02/12/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

2020 OUTFIELD PREVIEW Pt. 2

A little of everything… (1:30)

• Victor Robles
• Tommy Pham
• Ramón Laureano
• Luis Robert
• Jeff McNeil
• Eddie Rosario
• Andrew Benintendi
• Oscar Mercado
• Danny Santana

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02/10/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Mookie Betts deal final
• BARF league review

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The Cincinnati Reds capped off their strong offseason with another big move, announcing the addition of Nicholas Castellanos on a 4-year, $64 million dollar deal (which includes opt outs after 2020 and 2021). Castellanos has been a solid above average hitter the last several years, but then stepped up a notch when joining the Cubs down the stretch in 2019. After posting a 105 wRC+ in 439 PA with Detroit, he was traded over at the deadline and posted an explosive 154 mark in 225 PA.

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Using a format similar to the one Paul Sporer recently posted for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 75 Outfielders for Ottoneu fantasy baseball.  Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed).  You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards the January 31st keeper deadline for all leagues.

Previous 2020 Ottoneu rankings:

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I decided to cut my OF rankings at 60 for this list, but let me be clear that there were another 15 or so who could’ve taken those last 4-5 spots. It’s definitely a mid-to-late round glob of talent, one of several that develops in the OF pool, including a power glob I highlight starting just after #30.

Other 2020 Rankings:

• SP
• C
• 1B
• 2B
• SS
• 3B

Think I missed someone who is a surefire top 60? Make your case in the comments below. I’m also curious if you have a strong preference with those top 3, who I seem to change my opinion on every other day lately.
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10/29/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host

2020 OUTFIELDER DISCUSSION

• Top 25
  • The Top 4 (5:00)
  • Rest of the Top 10 (7:45)
  • Charlie Blackmon/Starling Marte (8:20)
  • Eloy Jiménez (9:25)
  • Victor Robles (10:27)
  • Ketel Marte (11:30)
  • Whit Merrifield (14:50)
  • Austin Meadows (15:55)
  • Notable Omissions (17:48)
    • Marcell Ozuna (18:01)
    • Andrew Benintendi (18:48, 22:18)

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From a fantasy perspective, 2019 has not gone how we hoped for Andrew Benintendi. The Red Sox outfielder was being selected in the top-30 this spring: 30^th overall in NFBC drafts and 29^th at Fantasy Pros.

Benintendi continues to do things well in his third full big-league season. He hits for average, and walks often enough. While he is pacing for his lowest full-season stolen base output to date, he still can contribute in steals. But 450 games into his Major League career, Benintendi hasn’t been able to hit for the power that many anticipated. His 20-home run season in 2017 and current ISO of .181 being his high-water marks.

Benintendi’s solid, but underwhelming 2019 season may see him enter 2020 as a bit of a forgotten man in drafts. This could be a mistake if he is able to make the same power gains his teammate  Xander Bogaerts has made over the past two seasons – and Benintendi does share a significant amount of offensive traits with Boston’s star shortstop.

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Jake Bauers entered the 2019 season a kind of wide-awake sleeper to many fantasy analysts looking to target cheap value at first base or in the outfield. Per National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) average draft position (ADP) data, Bauers was drafted, on average, 230th overall, 24th among first basemen, and 66th among outfielders — effectively your last corner infielder or outfielder, or your first bench bat. You weren’t depending on him too gravely for production; the cost to acquire Bauers was typically low, making any sunk costs a bit easier to swallow.

Still, it has been disappointing to see Bauers follow up 2018’s 11-homer, 6-steal half-season with mediocrity. Yes, his rookie campaign featured a miserable .201/.316/.384 line, but it was marred by a meager .252 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a 26.8% strikeout rate (K%) that seemed far out of whack relative to his roughly league-average 11.0% swinging strike rate (SwStr%). It stood to reason, at first glance, Bauers would cash in on some positive regression to post a fairly solid slash line while posting double-digit home runs and stolen bases — and it didn’t seem altogether far-fetched to hope so.

Ultimately, it never came to fruition. In almost an identical number of plate appearances, Bauers replicated his home run tally but with a lower isolated power (.146 ISO to .183 ISO), a feeble stolen base rate (two steals on five attempts, versus six on 12 last year), and worse plate discipline despite a better whiff rate. Cleveland had enough and eventually optioned Bauers with his career line standing at 22 homers, eight steals, and a .218/.312/.381 line in 771 plate appearances.

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Earlier this season on FanGraphs, Ben Clemens embarked on a journey to search for a player similar to Mike Trout. Now of course, no one in the past half-decade has come close to replicating Trout’s production – but it was a fun exercise in player comparison analysis. My colleague found that Tommy Pham was Trout’s closest match.

Consider the following blind resumes for 2019:

The three players profile very similarly. They all have a fly-ball tilt to their batted ball tendencies, with few line drives. They all have large HR/FB ratios, and each have high hard-hit and medium-hit rates.

By the title of this article, you likely have already guessed the true name of one of the above lines. Player A is none other than Khris Davis.

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I think we’ve been ranking outfielders incorrectly as an industry. A straight 1-to-whatever list loses some value after the top 50 or so. Once you’ve got your first 2-3 OFs, the last few are often strategically picked to attack categories instead of just going with best available.

Say you need a speed asset for that 4th OF, but the best one is the 12th ranked guy on your remaining board, do you just take him knowing it fills the need or do you internally justify taking someone higher because he’s more talented even though he doesn’t really help the team construction? I’m sure some of you have no issue just taking the needed player, but plenty of us waffle on those decisions and it can cost us in the end.

I’ve ranked my top 50 in order of how I’m drafting them for the most part. I do have some clusters of speedsters and I’d only take one from a cluster even if the others were available the next time I was looking at outfield. I have Dee Gordon and Mallex Smith at 40 and 41, but I’m not going to roster both. Beyond that, it’s a straight draft list. After 50, I broke 106 OFs down by standout skill. Within each skill tier, the guys are slotted in my preferred order. The tiers are most self-explanatory, but just to cover my bases, here they are:

AVG – Player offers a strong batting average (usually .280+… maybe .270+ for some later ones). He may bring other assets to the table but strengthening your AVG is the goal with these picks.

PWR – I told you they were self-explanatory. These guys are capable of or have already shown the ability to club 25+ HRs (30+ at the top end).

PWR/SPD – These guys can bring a double/double (10+ HR & SB) to the table with enough playing time.

SPD – These guys have 20+ SB upside.

TIME/UTIL– Most of this group doesn’t have a standout skill and even if they do, it’s on the fringes of the qualifications for the groups above so their real asset is playing time. I grouped these two together as there were only four utility guys (players with at least 3 eligible positions) and their ability to bounce around helps them get playing time.

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