Ariel Cohen’s 2021 Bold Predictions Recap

The full one hundred and sixty-two major league season has now concluded. After two whole tumultuous years, it is with great joy, that I am able to utter this sentence once again. After just a 60-game short season in 2021, completing the full schedule docket is a sparkling achievement.

It is now time to check back on how we fared during the past season. Here at RotoGraphs, that tradition starts with reviewing our pre-season bold predictions.

As always, I will remind my readers that we will never succeed in perfectly mining all of our bold predictions, nor should we. If this was simply a contest to obtain high precision, then we would have filled our lots with easy guesses. “Gerrit Cole will strike out 180 batters” – is an amazing baseball accomplishment, but it is far from bold. In fact, ATC was the low projection system on Gerrit Cole, and predicted an expected 257 Ks. Forget bold – the statistics may have suggested a probability of circumstance close to 60-75%.

Bold predictions are meant to be a far more remote event. They are meant to be unlikely.

At the other end of the spectrum, bold predictions are also not meant to be impossible. “Albert Pujols will steal 25 bases,” is not within the realm of any reasonable possibility. That is a prediction into the weird or absurd – which is NOT the purpose of these columns.

This author perennially suggests that bold predictions should lie in the 70^th to 90^th percentiles. In other terms, we should be boldly calling events that are 10-30% likely to occur. In return period speak – an occurrence that should unfold every 1 in 3.3 to 1 in 10 years. It should be a prediction that would happen once, twice or thrice a decade.

The point of the exercise is to highlight certain undervalued (or overvalued) players by choosing a few unlikely, but achievable outcomes. By doing so, the goal is for the reader to pay the player(s) in question a bit more (or less) attention than the market would suggest.

Now, let’s recap my 2021 bold predictions!

#1: Eddie Rosario finishes as a top 15 OF in Roto

After four straight years with an Eddie Rosario prediction, this very well may be my final one.

First of all, I want to point out that there is no official value ranking system. Different fantasy baseball sites have different ways to measure roto value. Some use a Standings Gain Points (SGP) methodology, while others use a Z-Score based method. The question of pure valuation is still open within our community.

According to our own FanGraphs Auction Calculator with pure NFBC settings – Rosario earned $6.4 rotisserie dollars in a 15-team standard 5×5 format. Counting anyone who had OF eligibility this year, he was the 67^th highest producing OF – a “5^th Outfielder” in differing terms. Razzball’s player rater similarly came up with a #66 OF ranking for Rosario, with $6.0 of roto earnings.

Rosario finished with a stat line of 14 HR, 62 RBI, 42 R, 11 SB alongside a triple slash of .259/.305/.435. This easily was Eddie’s worst season in a long while. He was injured for a large part of 2021 and lost playing time down the stretch, thereby finishing with only 412 plate appearances. He did have the best stolen base season of his career, as the Indians let him run.

His second half with the Braves was better; he slashed .271/.330/.573, hitting 7 HR in 106 PAs. That’s better than a 35-homerun full-season pace [alas, a small sample size]. His barrel rate with the Braves was almost 10%, which was higher than his best full single season to date (7.7% in 2019).

What Rosario will accomplish in his ago-30 season in ‘22 will depend largely on where he will be playing. The home park influence will matter, but more importantly – his playing time situation will be the key.

For now, I’ll take the “L” on Eddie Rosario yet again.

0 for 1

#2: Franmil Reyes will out earn Yoan Moncada

Before claiming success here, it is important to note the following. Typically, the “out earn” bold predictions, and the “will finish outside of” statements are the easiest to get right. A player with an injury can easily fail to accumulate a healthy amount of statistics, and the probability these days for a large IL stint is high.

That said, my claim to success here is legitimate. Moncada had over 100 at-bats more than Reyes, yet Franmil still was the higher earning roto player.

This prediction highlighted the fact that Reyes was undervalued in 2021, while Moncada was overvalued. The market completely misjudged both players, while ATC was more accurate.

At the outset, we knew that Franmil would dominate Yoan in the HR and RBI categories. Reyes’s career HR/FB% rate is roughly double that of Moncada – and not surprisingly, he ended up with 16 more homeruns. As ATC predicted, Reyes also finished with slightly more in the total run production department (R+RBI).

The only realistic path that Moncada had for foiling this prediction statistically (injury aside) would have been via the SB and BA categories. Moncada did end up with the better batting average, but amazingly, Reyes stole more bases. Moncada did not attempt a stolen base in 2020, and only attempted a single one in 2021’s spring training. Those extra pieces of information led me to believe that one of Yoan’s biggest roto asset would be absent – and indeed, my intuition was correct.

Fantastic! That’s one in the “W” column for me!

1 for 2

#3: Emmanuel Clase will lead the Cleveland Indians in saves

It looks like I am on a roll now.

This bold prediction had two major subtexts to it.

• A strong statement on the market severely overvaluing James Karinchak.
• The notion that highly skilled 100 MPH hurlers will eventually find themselves thrust into the ninth innings of close ballgames.

The NFBC ADP for Karinchack during the month of March was 111. That’s an 8^th round ADP for 15-team leagues. Nick Wittgren’s ADP was 368 – a final pitcher dart for some. Emmanuel Clase’s draft location was in the 28^th round (ADP of 415), a reserve pick.

Karinchak pitched decently for most of the season. He accumulated 11 saves, striking out a whopping 78 batters in just over 55 innings. In that span he compiled a 3.57 SIERA. Wittgren wasn’t as sharp, allowing 35 runs in 62.1 IP.

Emmanuel Clase was markedly better. Aside from the 24 saves which led his squad, he pitched 69.2 innings maintaining a 1.29 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP, with 74 Ks. He solved his past homerun issues, and kept the walks down. He had the highest average velocity on his fastball for pitchers with more than 10 innings in 2021 (100.4 MPH).

If healthy, Clase should open 2022 as Cleveland’s main closer. For 2021 – he earned me a correct bold prediction.

2 for 3

#4: Pete Alonso and Joey Gallo will combine for at least 85 HRs

This bold prediction was a prime example highlighting the advantage of drafting players with relatively low process risk. It was also a great example of depicting undervalued expectation versus full upside, and why bold predictions are useful even if they don’t exactly hit.

Below are the final 2021 stats for the two sluggers:

If you recall, one of the reasons that I chose to boldly predict these two power-hitting major leaguers was their low ATC volatility metrics (InterSD and InterSK).

A quick reminder:

• InterSD highlights how tight projections are surrounding a player. A lower InterSD for hitters typically correlates with better expected production.
• InterSK highlights how projections sit around the ATC average. A zero InterSK means that projections are just as high as they are low. A negative InterSK means that there are outsized low projections that are dragging the ATC average down. Players with negative InterSKs have tended to perform better than expected.

You can read more about ATC Inter-Projection Volatility in its introductory article, here.

The ATC volatility metrics are calculated about ATC’s 5×5 15-team roto value. So, they are not exactly measuring raw stats accuracy – but rather, value within league context. The low standard deviation surrounding the players (InterSD) suggested that their final roto value would not deviate very much from what was predicted. The negative skew present (InterSK) suggested that they would be prone to out-earn their projection, if any.

Alonso was drafted #51 overall in the NFBC ADP during March. According to Razzball, he finished as player #51 in 2021. An exact hit! Gallo’s ADP was 141, yet he finished the season as player #91 … a profit!

ATC projected 39 HRs for Gallo, and 41 for Alonso. Neither met their marks, but they came pretty close. Possible injuries aside – the duo were good bets to retain much of their fantasy value. Out of 80 predicted homeruns, they clobbered 75 round trippers – 94% of their expected sum. Since well over 6% of fantasy value escapes the originally drafted player pool, those who rostered both Gallo & Alonso, amassed a combined profit for the season (Alonso exactly holding his value, and Gallo gaining).

If one had read my bold predictions column back in March and increased their Alonso & Gallo shares, they would have profited on the whole. No, neither player achieved their 70^th to 90^th percentile outcome this year – so technically, this bold prediction missed. But they did combine for a 55^th percentile value outcome, thus beating aggregate expectations.

It is nice when bold predictions hit. But they don’t have to hit to be useful.

2 for 4

#5: Tyler Glasnow will strike out 250 batters

Through 68 games, Tyler Glasnow was surely on the pace for this prediction to come true. Unfortunately, a partial tear in his UCL ended his season prematurely.

Tyler’s final 2021 line was: 5 wins, 2.66 ERA, 0.93 WHIP with 123 strikeouts in 88 innings. Scaled to a full season, Glasnow would have eclipsed 200 innings and 290 Ks. He would have been a prime Cy Young candidate. Even in his abridged season, he managed to accumulate 2.5 WAR, the highest figure of his career.

Many of Glasnow’s metrics in 2021 were far ahead of his typical rates. His 17% swinging strike percentage and a 2.92 SIERA were career bests. What a shame.

Alas, injury is a part of baseball – and unfortunately, this ace starting pitcher succumbed to it. No performance is better than poor performance, for roto players. From a fantasy perspective – with a 4^th round ADP (NFBC March ADP of 47), he was the right pitcher to draft at the time.

Glasnow’s full season auction value earnings amounted to approximately $8. Add to that a replacement level pitcher or streaming options, and the roster spot still turned in a loss. If you had drafted him back in March, you would have ended up with positive earnings, but a negative return on investment.

This isn’t the first prediction to be foiled by injury and it won’t be the last.

2 for 5

#6: Edwin Diaz will lead MLB in saves

Below is the 2021 saves leaderboard:

Also, take a peek at the following chart courtesy of our own Jeff Zimmerman:

There is a direct linear relationship between team wins and team saves. If you can roster the primary closer of a playoff-bound team, you will likely end up with a large number of saves. What makes saves in current baseball even tougher to predict, is the way that bullpens are used. Closer-by-committee approaches and saving the best relievers for high leverage situations might be accretive for real-life baseball – but it makes it more difficult for fantasy players.

My selection of Edwin Diaz as the MLB saves champ was predicated on three basic notions. One, that the Mets would be a playoff-contending team. Two, that Diaz would remain an elite reliver in baseball. Three (of most importance), Diaz was poised to obtain almost all of the Mets’ save chances.

The second and third parts of the above were largely true. Diaz earned 32 of the Mets’ 41 saves. He pitched to the tune of a 3.45 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP, accumulating 89 strikeouts in under 63 innings. However, the Mets did not put up their end of the bargain. They finished with a disappointing 77-85 record – a losing season. Meanwhile, Mark Melancon stuck as the closer in San Diego. The Padres played in a lot of close games, earning a plethora of save opportunities … which he converted with high success.

7^th place in saves, is decent for Diaz – but not decent enough for me to be victorious in this bold prediction.

2 for 6

#7: The Colorado Rockies will win the World Series

Hand the Rockies’ skipper the Manager of the Year award in the NL!

Despite a 62-game win projection, the Rockies surprisingly beat that mark by nearly 20%, finishing with a 74-87 record. In fact, their home record of 48-33 was 7^th best in the majors!

Yes, this bold prediction was meant to be an April Fool’s Day joke. But heck – if they would have made the playoffs … I’m sure I’d have taken credit for it anyways!

–

Well, I finished 2 for 6 in bold predictions for the year. It is a small sample size, but at .333 – that is a Hall of Fame pace. If Glasnow would have stayed healthy all season long, it would have been a prediction season for the ages!

I hope that you all had a successful fantasy baseball season. Most importantly – please stay healthy and safe. I will have much more 2021 season wrap up in the coming days and weeks.