Welcome to the inaugural and in all probability final episode of Slapdick Prospects, your source of all things Blake Snell might conceivably label “slapdick.” In the event this phrase means nothing to you in a 30-50 Feral Puigs kind of way, I refer you to the following brief PSA.
Prospect season is around the corner, and while various rankings, reports, and even trades will continue to influence the ebb and flow of prospect opinions, it’s helpful to lay the groundwork for establishing this year’s fantasy prospect values as early as possible. The list below represents a very early look at the top 101 prospects in the game for fantasy leagues tailored specifically towards traditional rotisserie scoring (where AVG, ERA, and SB are better indicators than OPS, FIP, and wOBA.). For example, this list could be a resource for evaluating the value of prospects in Ottoneu Old School 5 x 5 leagues. The top 101 prospects for sabermetrics leagues is here.
Years ago I introduced the Scorecard system, my custom prospect ranking process, and I’ve continued to use this method for scoring and ranking this crop of 2020 prospects. In ranking these prospects I take into account the following factors:
Scouting
“Scouting” is everything that goes into evaluating the true talent of an MLB prospect. Age, ability, stats, rankings, “makeup”, and scouting reports all play a role here. It’s the input of information that causes you to ask about the player’s ceiling, their floor, and what might be realistic in between. What are the risks, and how serious are they? Is this prospect regarded more for their defensive talents than offensive? What MLB players might they compare to? What is their future value expectation and how likely are they to reach it?
Taylor Trammell scouts like a tremendously athletic player, but scouting alone hasn’t yet materialized into an elite on-field player, so there are other elements to consider when ranking him among the other top prospects in the game in this context.
Scoring
“Scoring” is honestly assessing whether the prospect’s skills and talents effectively translate to the specific scoring format of your fantasy league. It seems obvious, but I continually see fantasy owners fail to make this connection in the way they draft and value their prospects each season. While Andrew Vaughn might be a top pick in sabermetic leagues, his value needs to be reassessed in the context of 5 x 5 leagues, for example. In order to be more successful in building our dynasty rosters, we need to always project value within the context of our specific league, which is what this rating is designed to consider.
Prospect season is around the corner, and while various rankings, reports, and even trades will continue to influence the ebb and flow of prospect opinions, it’s helpful to lay the groundwork for establishing this year’s fantasy prospect values as early as possible. The list below represents a very early look at the top 101 prospects in the game for fantasy leagues tailored specifically towards sabermetric scoring (where OPS, FIP, and wOBA are better indicators than AVG, ERA, and SB). For example, this list could be a resource for evaluating the value of prospects in Ottoneu points leagues (a separate post will follow ranking the top 101 prospects for traditional rotisserie leagues).
Years ago I introduced the Scorecard system, my custom prospect ranking process, and I’ve continued to use this method for scoring and ranking this crop of 2020 prospects. In ranking these prospects I take into account the following factors:
Scouting
“Scouting” is everything that goes into evaluating the true talent of an MLB prospect. Age, ability, stats, rankings, “makeup”, and scouting reports all play a role here. It’s the input of information that causes you to ask about the player’s ceiling, their floor, and what might be realistic in between. What are the risks, and how serious are they? Is this prospect regarded more for their defensive talents than offensive? What MLB players might they compare to? What is their future value expectation and how likely are they to reach it?
Royce Lewis scouts like a dream player (and #1 draft selection), but scouting alone hasn’t yet materialized into an elite on-field player, so there are other elements to consider when ranking him among the other top prospects in the game in this context.
Scoring
“Scoring” is honestly assessing whether the prospect’s skills and talents effectively translate to the specific scoring format of your fantasy league. It seems obvious, but I continually see fantasy owners fail to make this connection in the way they draft and value their prospects each season. While Drew Waters might be an exciting buy in a 5 x 5 auction, his value needs to be reassessed in the context of OPS leagues, for example. In order to be more successful in building our dynasty rosters, we need to always project value within the context of our specific league, which is what this rating is designed to consider.
Ottoneu arbitration begins today, and it is one of the highlights of the fantasy season. Much has been written about the various arbitration (usually via allocation) strategies available to owners over the past few winters, but if you’re entering your very first Ottoneu off season, or just researching how the game works before joining a new league, here is the official breakdown of how arbitration works:
In the interest of maintaining competitive balance, there are two distinct arbitration options:
Allocations
The allocation system gives a $25 budget to each team in the league.
The team must allocate this budget towards players on other teams.
Each team must allocate at least one dollar to every other team, and no team can allocate more than $3 to any other team.
At the end of the allocation period, all players have their salary increased by the amount allocated towards them.
Allocations take place after the initial offseason salary increase, so any allocations will be in addition to the $1 or $2 increase each player gets at the end of the season.
If a team does not allocate at least one dollar to every other team, none of their allocations will count and it will be as if they did not participate at all.
If a team does not allocate all $25, none of their allocations will count and it will be as if they did not participate at all.
Vote Off
The vote-off system gives each team in the league the ability to vote on a player on each other team.
The player that receives the most votes collectively on each team is turned into a restricted free agent that can be bid on by other teams during the auction draft.
In the case of a tie, the standings of all the relevant voting teams is examined. Whichever player has the team with the worst standings voting for them is the restricted free agent.
The team they were voted off from will get an automatic $5 discount towards that player, so if they get the player back, they will get the player for $5 under what they bid.
Players who have been voted into restricted free agency cannot be traded.
Players who have been voted into restricted free agency will not appear as free agents on the site.
The majority of Ottoneu leagues now use the Allocation system referenced above since it is the most engaging and usually the most disruptive.
As arbitration kicks off, I’ve provided links to a few strategic arbitration resources below. However, taking it one step further this year, I’m releasing a list of players I expect will receive the most arbitration allocations across Ottoneu leagues. Since player salaries are league-dependent, I’ve used average current salaries across all FGPTS leagues to estimate the attractiveness of these players and their likelihood to be hit with allocations from your league owners. As a practical application of the list, you could say I see a $31 Anthony Rendon as more valuable than an $8 Marcus Semien, for example. In this case, I think you should apply more of your allocations to Rendon instead of Semien.
If you own these players for salaries below the average salary listed, for example, expect their chances of receiving allocations to increase, moving them up the list compared to others. Roto values (particulary 5 x 5) would be reflected differently, and I would recommend posting those specific questions to the community here.
Welcome back to this annual series that first began in 2008. While taking a look back at the 2019 minor league season, it will also help you prepare for the 2020 fantasy season and beyond. We began the series recently with the Arizona Diamondbacks, followed by the Colorado Rockies. Today, we continue on with the San Diego Padres, an organization brimming with good, young talent.
Best Move of the Season:
It wasn’t anywhere near the steal of Fernando Tatis Jr. from the White Sox but the addition of center-fielder Taylor Trammell in a three-way trade with Cleveland and Cincinnati was a very underrated move. Yes, the Padres gave up three players but southpaw Logan Allen is overrated, outfielder Franmil Reyes is a very one-dimensional player, and the third player, Victor Nova, is a raw lottery ticket. Trammell, meanwhile, was already considered a Top 100 prospect despite his struggles with the bat in 2019. He’s ultra-athletic with plus speed and the raw power to hit 20 or more home runs. Despite his struggles in 2019 and issues making consistent contact, Trammell walked 65 times in 123 games (13% walk rate). Acquiring him was a worthwhile gamble considering what was given up in exchange.
The Org Depth:
The Padres graduated Luis Urias in 2019 but there is still an incredible amount of middle-infield depth on the way.
C.J. Abrams: Abrams was one of the most talented and most athletic players in the 2019 draft but no one expected his bat to be quite as advanced as it was. He laid waste to the Arizona rookie league with a 1.104 OPS and .401 batting average in 32 games. Abrams also showed more pop in the bat with 23 of his 57 hits in Rookie ball going for extra bases. The speedy infielder also added 14 steals on his way to an early August promotion to Low-A ball — a nearly unprecedented move for an 18-year-old.
Welcome back to this annual series that first began in 2008. While taking a look back at the 2019 minor league season, it will also help you prepare for the 2020 fantasy season and beyond. We began the series last week with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Today, we continue on with the Colorado Rockies, an organization that has some intriguing offensive players but continues to struggle to produce impact arms.
The Org Depth:
The Rockies’ system continues to see good infield depth even after the graduations of Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson in recent seasons.
Colton Welker, 3B: Welker dominated the lower levels of the minors with a career batting average of more than .330 after three pro seasons. He then hit a wall in Double-A. Welker missed over a month with an injury and never really looked healthy after his return. He’ll spend time in the Arizona Fall League and look to make up for lost time with an eye on jumping to Triple-A in 2020. To be an impact Major Leaguer, Welker needs to get stronger and continue to put more balls in the air. He also needs to be more selective with the pitches he’s swinging at.
Ryan Vilade, SS/3B: A more well-rounded player than Welker above, I’d put my money on Vilade eventually being the more valuable big leaguer. He’s not a speed-burner but the young infielder can run well and is becoming a smarter base runner. He’s also more selective at the plate and took 56 walks in 126 High-A ball games (just shy of a 10% walk rate) which bodes well for his future. He’s also getting stronger and hitting more balls in the air so a 20-homer season is a realistic goal.
Welcome back to this annual series that first began in 2008. While taking a look back at the 2019 minor league season, it will also help you prepare for the 2020 fantasy season and beyond. Today, we kick off the 2019 series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, a club that is quietly building an impressive minor league system.
The Best Move of the Season:
The development of Geraldo Perdomo allowed the Diamondbacks to flip the more highly-rated shortstop (and overrated), Jazz Chisholm, to Miami for rookie hurler Zac Gallen — which was a steal of a move no matter how you look at it. Perdomo is a much more polished hitter overall despite his inexperience. The switch-hitter doesn’t have nearly the raw power that Chisholm does but he’s exceptionally athletic and pretty much guaranteed to stick at shortstop while providing a good average, gap pop, an excellent BB-K (with above-average on-base skills) and double-digit steals. Gallen has always been underrated on the mound and I’ve been driving the bandwagon for a few years now and even undersold him a bit early on.
The Org Depth:
The Diamondbacks have skillfully built up a glut of athletic outfielders with high ceilings.
Alek Thomas: Thomas is at the head of the pack and should open 2020 in High-A ball with an eye on reaching Double-A in the second half and impacting the Majors in 2021. He’s a strong hitter who could flirt with a .300 average in the Majors and overall strong on-base skills after taking 52 walks in 112 minor leagues in 2019. On the downside, he’s not currently much of a power threat and, despite good speed, he doesn’t run much. Still, a .290 average with 15 home runs and 15 steals as a big-league center-fielder is a solid player. And he’s just 19 so there could more to come. A strong 2020 could help him reach the Majors in 2021.
Hey y’all! The Arizona Fall League rosters were finally released this week, and they feature a bunch of interesting players. Two of the players I discuss today will be playing in the league this fall. If you have a chance to go to Arizona this fall, please consider doing so. You will see young, upcoming stars playing against one another. The league begins on September 18th and concludes on October 26th. All games begin at 12:30 p.m. or 6:30 p.m and with the close proximity of the parks you can catch two games each day. The weather in Arizona this time of year is still warm but not overbearing and tickets are pretty cheap, especially with the type of talent on the field.
Today, I’m bringing you one slick-fielding shortstop whose bat is starting to play, one outfielder who has 80-grade speed, a right-handed control artist, and a southpaw with some strikeout upside.
8/26/19
Originally uploaded the wrong file, that has been corrected as of 7:40 Central on 8/26
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It’s never too early to think about next year, right? Or, for that matter, three years from now.
With that in mind, we’re going to take a look at six players in short-season leagues that should be poised to jump to full-season ball in 2020. If that happens, it should put them squarely on your watch list in dynasty formats.
I don’t advocate adding too many low-level prospects to a fantasy team’s roster, even in a format like Ottoneu that has a 40-man roster, but one, maybe two, won’t hurt, especially if they project to be impact players like the players listed below.
Aaron Bracho, 2B, Indians: Cleveland continues to churn out excellent results from its international scouting department and 2017 was an especially good year. That market produced three players with impact potential in Brayan Rocchio, George Valera, and Bracho. That third player listed has shown an advanced approach with the bat after an injury kept him off the field in 2018. Bracho has an encouraging BB-K of 22-21 in 29 rookie ball games while showing above-average pop with six home runs and 10 doubles — accounting for more than 50% of his 31 hits. It’s extremely rare for 18-year-old prospects to show that kind of balance between power and plate discipline.