The Cardinals Outfield: Next Generation

Last winter, the Cardinals paid a steep price to acquire one season of Jason Heyward. The club is poised to let Heyward walk via free agency. My colleagues at MLBTR predict a 10-year, $200 million contract. Luckily for St. Louis, there’s very little pressure to bring Heyward back. That’s because Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk had successful seasons.

Grichuk, 24, debuted at the end of 2014. The right-handed hitter contributed 90 wRC+ and deceptively good defense over 116 plate appearances. He entered 2015 as a platoon option and posted an impressive 3.1 WAR season in just 350 plate appearances.

The Cardinals plan to start him in center field next season where he could be an under-the-radar source of production. As a fantasy player, Grichuk has one carrying skill – he hits the ball exceptionally hard.

Prior to landing on the disabled list in mid-August, he had been doing his best Giancarlo Stanton impression. His hard hit contact rate was up around 40 percent. His fly balls averaged over 300 feet. In 312 plate appearances, he had 15 home runs and 43 extra base hits to go with a .284/.333/.561 triple slash. Upon returning in September, he hit just .206/.289/.441 while making throws like this. Clearly, he wasn’t fully healthy.

There are two problems with Grichuk’s profile. He strikes out about 30 percent of the time due to a high 15.6 percent swinging strike rate. He’s also impatient so he lacks the high walk rate of most top power hitters.

Most of his whiffs come on pitches outside of the strike zone. His contact rate on pitches in the zone is only slightly below league average. Therefore, he has potential for a plate discipline related breakout. Unlike with some hitters, taking more pitches won’t automatically translate into more strikeouts. He could conceivably increase his walk rate while trimming the strikeout rate.

Grichuk is also an extreme pull hitter. His outfield power ranges from the left field pole to right center. Anything to straight away right field is usually an easy fly out. He hits hardly anything on the ground to the right side. Teams can easily shift him. Check out his spray chart.

Piscotty, soon-to-be 25, is a different type of hitter. He sprays the ball to all fields and also makes hard contact. However, the righty’s swing is much more line drive and ground ball oriented. He profiles as a high average, high OBP hitter with 15 to 20 home run power.

In 256 plate appearances, he hit .305/.359/.494 with seven home runs and a .372 BABIP. A 21.9 percent strikeout rate and 11.1 percent swinging strikeout rate represent the downside of his plate discipline. His highest minor league strikeout rate was only 16.7 percent. I expect him to iron out the kinks in 2016.

As a young hitter, there is room to wonder if Piscotty might not be in the process of trading contact and discipline for more power. We’re left with a wide range of possible outcomes to ponder. Even if he continues to whiff at his current rate, he should be a valuable fantasy commodity. The issue is predicting exactly where you’ll receive the production.

Both Grichuk and Piscotty have somewhat unsettled roles. Piscotty usually hit second, fifth, or seventh while Grichuk could be found scattered all over the lineup. To me, Grichuk seems like an ideal cleanup or fifth hitter. If Piscotty reverts to his minor league strikeout rates, I might prefer him to bat second behind Matt Carpenter. There’s also a chance both outfielders could bat near the bottom of the order if Matt Adams, Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Moss, and Yadier Molina all rebound.

For fantasy, I like Grichuk and Piscotty as complimentary pieces, but it’s difficult to project their exact role and performance. Too many variables are in play. Both players come with borderline star ceilings but they could also post mediocre numbers. If you draft either as a starter, I recommend acquiring a low-cost veteran handcuff like Nick Markakis or Marlon Byrd.

There is going to be some hype associated with the Cardinals young outfielders. If you want them, be prepared to pay.