November ADP Market Report: Outfielders

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Brandon Lowe (+10.22.)- See the second basemen article in this series. 

Dominic Smith (+10.92)- See the first basemen article in this series.

Jeff McNeil (+11.55)- See the second basemen article in this series. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Dylan Moore (+22.89)- See the second basemen article in this series. 

Byron Buxton (+11.58)- Talent has never been in question on Buxton and in 2020, he delivered fantasy goodness when he was on the field. He popped 13 homers and swiped two bags, but only managed to play in 39 games for the Twins. Early projections have him playing 136 games and being a 25/20 kind of player and if he played that many games he could be a stud. However, he has only one season in which he played 100+ games and that was in 2017. His great StatCast data is tantalizing, but it comes with a 17.4% swinging strike rate and a 51.2% O-Swing. Buxton is the definition of a boom or bust player, but that is a big risk as a top 125 pick. 

Ryan Mountcastle (+10.7)- See the first basemen article in this series. 

Max Kepler (+11.86)- Kepler followed up his breakout season with disappointing 2020. He hit nine homers and stole three bases and hit .228/.321/.439 in 48 games. His StatCast data is a bit concerning. His barrel percentage, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage all dropped. However, he did increase his walk rate, kept his strikeout rate at a respectable level and had a fantastic 93.7% Z-contact percentage and his expected BA was .258 which is more in line with what we saw in 2019. He is fairly priced even with his rise and could be a nice 4th outfielder in most leagues. 

Daulton Varsho (+27.26)- See the catchers article in this series. 

Trey Mancini (+23.62)- See the first basemen article in this series. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Mike Yastrzemski (-10.09)- Yaz had a huge start to the season, posting the third best WAR in the league behind Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mookie Betts. He didn’t really disappoint in the final month, but it didn’t translate into much more than an empty average profile. He walks a lot and does have a nice hard hit percentage, but it is hard to see a major step forward in the power department or for him to keep the batting average high with an inflated .370 BABIP. I would expect the price to fall some more and it would need to in order for him to be worth drafting. 

Ramon Laureano (-11.97)- It is not surprising to see Laureano begin to drop considering his poor 2020. He hit just six home runs and stole only two bases with a .213 batting average. On the plus side, he stayed on the field which has been an issue previously for him. Part of the issue for him was he got passive at the plate. His swing percentage dropped 8.4% and that was even worse inside of the zone and while that led to more walks, it didn’t help his strikeout rate. When he did swing and make contact, the hard contact wasn’t as often as it was in 2019. His exit velocity also took dip by two miles per hour. His ability to steal bases and the power he showed in 2019 will keep him as a top 150 player, but there are better options at that spot. 

Tommy Edman (-11.29)- See the second basemen article in this series. 

Victor Robles (-13.6)- There were a lot of warning signs in Robles’ StatCast profile after 2019 and it got even worse in 2020. Robles had an exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xBA, and barrel percentage in the bottom fifth percentile of the league. He really struggled against fastballs with a .190 expected batting average. He really struggled against right handed pitching in 2020, hitting just .180. Considering he doesn’t walk, his strikeout rate jumped up, and he hit at the bottom of the order in 39 of his 52 games played, there isn’t much to be super excited about. We saw the upside in 2019, he is still just 23 years old, his defense should keep him getting playing time and the price isn’t prohibitive, but he is a bottom of the order hitter that has a lot of downside. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

A.J. Pollock (+23.16)- Pollock quietly had a great season for the Dodgers, hitting .276/.314/.566 with 16 home runs and two stolen bases, so it makes sense that his stock is rising. The hard part is that Pollock is hard to trust considering he has not played more than 113 games since 2015. If the DH is in the NL, Pollock could get more rest which would hopefully help keep him on the field. He is a risk/reward pick that is enticing if he doesn’t continue to rise too much. 

Chris Taylor (+18)- See the second basemen article in this series. 

Lorenzo Cain (+23.68)- Cain opted out of the 2020 season after just five games and that may have led to his draft position being suppressed in the early drafts as people may have forgotten about him a bit. He is going to be 35 in April and is coming off of a down year in 2019, but he still was able to hit 11 home runs and steal 18 bases with a respectable average. If his BABIP normalizes to his pre 2019 levels and, he could get on base enough to steal 20+ bases again with the upside of his 2018 levels at the top of a good lineup in Milwaukee. 

Brandon Nimmo (+20.16)- Nimmo quietly put up a respectable season for the Mets hitting .280./404/.484 with eight home runs and a stolen base in 55 games. Nimmo isn’t going to be a super star, but he is a great player in OBP formats and should deliver some pop and stolen bases with a decent average and a ton of runs on top of the Mets lineup. If he were to be a part of Lindor trade, his stock could rise a bit more in a better park. 

Manuel Margot (+35.85)- Margot had a great second half hitting .263 with a homer and 10 stolen bases in his last 25 games. He built upon that in the playoffs hitting .276/.344/.552 with five home runs and two stolen bases. The problem with Margot is the team he plays on. The Rays are notorious for platooning and while Margot has earned a full time role, it is not guaranteed. If he was able to get 500 plate appearances, he could be a 15/30 guy. He is still just outside the top 250, but that should continue to change. 

Yasiel Puig (+32.52)- I love Puig, but I don’t get this upward movement. He didn’t play in 2020 after his contract with the Braves was voided when he tested positive for COVID-19. It is clear there are a number of teams that won’t touch him because of his persona in spite of his talent. I need to see him sign a contract before I am willing to draft him and if that happens, his ADP could jump 100+ spots. 

David Peralta (+43.53)- After a disappointing season in 2019, Peralta didn’t do much to redeem himself in 2020. He hit only five home runs and stole one base in 54 games. At least he played that many games as he has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career, having never playing in 150 games in a season. He is a pretty safe bet for some batting average, but it is empty unless he can find his swing from 2018. 

Mitch Haniger (+27.69)- Haniger is a guy that must be fantasy kryptonite for some people. He hasn’t played a game since June of 2019 due to injuries and has been plagued by injuries much of his career in the Majors and minors. The talent is immense, but there is a risk you get absolutely nothing. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Jurickson Profar (-12.73)- It feels like we have been waiting for the Profar breakout forever. We finally got it in 2020 when he hit .278/.343/.428 with seven home runs and seven stolen bases in 56 games. This is in spite of starting the season 3-for-37. The door in ADP likely comes from the fact he is a free agent and we don;t know where he will be, but he now falls into a post-hype sleeper category that could be interesting as long as he has a full-time role. 

Andrew Benintendi (-13.83)- Oh how the mighty has fallen! Benintendi was a second round pick in 2019 and now is going outside the top 200. On top of it all, he only played in 14 games for the Red Sox last season, hitting no home runs and stealing just one base on three attempts. Assuming health, he should be able to be a usable player, but he appears to be a compiler at this point and it is hard to want to invest in a compiler coming off of a lost season due to injury. 

Jo Adell (-24.05)- Adell is the perfect example of the fantasy industry abandoning a prospect after he disappoints in their initial call up. The tools are apparent. He has great exit velocity and speed, but he swings and misses way too much. Only Miguel Sano had a higher strikeout rate in the Majors than Adell. That being said, he has amazing natural ability if he can learn to make better contact. It is a huge gamble, but one that is cheaply priced. 

Ramiel Tapia (-15.93)- Why do people hate Ramiel Tapia? He hit .321/.369/.402 with a home run and eight stolen bases in 206 plate appearance for the Rockies in 2020. He also led off every game he played for the Rockies from August 20th on. Yes, his StatCast numbers are awful, but he makes a lot of zone contact and increased his walk rate in 2020, though it is still not great. He is a cheap source of stolen bases and runs with an average that shouldn’t hurt you and could help late in a draft. 

November ADP Market Report: Outfielders
11/1/2020-11/30/2020 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/2020-10/31/2020 Change
1.52 Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL OF 1.75 0.23
2.89 Mookie Betts LAD OF 4 1.11
4.63 Juan Soto WAS OF 4.25 -0.38
5.41 Mike Trout LAA OF 5.5 0.09
11.33 Christian Yelich MLW OF 11 -0.33
14.52 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B, OF 16 1.48
20.52 Bryce Harper PHI OF 19.75 -0.77
32.74 Kyle Tucker HOU OF 29 -3.74
34.26 Luis Robert CWS OF 36.25 1.99
40.04 Eloy Jimenez CWS OF 44.5 4.46
42.26 Whit Merrifield KC 2B, OF 47.5 5.24
45 Marcell Ozuna ATL OF 42.25 -2.75
50.74 Starling Marte MIA OF 54.5 3.76
53.89 Aaron Judge NYY OF 51.25 -2.64
55.41 Cavan Biggio TOR 2B, 3B, OF 57 1.59
56.19 Randy Arozarena TB OF 61 4.81
58.85 Trent Grisham SD OF 56.25 -2.6
60.15 George Springer HOU OF 61 0.85
66.63 Teoscar Hernandez TOR OF 71.75 5.12
70.78 Brandon Lowe TB 2B, OF 81 10.22
79.52 Michael Conforto NYM OF 82 2.48
83.44 Nick Castellanos CIN OF 79.75 -3.69
87.81 Dominic Smith NYM 1B, OF 99 11.19
88.93 Austin Meadows TB OF 89.25 0.32
92.26 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR OF 100.5 8.24
93.67 Charlie Blackmon COL OF 91.75 -1.92
97.7 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B, 3B, OF 109.25 11.55
106.26 Kyle Lewis SEA OF 108.75 2.49
112.81 Eddie Rosario MIN OF 122.25 9.44
113.11 Dylan Moore SEA 2B, OF 136 22.89
117.04 Tommy Pham SD OF 109.75 -7.29
120.67 Byron Buxton MIN OF 132.25 11.58
124.41 Wil Myers SD OF 123.75 -0.66
125.96 Alex Verdugo BOS OF 129.25 3.29
130.59 Mike Yastrzemski SF OF 120.5 -10.09
138.3 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B, OF 149 10.7
141.56 Dylan Carlson STL OF 143.75 2.19
144.22 Ramon Laureano OAK OF 132.25 -11.97
145.04 Tommy Edman STL 2B, 3B, SS, OF 133.75 -11.29
150.07 Jorge Soler KC OF 149.25 -0.82
162.85 Victor Robles WAS OF 149.25 -13.6
163.52 Michael Brantley HOU OF 160 -3.52
164.26 Anthony Santander BAL OF 168 3.74
165.56 Ian Happ CHC OF 160.75 -4.81
165.7 Joey Gallo TEX OF 179.5 13.8
173.78 Clint Frazier NYY OF 168.25 -5.53
175.07 Nick Solak TEX 2B, OF 178.25 3.18
179.89 Max Kepler MIN OF 191.75 11.86
183.74 Daulton Varsho ARZ C, OF 211 27.26
191.59 Randal Grichuk TOR OF 190.25 -1.34
193.89 Kyle Schwarber CHC OF 199.25 5.36
197.85 Victor Reyes DET OF 204.25 6.4
200.63 Trey Mancini BAL 1B, OF 224.25 23.62
203.89 Jarred Kelenic SEA OF 199.25 -4.64
204.52 Jesse Winker CIN OF 205.75 1.23
207.48 Jurickson Profar SD 2B, OF 194.75 -12.73
208.07 Andrew McCutchen PHI OF 211.25 3.18
209.59 AJ Pollock LAD OF 232.75 23.16
210.48 J.D. Davis NYM 3B, OF 207.25 -3.23
225.33 Andrew Benintendi BOS OF 211.5 -13.83
228.26 Leody Taveras TEX OF 229 0.74
232 Chris Taylor LAD 2B, SS, OF 250 18
235 Austin Hays BAL OF 228.5 -6.5
239.07 Lorenzo Cain MLW OF 262.75 23.68
241.56 Hunter Dozier KC 1B, OF 232.75 -8.81
248.15 Jon Berti MIA 2B, OF 249 0.85
249.59 Brandon Nimmo NYM OF 269.75 20.16
251.15 Manuel Margot TB OF 287 35.85
254.48 Yasiel Puig ATL OF 287 32.52
255 Nick Senzel CIN OF 261.75 6.75
264.3 Garrett Hampson COL 2B, OF 260.25 -4.05
264.93 Kole Calhoun ARZ OF 262.75 -2.18
269.3 Jo Adell LAA OF 245.25 -24.05
277.22 David Peralta ARZ OF 320.75 43.53
278.74 Mark Canha OAK OF 275.75 -2.99
280.93 Aaron Hicks NYY OF 286.75 5.82
297.56 Mitch Haniger SEA OF 325.25 27.69
298.93 Raimel Tapia COL OF 283 -15.93
299.52 Bryan Reynolds PIT OF 307.5 7.98
307.67 David Dahl COL OF 271.25 -36.42
309.22 Willie Calhoun TEX OF 314.5 5.28
311.37 Mauricio Dubon SF 2B, SS, OF 347.5 36.13
319.48 Alex Kirilloff MIN OF 294.25 -25.23
319.52 Adam Duvall ATL OF 316 -3.52
334.7 Scott Kingery PHI 2B, OF 271 -63.7
338.59 Austin Slater SF OF 361.75 23.16
344.44 Kevin Pillar COL OF 287.5 -56.94
352.74 Alex Dickerson SF OF 395.25 42.51
355.22 Avisail Garcia MLW OF 378.5 23.28
356.56 Corey Dickerson MIA OF 364 7.44
365.74 Jackie Bradley Jr. BOS OF 386.75 21.01
370.11 Oscar Mercado CLE OF 360.25 -9.86
373.85 Cristian Pache ATL OF 383 9.15
389.11 Cedric Mullins BAL OF 315.25 -73.86
389.19 Shogo Akiyama CIN OF 368.5 -20.69
389.37 Michael Chavis BOS 1B, 2B, OF 372 -17.37
399.74 JaCoby Jones DET OF 362.75 -36.99
408.11 Sam Hilliard COL OF 414.75 6.64
408.59 Joc Pederson LAD OF 408 -0.59
413.41 Justin Upton LAA OF 425.75 12.34
415.63 Franchy Cordero KC OF 396.25 -19.38
426.3 Josh Naylor CLE OF 421.25 -5.05
431.59 Gregory Polanco PIT OF 428 -3.59
435.11 Andrew Stevenson WAS OF 438.75 3.64
435.59 Jason Heyward CHC OF 442 6.41
436.37 Adam Eaton WAS OF 365.75 -70.62
437.15 Robbie Grossman OAK OF 378.5 -58.65
459.56 Shin-Soo Choo TEX OF 452.5 -7.06
468.78 Edward Olivares KC OF 420 -48.78
470.56 Miguel Andujar NYY OF 422.75 -47.81
476.26 Jared Oliva PIT OF 433.5 -42.76
478.33 Marwin Gonzalez MIN 1B, 2B, 3B, OF 471.75 -6.58
478.7 Stephen Piscotty OAK OF 474 -4.7
482.04 Tyler O’Neill STL OF 494.75 12.71
482.11 Kevin Kiermaier TB OF 421.25 -60.86
486.48 Roman Quinn PHI OF 422 -64.48
495.11 Nomar Mazara CWS OF 458.25 -36.86
497.67 Myles Straw HOU OF 487.25 -10.42
498.81 Adam Frazier PIT 2B, OF 498.75 -0.06
503.33 Yoshi Tsutsugo TB 3B, OF 471 -32.33
512.37 Harrison Bader STL OF 467.5 -44.87
521.74 Hunter Renfroe TB OF 505.25 -16.49
525.22 DJ Stewart BAL OF 528.25 3.03
547.26 Kike Hernandez LAD 2B, OF 560.5 13.24
550.96 Julio Rodriguez SEA OF 463.25 -87.71
572.11 Mike Tauchman NYY OF 502.25 -69.86
577.15 Aristides Aquino CIN OF 554.25 -22.9
588.3 Lewis Brinson MIA OF 512 -76.3
593.59 Monte Harrison MIA OF 491.5 -102.09
598.89 Brandon Marsh LAA OF 526.75 -72.14
602.74 Tim Locastro ARZ OF 610.25 7.51
607.07 Ryan Braun MLW OF 514.75 -92.32
613.15 Seth Beer ARZ OF 603.5 -9.65
613.59 Ian Desmond COL OF 598.5 -15.09
629.33 Josh Lowe TB OF 620 -9.33
631.48 Jarren Duran BOS OF 573 -58.48
634.59 Brett Gardner NYY OF 585.25 -49.34
636.63 Josh Reddick HOU OF 573 -63.63
640.15 Sam Haggerty SEA OF 533.25 -106.9
649.44 Drew Waters ATL OF 642 -7.44
652.44 Mallex Smith SEA OF 657 4.56
653.78 Jake Fraley SEA OF 584.75 -69.03
658.7 Delino DeShields CLE OF 650 -8.7
661.22 Taylor Trammell SEA OF 668.25 7.03
662.89 Tyler Naquin CLE OF 681.25 18.36
669.74 Magneuris Sierra MIA OF 642.75 -26.99
670.48 Yairo Munoz BOS OF 597 -73.48
676.93 Domingo Santana CLE OF 597.75 -79.18
677.59 Lane Thomas STL OF 661 -16.59
682.89 Harold Castro DET OF 713.75 30.86
683.85 Cole Tucker PIT OF 606.25 -77.6
685.3 Brent Rooker MIN OF 632.25 -53.05
687.33 Brian Goodwin CIN OF 710.75 23.42
688.56 Adam Haseley PHI OF 715.5 26.94
688.85 Daz Cameron DET OF 659.5 -29.35
695.63 Na Sung-bum FA OF NA NA
702.78 Dexter Fowler STL OF 670.25 -32.53
704.74 Rusney Castillo BOS OF 726.75 22.01
705.11 Taylor Ward LAA OF 703.75 -1.36
706.63 Trevor Larnach MIN OF NA NA
710.15 JJ Bleday MIA OF 736.75 26.6
711.33 Jose Marmolejos SEA OF 664.25 -47.08
714.7 Ender Inciarte ATL OF 695.5 -19.2
714.85 Tim Lopes SEA OF 665.75 -49.1
715.15 Anthony Alford PIT OF 686.25 -28.9
715.37 Darin Ruf SF OF 683.75 -31.62
717.52 Dee Strange-Gordon SEA 2B, OF 743.25 25.73
721.89 Nick Markakis ATL OF 722 0.11
722.04 Adam Engel CWS OF 740.25 18.21
728.63 Khalil Lee KC OF 742.75 14.12
728.74 Jake Bauers CLE 1B, OF 739.75 11.01
728.78 Jorge Mateo SD OF 727.25 -1.53
731.04 Christin Stewart DET OF NA NA
731.67 Michael A. Taylor WAS OF 659.5 -72.17
732.11 Jesus Sanchez MIA OF 750 17.89
735.37 Daniel Johnson CLE OF NA NA
736.52 Heliot Ramos SF OF 687 -49.52
738.7 Tyrone Taylor MLW OF 667.5 -71.2
738.93 Jake Cave MIN OF NA NA
741.33 Kristian Robinson ARZ OF 714 -27.33
741.44 Jay Bruce PHI OF 732 -9.44
741.93 Jose Osuna PIT 1B, OF 733.25 -8.68
741.93 Eli White TEX OF NA NA
743.7 Jaylin Davis SF OF NA NA
744.07 Estevan Florial NYY OF NA NA
744.74 Riley Greene DET OF 746 1.26
745.63 Cameron Maybin CHC OF 749.25 3.62
747.74 Mickey Moniak PHI OF 744.75 -2.99
747.74 Victor Victor Mesa MIA OF 747.5 -0.24
747.89 Jonathan Davis TOR OF 733.25 -14.64
747.93 Bradley Zimmer CLE OF 745 -2.93
748.74 Phillip Ervin SEA OF NA NA
748.85 Brett Phillips TB OF 727.5 -21.35
748.96 Brock Holt WAS 3B, OF NA NA
749.41 Jarrod Dyson CWS OF 742 -7.41
749.44 Phil Gosselin PHI 1B, OF NA NA
749.59 Billy Hamilton CHC OF 723.5 -26.09
749.78 Greg Allen SD OF 747.25 -2.53
749.96 Matt Joyce MIA OF NA NA
750 Jorge Bonifacio DET OF 724.75 -25.25
750 Jake Marisnick NYM OF 747.75 -2.25
750.89 Derek Fisher TOR OF 745.25 -5.64
NA Hunter Bishop SF OF 720.75 NA
NA Albert Almora Jr. CHC OF 743.75 NA
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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