November ADP Market Report: Outfielders

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Brandon Lowe (+10.22.)- See the second basemen article in this series. 

Dominic Smith (+10.92)- See the first basemen article in this series.

Jeff McNeil (+11.55)- See the second basemen article in this series. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Dylan Moore (+22.89)- See the second basemen article in this series. 

Byron Buxton (+11.58)- Talent has never been in question on Buxton and in 2020, he delivered fantasy goodness when he was on the field. He popped 13 homers and swiped two bags, but only managed to play in 39 games for the Twins. Early projections have him playing 136 games and being a 25/20 kind of player and if he played that many games he could be a stud. However, he has only one season in which he played 100+ games and that was in 2017. His great StatCast data is tantalizing, but it comes with a 17.4% swinging strike rate and a 51.2% O-Swing. Buxton is the definition of a boom or bust player, but that is a big risk as a top 125 pick. 

Ryan Mountcastle (+10.7)- See the first basemen article in this series. 

Max Kepler (+11.86)- Kepler followed up his breakout season with disappointing 2020. He hit nine homers and stole three bases and hit .228/.321/.439 in 48 games. His StatCast data is a bit concerning. His barrel percentage, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage all dropped. However, he did increase his walk rate, kept his strikeout rate at a respectable level and had a fantastic 93.7% Z-contact percentage and his expected BA was .258 which is more in line with what we saw in 2019. He is fairly priced even with his rise and could be a nice 4th outfielder in most leagues. 

Daulton Varsho (+27.26)- See the catchers article in this series. 

Trey Mancini (+23.62)- See the first basemen article in this series. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Mike Yastrzemski (-10.09)- Yaz had a huge start to the season, posting the third best WAR in the league behind Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mookie Betts. He didn’t really disappoint in the final month, but it didn’t translate into much more than an empty average profile. He walks a lot and does have a nice hard hit percentage, but it is hard to see a major step forward in the power department or for him to keep the batting average high with an inflated .370 BABIP. I would expect the price to fall some more and it would need to in order for him to be worth drafting. 

Ramon Laureano (-11.97)- It is not surprising to see Laureano begin to drop considering his poor 2020. He hit just six home runs and stole only two bases with a .213 batting average. On the plus side, he stayed on the field which has been an issue previously for him. Part of the issue for him was he got passive at the plate. His swing percentage dropped 8.4% and that was even worse inside of the zone and while that led to more walks, it didn’t help his strikeout rate. When he did swing and make contact, the hard contact wasn’t as often as it was in 2019. His exit velocity also took dip by two miles per hour. His ability to steal bases and the power he showed in 2019 will keep him as a top 150 player, but there are better options at that spot. 

Tommy Edman (-11.29)- See the second basemen article in this series. 

Victor Robles (-13.6)- There were a lot of warning signs in Robles’ StatCast profile after 2019 and it got even worse in 2020. Robles had an exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xBA, and barrel percentage in the bottom fifth percentile of the league. He really struggled against fastballs with a .190 expected batting average. He really struggled against right handed pitching in 2020, hitting just .180. Considering he doesn’t walk, his strikeout rate jumped up, and he hit at the bottom of the order in 39 of his 52 games played, there isn’t much to be super excited about. We saw the upside in 2019, he is still just 23 years old, his defense should keep him getting playing time and the price isn’t prohibitive, but he is a bottom of the order hitter that has a lot of downside. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

A.J. Pollock (+23.16)- Pollock quietly had a great season for the Dodgers, hitting .276/.314/.566 with 16 home runs and two stolen bases, so it makes sense that his stock is rising. The hard part is that Pollock is hard to trust considering he has not played more than 113 games since 2015. If the DH is in the NL, Pollock could get more rest which would hopefully help keep him on the field. He is a risk/reward pick that is enticing if he doesn’t continue to rise too much. 

Chris Taylor (+18)- See the second basemen article in this series. 

Lorenzo Cain (+23.68)- Cain opted out of the 2020 season after just five games and that may have led to his draft position being suppressed in the early drafts as people may have forgotten about him a bit. He is going to be 35 in April and is coming off of a down year in 2019, but he still was able to hit 11 home runs and steal 18 bases with a respectable average. If his BABIP normalizes to his pre 2019 levels and, he could get on base enough to steal 20+ bases again with the upside of his 2018 levels at the top of a good lineup in Milwaukee. 

Brandon Nimmo (+20.16)- Nimmo quietly put up a respectable season for the Mets hitting .280./404/.484 with eight home runs and a stolen base in 55 games. Nimmo isn’t going to be a super star, but he is a great player in OBP formats and should deliver some pop and stolen bases with a decent average and a ton of runs on top of the Mets lineup. If he were to be a part of Lindor trade, his stock could rise a bit more in a better park. 

Manuel Margot (+35.85)- Margot had a great second half hitting .263 with a homer and 10 stolen bases in his last 25 games. He built upon that in the playoffs hitting .276/.344/.552 with five home runs and two stolen bases. The problem with Margot is the team he plays on. The Rays are notorious for platooning and while Margot has earned a full time role, it is not guaranteed. If he was able to get 500 plate appearances, he could be a 15/30 guy. He is still just outside the top 250, but that should continue to change. 

Yasiel Puig (+32.52)- I love Puig, but I don’t get this upward movement. He didn’t play in 2020 after his contract with the Braves was voided when he tested positive for COVID-19. It is clear there are a number of teams that won’t touch him because of his persona in spite of his talent. I need to see him sign a contract before I am willing to draft him and if that happens, his ADP could jump 100+ spots. 

David Peralta (+43.53)- After a disappointing season in 2019, Peralta didn’t do much to redeem himself in 2020. He hit only five home runs and stole one base in 54 games. At least he played that many games as he has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career, having never playing in 150 games in a season. He is a pretty safe bet for some batting average, but it is empty unless he can find his swing from 2018. 

Mitch Haniger (+27.69)- Haniger is a guy that must be fantasy kryptonite for some people. He hasn’t played a game since June of 2019 due to injuries and has been plagued by injuries much of his career in the Majors and minors. The talent is immense, but there is a risk you get absolutely nothing. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Jurickson Profar (-12.73)- It feels like we have been waiting for the Profar breakout forever. We finally got it in 2020 when he hit .278/.343/.428 with seven home runs and seven stolen bases in 56 games. This is in spite of starting the season 3-for-37. The door in ADP likely comes from the fact he is a free agent and we don;t know where he will be, but he now falls into a post-hype sleeper category that could be interesting as long as he has a full-time role. 

Andrew Benintendi (-13.83)- Oh how the mighty has fallen! Benintendi was a second round pick in 2019 and now is going outside the top 200. On top of it all, he only played in 14 games for the Red Sox last season, hitting no home runs and stealing just one base on three attempts. Assuming health, he should be able to be a usable player, but he appears to be a compiler at this point and it is hard to want to invest in a compiler coming off of a lost season due to injury. 

Jo Adell (-24.05)- Adell is the perfect example of the fantasy industry abandoning a prospect after he disappoints in their initial call up. The tools are apparent. He has great exit velocity and speed, but he swings and misses way too much. Only Miguel Sano had a higher strikeout rate in the Majors than Adell. That being said, he has amazing natural ability if he can learn to make better contact. It is a huge gamble, but one that is cheaply priced. 

Ramiel Tapia (-15.93)- Why do people hate Ramiel Tapia? He hit .321/.369/.402 with a home run and eight stolen bases in 206 plate appearance for the Rockies in 2020. He also led off every game he played for the Rockies from August 20th on. Yes, his StatCast numbers are awful, but he makes a lot of zone contact and increased his walk rate in 2020, though it is still not great. He is a cheap source of stolen bases and runs with an average that shouldn’t hurt you and could help late in a draft.