Reviewing 2015 Pod Projections: Yasmany Tomas

For our second Pod Projection review of the season, I will recap what was predicted and what actually happened for rookie Yasmany Tomas. Refresh your memory by checking back on my original Pod Projection post.

As a Cuban rookie with no minor league data to work with and limited statistics to analyze from his work in Cuba, Tomas was a challenge to forecast. Essentially, everyone was really just taking an educated guess and it was more like a 3rd grade education than grad school level.

Plate Appearances: 600 projected vs 426 actual

So it already begins. I began my support for this projection by claiming, “Unless he’s a complete flop at the plate, he’s going to be in the lineup all year assuming he remains healthy.” Oops. Tomas actually opened the year in the minors, though he did make his debut shortly thereafter in mid-April. But thanks to atrocious defense at both third base and right field, the Diamondbacks logjam at the hot corner and in the outfield and a disappointing bat, he was unable to convince manager Chip Hale to keep him in the starting lineup every day.

K%: 21% projected vs 25.8% actual

I took a bit of flak in the comments of my original post regarding my strikeout rate projection as it was believed to be too generous. The commenter was proven right, as I was far too optimistic about Tomas’ ability to make contact with Major League pitchers. His 15.1% SwStk% ranked 11th worst among hitters who recorded at least 400 plate appearances. Unfortunately, he didn’t improve as the season progressed, as he hovered around the 30% mark over the final three months, versus rates in the low 20% range in May and June.

GB%/LD%/FB%: 44% / 20% / 36% projected vs 55% / 22% / 23% actual

Sadly, I had zero batted ball distribution data to look at and scouting reports don’t typically mention a hitter’s ground ball or fly ball tendencies. So I simply assigned him around a league average line. Instead, he took his hatred out on those innocent worms, as he posted the 12th highest ground ball rate in baseball. That’s not supposed to happen for a supposed power hitter.

BABIP: .310 projected vs .354 actual

Without any batted ball data, it was hard to project his BABIP, but no one would have foresaw a .354 mark. His career Cuba mark was just .335, so you wouldn’t expect him to improve upon that here. He hit a ton of ground balls, which are typically good for BABIP, but not when it’s coming off the bat of a guy you wouldn’t exactly consider a burner. Only four pop-ups all year helped, as well as a healthy line drive rate. He also used all fields and actually went up the middle most often, which should likely also get credited with an assist. Obviously, I expect some regression next season.

HR/FB Ratio: 15% projected vs 13% actual

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I had no way of calculating what his Cuban HR/FB rate was without batted ball data. But I do know he homered once in every 22 at-bats or so there. With Arizona, his AB/HR rate actually doubled to once in every 45 at-bats. That’s quite a loss of power. We figured some reduction, but that was excessive and surprising. Heck, his ISO was well below the league average at just .128! His batted ball distance was respectable, but doesn’t hint at any sort of poor fortune, and his xHR/FB rate was nearly identical to his actual mark. While I don’t know how much HR/FB rate upside he has, he could easily double his homer output by simply hitting more fly balls.

RBI and Runs: 84 and 71 vs 48 and 40 actual

Extrapolated to the 600 plate appearances I projected, Tomas would have finished with 68 runs batted in and 56 runs scored. Because I proved too optimistic about his performance at the plate, my RBI and runs scored projections were too high. Interestingly, it wasn’t due to a poor lineup slot, something you might expect given his weak bat and the reasonable alternatives in the Diamondbacks lineup. He actually spent 63% of his plate appearances in the four or five hole in the order.

SB: 5 projected vs 5 actual

Hey, I got one right! Of course, this may have been seven if he continued that pace over 600 plate appearances. But let me bask in my one correct projection. For a man his size, he has shown surprising speed. As I stated above, he’s certainly no burner. But, he did manage to hit three triples and collect 12 infield hits.

Now the question becomes what to expect next year. From a strictly rate perspective, he should most certainly improve. However, he might not have a spot in the starting lineup as the outfield remains crowded and third base appears to be taken.

–

Below is a summary of how Tomas was projected by all systems, along with his actual totals and those extrapolated to the same number of plate appearances I projected.

Only ZiPS has a projection at the time I published my Pod Projection. Obviously, we both expected Tomas to earn more playing time and were therefore off on all the counting stats, save his stolen base total. Despite an even more optimistic strikeout rate projection than me, ZiPS still forecasted a lower batting average, and mine projection almost nailed it. ZiPS actually nailed the RBI projection when extrapolated to 600 plate appearances, though missed like me on the runs scored. We also both proved too low on the BABIP, but expected much more home run power.