How Are Your Counting Stats? Strikeout Edition
This season I’ve been checking to make sure all my counting stats are on pace using my league’s historical first-place totals. This is just a shallow ESPN league, but we’ve been at it for a few years now. So, I can get a good idea of what totals I’ll need to accumulate to come out on top. Using historical data in combination with Steamer rest of season projections, I can get a good sense of where I’ll be at the season’s end. Here’s a nice, simple graph that you can easily replicate using Excel:
I won’t show my ratios, you don’t want to see them. My WHIP and ERA are practically gone and never coming back. But, that allows me to go all-in on strikeouts and as you can see, I’ll need a big boost if I want to finish with first-place totals. Here are three pitchers who are likely available on waiver wires and have high rest of season strikeout totals.
Patrick Corbin, 43.9% rostered ESPN, ROS SO: 44
Corbin has hurt a lot of fantasy managers this season and his 5.82 ERA is the evidence. But, an extra 44 strikeouts would certainly be welcome. With the Nationals projected to win another 16 games, you may just get one or two more wins. His ROS ERA is 4.02, but this is really a move for strikeouts and not ratios. If you’re holding onto a small number there, don’t claim Corbin.
Josiah Gray, 33.9% rostered ESPN, ROS SO: 41
In Gray’s second start for the Nationals he recorded 10 strikeouts and in his two most recent starts he’s gone six innings. His ROS K/9 is a healthy 9.48 and it really seems like the Nationals are trying to see what their new rotation piece has to offer.
JT Brubaker, 12.4% rostered ESPN, ROS SO: 36
I know, I know. He’s on the IL, he’s had a rough go in his last few starts and his ROS ERA is a 4.18. But, his injury is supposedly only going to keep him on for the minimum stay, two of his last three starts resulted in an xFIP that was at least 4 points lower than his FIP and he only gave up four hits, and no runs in his most recent start.
The big disclaimer here is that you need to be willing to ditch WHIP and ERA. These three pitchers are not projected to keep the numbers off the scoreboard, but they could be cheap and easy ways of accumulating more strikeouts. As long as you have the starts remaining to spare, these three pitchers’ rest of season projections could get you what you need.
