The last of the hitter Steamer and I reviews is upon us, as I recap how my Pod Projection compared to Steamer’s preseason forecast, and how both systems performed against what actually transpired. I was significantly more bullish about A.J. Pollock’s 2015 prospects than Steamer was. In fact, out of all full-time players, the difference between the two Pollock forecasts was the greatest.

Who knew Pollock would go on to finish as the second most valuable outfielder and overall hitter?!

Read the rest of this entry »

Once upon a time, I was a Phillies fan. I grew up in a mostly empty Veteran’s Stadium watching Doug Glanville and Wendell Magee and Rico Brogna. Occasionally, my past links to Philadelphia help my fantasy rosters. That happened this year with Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr.

Read the rest of this entry »

So there’s this table I’m going to show you. Actually, you can already see it. I know you can. But humor me and pretend that only the next word appears after you read this one, and that the table simply hasn’t manifested yet. This table holds within it Christian Yelich’s career statistics, parsed by year. It’s unlike a normal table because I prorated all of the counting stats to 600 plate appearances. The rest, however, are rate statistics, or component metrics presented as rate statistics. Basically, everything is comparable on a playing time basis. What it will all tell you is what ended up being a discarded title for this post:

Christian Yelich is a remarkably consistent hitter.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Minnesota Twins dealt Aaron Hicks after parts of three uninspired seasons and I’m sure many of you were like me and thought this could be a case similar to Carlos Gomez. Gomez came up as a Mets prospect. He was raw, speedy super-athlete who showed the defense for center in the minors, but he was projected to add power as he filled out. The Mets rushed him to the majors at age-21 after just three-plus seasons in the minors and he’s been a major leaguer ever since.

He was the key piece in the Johan Santana deal for Minnesota and that likely encouraged them to continue the rushed development of Gomez as they immediately inserted him into the starting centerfield role at 22 years old. After a rotten 74 wRC+ in 614 PA, his playing time was drastically cut the following season.

Unfortunately, he played even worse (64 wRC+ in 349 PA). He was traded again, this time to Milwaukee in a straight up deal for J.J. Hardy. He labored through two half-seasons upon arrival, marred by three DL stints, and didn’t look much different than the Minnesota version with a 79 wRC+ in 576 PA. Hicks’ backstory has some key differences.

Read the rest of this entry »

Thirty-year old Chris Coghlan just had his best season of his career. He’s only surpassed 500 plate appearances twice in his seven-year career, and as a guy without a standout tool and some established platoon issues, he obviously owns a substantial ‘bust rate.’ As in, he could be unusable next year, even though he was worth $6 in mixed leagues this past season.

And so, even though we liked some boring veterans at third base, it’s time to take inspiration in another direction — where’s the line, when you should bypass the veteran for the unproven prospect? Is it right around a guy like Chris Coghlan?

Read the rest of this entry »

For our third Pod Projection review of the season, I will recap what was predicted and what actually happened for George Springer in his sophomore season. Refresh your memory by checking back on my original Pod Projection post.

Heading into 2014, Springer ranked as one of the top prospects in baseball and didn’t disappoint upon his arrival to Houston. He did exactly what his minor league record suggested he might — strike out a lot, supplement those swings and misses with a strong walk rate, and display immense power. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by a quadriceps injury, but naturally, expectations were high for 2015.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Steamer and I reviews continue this week, which pits a player’s preseason Pod Projection against his Steamer projection. Today, I’ll review 2014 breakout Corey Dickerson, who unfortunately saw his plate appearance total cut in half due to various injuries. I was far more bullish on his prospects than Steamer was.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last winter, the Cardinals paid a steep price to acquire one season of Jason Heyward. The club is poised to let Heyward walk via free agency. My colleagues at MLBTR predict a 10-year, $200 million contract. Luckily for St. Louis, there’s very little pressure to bring Heyward back. That’s because Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk had successful seasons.

Read the rest of this entry »

2015 Visualized: Shortstop
2015 Visualized: Third Base
2015 Visualized: Second Base
2015 Visualized: First Base
2015 Visualized: Catcher

* * *

For the next few weeks, the RotoGraphs staff will devote an entire week to each defensive position, including spotlights on particular players as well as trends throughout the 2015 season. This week, we’re highlighting outfielders.

I don’t claim to be a Tableau (or data visualization) whiz by any means, but I thought it would be cool to visually represent the outfield landscape in 2015 — with some analysis sprinkled in.

Steamer and ZiPS represent premier player projection systems; FanGraphs’ Depth Charts combines the two, and the writing staff allocate playing time accordingly. The playing time part is less important relative to the combined projections, as aggregated projections tend to perform better than standalones.

I compared projected wOBA (weighted on-base average) from the preseason to actual wOBA (1) by team and (2) by player within team. Unlike WAR, wOBA is a rate metric, so it does not need to be scaled according to playing time.

Read the rest of this entry »

For our second Pod Projection review of the season, I will recap what was predicted and what actually happened for rookie Yasmany Tomas. Refresh your memory by checking back on my original Pod Projection post.

As a Cuban rookie with no minor league data to work with and limited statistics to analyze from his work in Cuba, Tomas was a challenge to forecast. Essentially, everyone was really just taking an educated guess and it was more like a 3rd grade education than grad school level.

Read the rest of this entry »