2021 Pod vs Steamer — HR Upside

Every year, I pit my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections in various categories. Today I’m going to continue the annual smackdowns by calculating AB/HR rates and then extrapolating them over 600 at-bats. At that point, I’ll compare how many home runs each system is forecasting, given a 600 at-bat projection. I’ll start by sharing the names of hitters Pod is projecting for significantly more home runs than Steamer. Many of these players figure to be part-timers, so consider them sleepers in deeper leagues.

There he is again, Mike Yastrzemski! Can you believe he was atop my 2020 upside list too?! Last year, I almost nailed his AB/HR, and this year, I’m actually slightly more optimistic. Steamer is too, but still weighing Yastrzemski’s pre-2019 seasons far more than I am. Though the sample was small, of course, his xHR/FB rate was almost identical to his 2019 mark, suggesting the slight decline in his actual HR/FB rate was a fluke. This continued non-belief by the projection systems keep making Yastrzemski a bargain.

During parts of three seasons amounting to one full one, Jake Cave has struck out often and hasn’t hit enough fly balls to take full advantage of his home run power. But his power is legit. Part of my bullishness here is due to a projected jump in FB%, as he has shown a bit better in the minors and you would imagine that eventually he’ll realize hitting more fly balls is the best way to maximize his skills. He’s no more than an AL-Only leaguer right now as he patiently waits for an expanded opportunity.

Before the Dodgers finally resigned Justin Turner, it was looking like Edwin Rios would head into the season with the starting third base job. That’s no longer the case, but NL-Only leaguers still need to keep him in mind. The primary driver of his appearance on this list is I’m significantly more optimistic about his strikeout rate. That mark has reallllly bounced around during his minor league days, settling into the high teen to low-20% range from High-A in 2016 through Triple-A in 2017. Then it spiked to over 30% in 2018 and 2019. The better rates in 2016 and 2017 suggest that he still has the improvement capability inside him, so I’m nowhere near ready to forecast a mid-30% strikeout rate yet, like Steamer and most of the rest of the systems.

You could review my entire Ha-seong Kim 2021 Pod Projection to understand how I ended up where I did on his home runs. At the time, Steamer hadn’t run its projection, so this is the first time I’m seeing it. It looks pretty obvious that I’m the high man on the totem pole on his power. Guess we’ll find out who’s right at the end of the season.

Once again, Brandon Lowe finds himself on the Pod HR Upside list for the second straight season. This time the gap between Pod and Steamer’s AB/HR rate has grown. His xHR/FB rates validate that he’s a legit 20%+ HR/FB guy and since Steamer’s strikeout rate projection is slightly lower than mine, I’m not sure exactly what’s driving the difference here. All the projections are forecasting a significant drop in ISO, closer to his 2018 debut level, so I’m guessing it’s as simple as not believing in a 20%+ HR/FB rate, which is a head-scratcher.

No, Alex Chamberlain did not pay me to include Josh Rojas on this list. He was on it last year as well, but clearly the Diamondback believe in his Steamer projection far more than his Pod Projection, otherwise they would be carving out more playing time for him. Rojas enjoyed a thrilling breakout in 2019, including a huge power bump, but Steamer isn’t really buying it, as his projected ISO is barely above his 2018 mark posted at Double-A.

Austin Slater has shown power at times in the minors, but it wasn’t until the last two seasons over a relatively small sample that his power has really blossomed. His xHR/FB rate confirms the legit growth. I’m also projecting Slater to hold onto most of his FB% gains from last year. It’s possible that Steamer isn’t, so that could be another driver of the gap here. Whatever the case, we must chant FREE AUSTIN SLATER! He could be an exciting fantasy contributor with full-time at-bats.

Garrett Cooper is just a bench players for the Marlins right now, but he’s got real power that Steamer doesn’t seem to believe in. Part of the issue is Cooper’s FB% has been surprisingly low given his power, but he’s been better in the minors. And like discussed with Cave above, I am projecting a much better FB% simply due to the idea that he has to in order to maximize what he’s good at. You would think he and/or the team would realize this sooner or later.

It didn’t show up in the minors, but it’s clear that Chance Sisco now has developed serious power. For that reason, I’m still interested in AL-Only leagues, as he’s shown better strikeout rates in the minors and that mark could improve at any point.

Who knew that I would be comparatively bullish on Bo Bichette somewhere in his skill profile?! I never would have guessed. His power first manifested back at Triple-A in 2019, and now after parts of two MLB seasons, it’s clear that was legitimate growth, as his xHR/FB rates have validated his performance so far. Not only that, he actually vastly underperformed his 2020 xHR/FB rate, suggesting his 2019 level is a bit closer to his current true talent level. Naturally, Steamer and the projections aren’t buying it, giving weight to his single digit HR/FB rates in 2017 and 2018 that I’m completely ignoring.