diamond. With the lack of December and January moves, there is still so much unsettled in the closer market. To give you an idea of just how wild things are, my #14 RP is in the same bullpen as my #1, but I firmly believe Craig Kimbrel will be traded before the season starts so I’m treating him as a pretty impactful closer right now. I’ll start with a standard 1-70 ranking of relievers and then give 1-2-3 outlook of each team based on how things set up right now.

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Shortstop is maybe the most fun position in baseball right now. Fernando Tatis Jr., Bo Bichette, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trea Turner and I could keep going. As a result, almost every team in your league is going to feel good about shortstop, which I think creates an opportunity to buy a second SS to be your MI. There is a chance that there could be some good values to be had if other managers are complacent thanks to having one of the top 10. And there are plenty of interesting names after the top 10.

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2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the catcher position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. On the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon, you can see the rankings updated live and notes for each player will be added this week.

You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/
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2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the outfield position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. On the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon, you can see the rankings updated live and notes for each player will be added this week.

You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/

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Continuing my Ottoneu FanGraphs Points rankings series, we’ll turn our attention to middle infield, starting with second base. The next two lists (this one and shortstop, coming early next week) will have some overlap. Because Ottoneu has a MI spot, the replacement level for 2B and SS end up being the same. This is something I have played around with over the years – some years SS looks weaker; sometimes it is 2B. Sometimes the position that is weaker at the top also has a lower replacement level; sometimes it doesn’t. But the replacement level for the two positions always end up so close that prioritizing one over the other (i.e., if a player has 2B and SS eligibility, they should be used at SS) becomes impossible. To avoid making a false decision on prioritization, arbitrarily changing the value of players at these two spots, I combine them.

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2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the shortstop position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball. On the Sleeper and the Bust Patreon, you can see the rankings updated live and notes for each player will be added this week.

You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/

Read the rest of this entry »