Beat the Shift Podcast – Live Episode from First Pitch Arizona 2021

The Live Episode from First Pitch Arizona 2021 of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Derek Carty

What’s new in THE BAT X for 2022?

Strategy Section

  • Risk
    • How to deal with injury risk
    • How to discount for binary risk
    • Low risk players / consistent players
      • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
    • Categorical Risk
    • Replacement Level Risk
    • Ace Pitcher Risk – Should you draft pitchers in the first few rounds?
    • Stacking Risk – Doubling up in one league vs. spreading out in two different leagues
  • Auction
    • Spread the Risk vs. Stars & Scrubs
      • League depth matters
      • Grab value in every price tier
    • The value at the corner infield position
    • The Joey Votto nomination strategy

First Round of 2022 Drafts

  • Undervalued players in the first round
  • Overvalued players in the first round
  • Players that won’t be drafted in the first round, but should

Live Q&A

  • Which is worse – Overpaying for a player, or leaving money on the table in auctions?
  • Anthony Rendon for 2022
  • Elite catchers – Positional Scarcity vs. Market Premium
  • Budgeting / Money distribution in auctions
  • ATC minimizes parameter risk
  • Planing auctions by positions & price points
  • When you should ignore projections, and buy a player that you “like”

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.


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Ariel is the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. His ATC Projections were ranked as the #1 most accurate projection system in 2019. Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). He is a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Follow Ariel on Twitter at @ATCNY.

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What’s the deal with Kirilloff’s wrist injury/surgery?