2021 Pod vs Steamer — HR Upside, A Review

In mid-March, I listed and discussed the 10 hitters my Pod Projections forecasted for more home runs per 600 at-bats than Steamer. All that means is that I calculated the player’s projected AB/HR ratio from both systems and then extrapolated those projections over 600 at-bats, so I’m isolating the home run rate skill and keeping playing time constant. Let’s dive into the results.

As a reminder, the 2021 league home runs per 600 at-bats was the lowest since 2018 and the second lowest since 2016. That means that it would have been easier to hit the “downside” guys this year if the projection systems were unable to foresee the decline in home run rate.

With that in mind, I’m pretty pleased with these results, even more so than the 5-5 tie for the two systems would suggest. Only four of the 10 hitters recorded more than 300 at-bats, all of them actually recording more than 450 at-bats, and my projection was closer for three out of those four. Steamer tallied two “wins” from guys who failed to record even 100 at-bats, and we know anything could happen over such a tiny sample, especially from guys who were never expected to play regularly anyway.

Let’s now talk specifics. It was nice to hit my top guy Mike Yastrzemski and actually almost nail his 600 AB pace. While he missed time with injury, his FB% increased even higher to offset some of the potentially lost homers from a small decline in HR/FB rate. It’s hard to believe that he’s already 31, so there probably isn’t much more upside here, but at the very least, his BABIP could rebound, making him a bit more desirable in shallower mixed leagues.

Jake Cave and Edwin Rios were always expected to be reserves for their respective teams and they ended up combining for just 215 at-bats. Both projection systems ended up far too bullish, but again, it’s pretty meaningless in such small samples.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 was a big signing for the Padres and he figured to man multiple positions and potentially contribute across all five categories. His projection, like for any player coming over from a foreign league, is much closer to the “guess” side of “educated guess” than an established veteran is, or even a prospect with minor league history. Considering the hype, he was a massive disappointment with the bat, and while both systems overshot his home run total, Steamer was far less optimistic than I was. He’s still just 26 though, but the dismal showing is going to make it much more difficult for him to find himself in a full-time role in the future.

I noted that Brandon Lowe found himself on my upside list for the second straight season, and the gap between the two forecasts had actually grown. It’s a good thing I was much closer, even though we both undershot his pace, or I would have sounded pretty silly. Lowe actually posted a slightly higher HR/FB rate than he did in 2020, making it the third straight increase. I’m not sure why projection systems continue to doubt his power.

During the first half of the season, my Josh Rojas forecast was nearly spot on. He had homered 10 times for a 20 homer pace. Then it all fell apart. In the second half, he homered just once, as his HR/FB rate collapsed from 17.9% to just 2.4%. That meant that the accuracy title quickly shifted to Steamer, which was quite the turnaround. While his 2019 HR/FB rate breakout in the minors suggests he does have the capability of a mid-to-high teen HR/FB rate, a lowly 104.6 maxEV does give me serious pause.

He was essentially just a lefty-masher again, but even in his small sample of 274 at-bats, I almost nailed Austin Slater’s home run pace. What’s interesting is that his huge performance gap against lefties vs righties actually isn’t driven by home run power. His HR/FB rate against either hand is nearly identical. Instead, he strikes out significantly less against lefties and hits a higher rate of fly balls, so he’s taking better advantage of the strong HR/FB rate and putting more balls into play. The Giants don’t seem to have any interest in giving him an extended look against right-handers, so he’ll remain either a daily league or NL-Only league play.

Garrett Cooper missed a chunk of the season to injury, finishing with just 215 at-bats. He has now posted a 20%+ HR/FB rate for three straight seasons, though he still struggles to lift the ball in the air. He’s worth remembering if he gets a full-time job.

Welp, I guess now’s as good a time as any to finally get off the Chance Sisco train! I’ve been a fan given his power potential, but he failed to hit even one home run over 74 at-bats this year and will now be searching for his third team to help realize his potential.

Finally, we end with Bo Bichette, who I’m thrilled to have essentially been right about with regards to his power. While I didn’t initially believe it, his xHR/FB rates fully validated his blossoming home run power. Even better was that he underperformed his 2020 xHR/FB rate, suggesting a jump back out…which is exactly what happened, all the while the projection systems had a difficult time believing the power he was displaying. He is now officially a five-category monster. Though ranking just 175th in Sprint Speed and 192nd in HP to 1B, you never know when those steals are going to dry up.